Racing: Why punters should be careful on Probabeel's return

Probabeel has her eye on the All-Star Mile trophy. Photo / Racing Victoria

She's New Zealand's best racehorse but two of the biggest names in the industry say punters should tread carefully when Probabeel resumes in Australia on Saturday.

The Kiwi mare starts her campaign, aimed at the A$5 million All-Star Mile at The Valley next month, in a winnable race at Caulfield, also in Melbourne, for which she is the second favourite.

Even drawn widest of the 11 starters and carrying 60kg Probabeel has a huge class edge on her rivals.

But the 1200m is at least 400m short of her best and what is more concerning for those contemplating backing the multi-Group 1 winner is her first-up record.

Probabeel has been beaten in four of her five starts to begin new campaigns and the one she did win was a hard watch as she came off the bit around the home bend before beating average rivals at Awapuni 13 months ago.

She showed those same don't-tell-me-what-to-do tendencies in her Geelong trials nine days ago and the sprint trips coupled with her natural relaxed nature seem to make her vulnerable when fresh.

Trainer Jamie Richards wasn't worried by Probabeel's no-fuss effort at the trials last week and suggests you will see a sharper horse on Saturday.

"With the blinkers on and [jockey] Damian [Lane] giving her some encouragement I am sure she will perk up," says Richards.

"But yes, it clearly isn't her grand final and she will improve with it."

Lane admits the Geelong trial was only okay and he joins in the chorus telling punters to be careful.

"She is a lovely mare but she will settle back and I am sure she will hit the line hard," Lane said.

"But whether she can win or not, I can't tip her with any confidence."

Caulfield can be cruel on those horses settled back and coming wide, especially if the fast lane develops down in the inside which is possible as the rail is back in the true position after being out 9m last week.

For all of Melody Belle's history-making feats, Probabeel is probably New Zealand's best thoroughbred but there are enough things against her to suggest punters shouldn't pin their hopes on the wonderful mare in the Cambridge Stud chequers.

She is remarkably one of only two horses Richards has racing on Saturday, with Quattro Quinta the favourite but by no means over the line in the Group 3 Woburn Farm Classic at the major Taranaki meeting.

He was good without being dominant winning the Wellesley at Trentham over his two key rivals.

But he does have the benefit of Opie Bosson in the saddle, with New Zealand's best jockey travelling to New Plymouth on a flying visit for just one ride.

Silent Achiever passes

New Zealand has lost its third exceptional galloper in a week with the death of Silent Achiever at Valachi Downs.

Her loss was not as public as the deaths of Rock On Wood and Te Akau Shark but the 12 year-old may have bested them.

She burst into prominence beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, then won the NZ Derby and the next season beat the likes of Dundeel in the Ranvet Stakes and BMW in Sydney, two of the most high-profile wins by a New Zealand thoroughbred in the last decade.

She went on to finish third in the Cox Plate for trainer Roger James.