The mountain-course Coast to Coast title still remains out of this Finnish star's grasp. Perhaps this year will be Elina's swansong?
Elina excels in hard and fast races, especially those team-based. She holds an impressive resume of winning most individual events in NZ. But in past Coast to Coast events, Elina has lacked competence and confidence on the river. She has been working hard to improve this by sticking to a beginner-level craft she is more comfortable in. The Coast to Coast is a mountain race which requires top physical prowess but, more importantly, it requires cunning. The former is not a problem for Elina, but the latter is her weakness. If she can be more like the fox, rather than the hare, her excellent fitness level will carry her through with the win, so long as she can put together a good kayaking performance and then outride the chasing monster on the final time trial.
But the distance is too much for Elina's slight frame; she won't have the power needed to win, especially if conditions are tough. That is why I think Elina will be a bridesmaid again and take second place.
Fleur Pawsey (New Zealand)
Fleur has come of age. She is an all-round, exceptional athlete and the only runner capable of putting a dent into Ussher's mountain run time. Fleur is one of the co-authors of the book on how to run the Mingah-Deception fast. She also has power to burn like a diesel engine which will kick in in the last three hours of the race when it counts.
Like Cashin and Nicolau, Fleur has upgraded to a 6m Sharp and she knows how to paddle it. She has put in the hard yards having survived the extremely rough conditions of the 2011 Tour de Tasman. Since then, Fleur has reported the Sharp feels just as easy as a beginner's boat and laughs at any previous trepidation she may have had in her up-skilling process. Fleur's only weakness is she hasn't raced the Longest Day in two years. But in the meantime she hasn't been picnicking either. She has been racing in extremely tough overseas events while methodically putting in the miles and experience into her bank while balancing invaluable recovery time. All is yet to be revealed. Considering Fleur's impressive asset portfolio, her skills and motivations to race, she has the complete package. And that is why my pick for the 2012 Speight's Coast to Coast is Fleur Pawsey, clocking up her second Longest Day victory.
Camila Nicolau (Brazil)
Camila gets the coveted title of the dangerous dark horse. Her training is going extremely well, especially her paddling game. She has always paddled a Sharp (5.5m), but this year she's stepped it up to the faster 6m model. In the Classic River Race, she showed she could hang with the top girls but didn't have the steam to go the full distance with them to the end. However, I know the race was simply a training day for Camila, just like Pawsey. Her running and cycling disciplines are strong but for Camila to be a threat she needs to be significantly faster over the mountain run, and step up her cycling so she's in contact going into the Deception. If she stays in touch, then it's anyone's race. Camila is young and hungry and she's in that steep learning curve phase of her racing career.
Sia Svendsen (Denmark)
Sia has been a workhorse all season through her mountain-running guide work, building up incredible strength endurance over the Mingah-Deception, and learning all the secret shortcuts. She has been cycling very well over the past few years with racing on the elite circuit. Sia's kayaking has been her Achilles heel. A strong first-half of the race will make for real excitement, but I think she will fade on the kayak and then fall off the pace for a top-three podium contention. But as a top-five contender, my money is on Sia.
