Phil Gifford: What 'long shots' All Blacks are missing to win Rugby World Cup

Mack Hansen of Ireland is tackled by Ardie Savea during the recent test series. Getty

OPINION
So is all lost for the 2023 Cup? I don't believe so. It's a long shot, but a year can be a long time in rugby.

All the stars have to align to win a Rugby World Cup. Coaching, selection, unity in the squad and an injury-free run all matter, but the biggest need to command the World Cup firmament is to have a team where at least half the players are the best in the world in their position.

So if you're of a nervous disposition and an All Blacks fan, look away now. If the Cup was being held this September, not September 2023, there wouldn't be even a slim chance of an All Blacks victory.

Having had a good look at Northern and Southern Hemisphere teams playing each other over the past month, how many All Blacks would make an imaginary World XV, or at least be neck and neck with other contenders?

There's Will Jordan, although he'd have more chance if he was being played at fullback. Ardie Savea? Maybe. But he is best suited to openside flanker rather than No 8, and as a flanker, would an independently minded selector choose him ahead of Australian captain Michael Hooper, or South African captain Siya Kolisi?

And then unless there's a resounding series win against the Springboks in South Africa ...er ... that's about it.

The magic seven world best players number has been quoted to me by several of our rugby greats over the years, most recently last week. History shows they're right.

All three All Blacks World Cup victories were achieved by teams loaded with men who were the best in their position at the time.

In 1987, check out the likes of John Kirwan, Michael Jones, Buck Shelford, Grant Fox, Sean Fitzpatrick, Gary Whetton, Steve McDowall, AJ Whetton and Joe Stanley.

The All Blacks of 2011 had Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Ma'a Nonu, Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Owen Franks, and they started, before he was injured at training,
with Dan Carter, too.

By 2015, the list of superstars was staggering. The best from 2011 were all back, Carter was fit, and you could add Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith and Dane Coles to the golden best circle. Hell, they even had the best sub in the game, Beauden Barrett, setting Twickenham alight off the bench.

Realistically there's no chance of the 2023 side being blessed with once in a lifetime players like McCaw and Carter. In the past seven years, we've never found replacement midfielders to offer what Nonu and Conrad Smith did. The level loose forward trio McCaw, Read and Kaino reached in 2015 has been matched only by the 1987 trio of Shelford, Jones and AJ Whetton.

None of this talent issue has much, if anything, to do with Ian Foster and the current selectors.

In the firestorm of criticism in the past week, I've yet to see anyone roll out a team list that looks clearly better than the side monstered by Ireland.

So is all lost for the 2023 Cup? I don't believe so. It's a long shot, but a year can be a long time in rugby. Ask the Cup-winning Springboks of 1995 and 2007.

There are young players who next year, with another season of Super Rugby and Southern Hemisphere tests, could reach the levels needed to be hugely competitive at the Cup.

No 8 Cullen Grace springs to mind. I'll back the judgement of the coach who knows him best, Scott Robertson, who's been pushing Grace's case hard whenever he gets the chance.

There's prop Ethan de Groot, now back inside the All Blacks camp with a huge point to prove.

Tighthead Tamaiti Williams has two major advantages: he's enormous, at 140kg, and he's had the benefit at the Crusaders of being coached by Jason Ryan, whose packs prove on a weekly basis that he's the best scrum coach in Super Rugby.

If Folau Fakatava grows in confidence at test level, he has the talent to be a force at halfback.

There's a raw-boned intensity in the currently injured lock Josh Lord that compliments the fact he comes with real height, being slightly taller than Sam Whitelock.

If injury allows the midfield to become settled next year and Jordan is permanently moved to fullback, there is a chance, slim but real, that for the All Blacks, that's a light at the end of the tunnel, not a speeding freight train.