Ironically, he looks more trustworthy from his handicap in a standing start tonight and the composition of the field and staggered handicaps mean he should be on the back of his rivals with less than two laps to go and ultimately be too quick for them.
But for all their proven power and pace the must-watch horse at Alexandra Park tonight is Marketplace, making his northern debut in the Alabar Classic.
He won his last six races last season, including the Harness Millions and two Group 1s and he has the X-factor of a horse heading right to the top.
While there seems little doubt he will win a Derby or two in 2025 trainer Regan Todd says the strong gelding is almost on a hiding to nothing as a $1.25 favourite tonight. “It is so hard for these top horses fresh-up,” he says.
“This is the start of a very long 3-year-old season and they can’t have hard runs every start.
“He is up here for the Harness Millions next week and the Derby so this is a kick-off point and I will leave it up to Craig [Ferguson, driver] as to what he does at the start.
“Once I hand him the reins my job is done.”
So don’t be surprised to see Marketplace driven neutrally off the gate before Ferguson decides whether to head forward or drive him with a sit.
Had key rival Ruibra, who was excellent last start, drawn inside Marketplace, the favourite would be far more vulnerable and maybe if he gets across him from his wide draw at the start he will test him.
But there is something a bit special about Marketplace, even if it isn’t on full beam tonight.
The question is, at $1.25 do you want to join in for the ride?
Three-year-old pacing filly Beside Me is far better placed to show her absolute best on her northern debut in the Caduceus Club Ladyship Stakes even from her second line draw.
She is race hard after thrashing older pacers at Addington last start and that could be a crucial advantage tonight as several of her key rivals tonight in Winelight, Youretheonethatiwant and Arafura are fresh up for the new season while others like Without You and Debbie Lincoln also face second line draws.
It is never easy for South Island horses to win fresh-up in group company at Alexandra Park but Beside Me, with her long stride and coltish physique, looks the perfect filly to pull it off.
Further south Bet N Win looks to cap his rise up our trotting ranks in the Fred Shaw NZ Trotting Champs at Addington in which he has a huge advantage over key rival Muscle Mountain.
Bet N Win starts on the front line and should roll forward to lead or trail, whereas Muscle Mountain starts on the second line with driver Ben Hope telling the Herald he will drive the giant trotter to swoop late, suggesting Bet N Win has the tactical edge.
Friday Night Bets
1: Hillbilly Blues (Alex Park, R3, No.6): Big win last start and suited by small field here. Driver suggests he could be even more potent driven off speed so should win.
2: Eyre I Will (Alex Park, R5, No.9): Second to Hillbilly Blues last time and drawn to follow out a fast beginner in mobile trot. Looks good each way value as warm favourite is making Alex Park debut which is tricky.
3: Beside Me (Alex Park, R7, No.10): While second line draws fresh up at Alex Park have beaten better fillies than her, she has a fitness edge over her rivals so should get away with it so can add as a multi anchor.
4: Oscar Bonavena (Alex Park, R9, No.7): The other multi-anchor. Because he is better than these and if he behaves should win.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
