But if Don’t Stop Dreaming leads tonight in a race that lacks the depth to have real pressure, Merlin may be forced to sit outside him the last 1000m to beat him.
That is how Merlin won the NZ Free-For-All last start so it isn’t impossible but Don’t Stop Dreaming was allowed to miss that race after his oh-so-close second to Swayzee in the New Zealand Cup three days earlier.
“We learned last year with Akuta after he chased Swayzee home in the Cup then ran three or four lengths below his best in the Free-For-All that we didn’t need to do that again,” explains Nathan.
“But he is very well and missing the race did him some good. We took him into Addington last Saturday and he worked great.
“I think he is exactly where he needs to be and we want to lead and if Merlin or any of the others beat him then they will have been too good.”
The TAB bookies opened the pair up close enough to joint favourites but Don’t Stop Dreaming looks certain to start favourite.
Later in the night, the NZ Derby is a clash of those same two stables at the top of the market as Nathan and Mark Purdon have Chase A Dream and Vessem up against Better Knuckle Up and Jeremiah for the Merlin camp.
While Chase A Dream has been beaten fair and square in his past two starts Nathan expects a better performance tonight.
“I think he has needed the racing and you will see a better horse this week,” he warns.
With the crop so even the Derby could be decided by which of the leading contenders can get to the markers without spending too much energy but on recent form Better Knuckle Up looks the most logical bet.
Tonight’s other Derby for the trotters looks far less complex as superstar Australian trotter Keayang Zahara looks unbeatable unless she makes a mistake or races well below her best.
In tonight’s open trot standing start manners will be crucial as the two favourites, Oscar Bonavena and Muscle Mountain, both start from a 20m backmark over 2000m so the one who begins the quicker should get a tactical advantage hard to pull back over the sprint trip.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.