“A week ago we were a small chance in a huge race and now we have to be a great chance.
“Sometimes you go to these really good races maybe realising you can’t win but you definitely can’t win if you don’t start so that is why you give them their chance.”
Marsh took the unusual step of starting El Vencedor in an open handicap at Ellerslie last Saturday, a week out from a Group 1, because the big boy takes plenty of racing to keep fit and Marsh says that extra run could be crucial now.
“With those other two top mares out of the race La Crique looks the danger to us,” admits Marsh.
“But she hasn’t raced for a while whereas our horse is rock hard fit and that has to count for something.”
The news just kept getting better for El Vencedor on Wednesday when he drew barrier 2 in a race with no other natural frontrunners and very few go-forward horses.
While anything can happen in major races Marsh and just about everybody else who follows the form expects El Vencedor to lead with La Crique almost falling into the trail behind him without having to spend any energy.
If that is the case the race could develop into what the market predicts, a two-horse battle up the Te Rapa straight, even though the best versions of Ladies Man and Sharp N Smart could rewrite that script.
“He doesn’t have to lead but I think he probably will and he will be hard to catch,” says Marsh.
So who would win if El Vencedor leads and La Crique sits behind him?
That probably comes down to tempo, with La Crique undoubtedly faster but El Vencedor may be stronger if he gets his own way and then gets a head of steam up from the 600m for in-form jockey Rory Hutchings.
Victory would also take El Vencedor to the top of the points table for the $500,000 Rich Hill Middle Distance series, a series that has changed enormously with Snazzytavi being sidelined.
If there is surprising mid-race pressure tomorrow Ladies Man and Sharp N Smart come into play while One Bold Cat would also if the weather forecasts were wrong and the heavens open overnight.
The hardest horse to rate is Numerian, the Australian veteran trained by Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald, who have already proven they can successfully travel horses.
Numerian is more a weight-for-age journeyman than a scary Aussie star these days but he has run second in an Australian Cup two years ago and won the Hollindale in Queensland on a heavy track in May.
Like many in tomorrow’s race he has gone from being a good place chance on Tuesday night to a winning hope tomorrow, albeit that nine-year-olds don’t win Group 1 weight-for-age races often.
Marsh is also looking forward to Bourbon Proof (R7, No.3) stepping up to 2000m in tomorrow’s $275,000 Legacy Lodge Waikato Guineas after his last-start fourth in the Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old.
“The Derby has been his big aim all along so stepping up in distance will really help.
“He hasn’t missed a trick so he is a huge chance this week.”
He meets obvious dangers in Karaka Millions runner-up Tuxedo and Golden Century as the road to the Derby starts to get serious.
Marsh is realistic about the enormity of the challenge facing Mercurial in a stunning BCD Sprint tomorrow and opts for Sinhaman (R3, No.1) as his next best chance of the huge meeting away from El Vencedor and Bourbon Proof.
Legends Day at Te Rapa
When: Tomorrow, first race 12.30pm.
What: Waikato Thoroughbred Racing’s glamour meeting of the year.
Who: At least 10 Group 1 winners and three visiting Australian gallopers.
Highlights: $700,000 Herbie Dyke Stakes, $500,000 BCD Sprint, $350,000 Sir Patrick Hogan Karapiro Classic, $275,000 David And Karyn Ellis Fillies Classic, $275,000 Legacy Lodge Waikato Guineas.
Bonus: Some of New Zealand’s great retired gallopers like Mufhasa and Seachange will be honoured on track.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
