Paul Lewis: What Ian Foster’s future really looks like

All Blacks head coach Ian Foster may have even more stress piled on his shoulders in the lead-up to the World Cup. Photo / Photosport

OPINION:

If NZ Rugby does create a slice of history by making Ian Foster the first All Blacks coach to be discarded in World Cup year (as opposed to after), watch the sympathy meter swing significantly in his direction.

For all Scott Robertson’s puzzling – but outwardly jubilant – demeanour when he dropped what seemed like a big hint this week, we still don’t know what’s coming; it may be nothing like what Robertson seemed to be suggesting. Misdirecting the media? That never happens, does it?

If that change is coming, Foster will be in an unenviable position. For all the opprobrium sent in his direction – some of it from keyboards like this one – Foster is a decent man who may have to suffer taking his team to the World Cup knowing his job will not be there when he gets back, even if he wins the thing.

Some quarters of this debate have been quick to invoke corporate comparisons. You know, the CEO of a company would not be retained if his record was like Foster’s blah-blah-blah.

If you resign your post, working out your notice can be wearying but your reputation is generally intact. Being dumped can be a blow to self-respect and reputation. The phrase “dead man walking” comes to mind; anyone who thinks that’s an easy path has never set foot on it.

If this comes to pass, Foster will have to endure repeated questions about his job all through his World Cup. Press conferences are horrible things (for both sides) but few journalists will miss the opportunity to ask coach and/or players about this sea change and the effect on their bid for the Cup. Foster and co may be more irritated than Wayne Brown being asked about communication.

Some time back, I headed up a small-to-medium company operating across Asia-Pacific. We’d had a bumper year; the owner decided to sell. However, the firm to whom we sold quickly became the subject of a hostile takeover by one of the biggest marketing services companies in the world.

Ian Foster during an All Blacks training session. Photo / Getty

These guys didn’t give a monkey’s about our company. All they were doing was getting rid of the competition. They stripped out the management, including me, folding the staff and our services under one of their existing brands.

At the time, we were proposing to open an office in Shanghai, then going through a boom. I was asked to give the takeover management, specially flown out from London, a presentation on why we wanted a Shanghai office and how we’d do it. I was being ditched regardless; dead man walking. It was the last thing in the world I wanted to do. But there wasn’t just me to think about; there was our staff.

A few minutes into the presentation, I could detect the indifference of the new owners. I had a sudden and strong urge to stop and say: “You know what? Stick this…” and depart. I didn’t do it; often wished I had.

That is the kind of netherworld into which Ian Foster will step if this coaching change occurs in this fashion. Knowing your job isn’t there any more, and that your employer thinks someone else can do it better, is no ego trip. I for one hope Foster secures a job he enjoys and which maybe will not have the pressure of this one. Maybe NZR might even create a “director of rugby” position for him.

Before that, however, he has a tough selection task. His priority would remain winning the Cup. But, if he was continuing his job after this tournament, he would have half an eye on the future – as this All Black team will be missing serious horsepower and experience once the 33-strong squad has done its thing in France.

Take lock, for example. Brodie Retallick has already said he will retire. Sam Whitelock will turn 35 during the Cup; it’s hard to imagine even the indestructible Whitelock at another one. Scott Barrett will turn 30 this year. Newer locks, Tupou Va’ai and Josh Lord, have had little game time at the top.

All Blacks head coach Ian Foster and NZ Rugby CEO Mark Robinson as the press conference to announce Foster's retention. Photo / Photosport

Raising squad numbers to 33 (from 31) means a position like lock, which needs future proofing, might get an extra person this time round. Previous recent All Black squads have only taken four locks (three in 2015).

So Foster has decisions to make – does he take only four locks, adding the more experienced Patrick Tuipulotu (also 30) to the squad instead of a younger model or does he forget his own situation and plan for the future? Will he leave the future engine room for the next engineer to figure out?

That might give him more room to add players to other positions where there are question marks – like halfback, prop, loose forward or the outside backs. Foster might feel this is his gig, his last shot, and the future can look after itself; he may feel like giving his employers the hand gesture which means the opposite to “come here”.

If he opts to look after No. 1, who could blame him?