Australian punters have got emerging star Maluckyday close enough to over the line in today's A$400,000 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill.
But is he really a $1.85 chance?
And you have to hunt around for the $1.85 - most bookies have the son of Zabeel at $1.70.
The gap between that and the $7.50 for New Zealand mare Keep The Peace looks a touch wide.
Caulfield Cup winner Descarado sits between the pair at $4.
Maluckyday could be anything - he could be Australia's best racehorse by the end of the year.
He emerged from Sydney Saturday handicaps to finish second to French stayer Americain as a too-green youngster in last November's Melbourne Cup and looked on the verge of true greatness with the blessing of time.
He went a blinder first-up this preparation in the 1600m Chipping Norton Stakes, which is why everyone wants to be on him in today's 2000m event.
But second up at weight-for-age over 2000m at Rosehill is potentially a dangerous mixture. Ideally Maluckyday is a 2400m handicapper.
That type of horse could be brought undone by a sit-sprint race, which middle distances races in Sydney often are.
"I'm not sure Maluckyday or Descarado could have beaten Wall Street in a Mudgway Stakes [1400m] and Keep The Peace has," says Keep The Peace's trainer Shaune Ritchie.
"That might be the one small advantage we have over the other two horses."
We all know James McDonald will sooner rather than later end up riding overseas. Today he gets his chances to display his wares riding against Jim Cassidy (Maluckyday), Nash Rawiller (Descarado) and Corey Brown on Sacred Choice.
"He's going to need all his talent and all his coolness, but he's got plenty of them," says Ritchie.
The Cambridge trainer believes Keep The Peace is in much better shape than for her two previous trips to Australia.
* King Leonidas (No 8, R1 Te Rapa) epitomises punting today - a reasonably good chance in an even field. He's short on experience, but looked promising when he motored home out wide for third over 1600m on this track last start, which was his fourth visit to the races. The 2100m this time suits better and Paul Duncan knows how to get a stayer fit.
Woodshebe (No 4, R2) couldn't justify her favouritism at Ellerslie last start, but her third after leading was sound given the heavy track. She should be much better suited today.
Chaparrone (No 15, R4) is a High Chaparral filly who has thrown in two very good minor placings lately and deserves a winning turn. She gets to the line strongly and has the inside barrier draw to get the right run.
There is one word to describe Pasta Post (No 1, R7). Actually two, absolute class. He's got 59kg to lump in his first start back today, but if he's going to come back that won't be enough to stop him. Terrific sprint field this with Cent Per Cent (No 7) rating consideration.
Safari (No 1, R9) might have a bit to learn, but the talent is there. She's drawn out a touch, but shouldn't be ignored.
Racing: Big odds on Keep The Peace
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