The topweight The Cossack (R8, No1) has to carry on Wednesday is less than ideal over the long trip but he has developed into an outstanding hurdler, having won the Great Northern, Waikato and Wellington Hurdles, the latter at Hastings when he downed jumps hero Tallyho Twinkletoe and two key race rivals in Aigne and Chief Sequoyah.
That win costs The Cossack 2.5kg in the weights, and after winning the lead-up race at Riccarton on Saturday, Chief Sequoyah is favourite today.
"I think we can still beat him because he didn't beat that much on Saturday," says Nelson matter-of-factly of Chief Sequoyah.
"Sure, the weight may be a factor, but this is a good horse, his record shows that."
With Riccarton set to be close to its heaviest today, The Cossack's record of only two wins in 10 starts on heavy tracks may put some punters off his $ 3.60 second-favourite quote but Nelson isn't concerned by that.
"Since we've had him hurdling, he has won on a heavy11 and a heavy10 at Te Aroha, so I think it will be fine."
Getting the 65kg minimum, Chief Sequoyah has to be tough to beat because he has already proven he can handle this week's version of the Riccarton mud and trainer John Wheeler says the extra distance of the National allows the 7-year-old to be ridden exactly how he should be.
"He is quite an aggressive horse who is at his best when you can put him to sleep and only use him late so he doesn't take too much out of himself," says Wheeler.
"Emily [Farr, jockey] did that perfectly on Saturday and he will be ridden the same way again — drop him out early and wait for them to get tired in front of him.
"So I think he has a great chance but I also respect The Cossack because he is a good horse."
Wednesday's meeting is the second of Grand National week, with the fields for the last day at the same venue — featuring the Grand National Steeplechase on Saturday — to be released late this morning.