KEY POINTS:
Tom Ashley is on course for a medal but New Zealand's other chances in the Olympic yachting regatta at Qingdao might be slipping away with the venue's fickle breezes.
All week New Zealand have had high hopes of three medal chances, maybe even four - but a disappointing
day yesterday saw all but Ashley fade away from the medals. Even Ashley had his worst result of the regatta (eighth) but still leads overall.
"Tom is very much in form but I am not sure what happened in his last race," said team manager Russell Green yesterday. "The wind has been dropping all day and that's created some funny pressures and there's strange things going on out there.
"But Tom is a cool customer and, with him, I think it is just a matter of what colour [medal] now."
With one race remaining, Ashley leads Britain's Nick Dempsey with 38 points to the Briton's 41, with Julien Bontemps (France) third with 42. Early leader Shahar Zubari (Israel) had fallen away but recovered to win a race yesterday in lighter airs (10-13 knots) that were much more to his liking than the big blow of Sunday. He is fifth on 51 points and not out of it yet.
Ashley will have to cover both Dempsey and Bontemps in the last race and in the medal race, when all points are doubled.
Hamish Pepper and Carl Williams won their first race of three yesterday, came 12th in the next, and in the seventh race managed an 11th, leaving them seventh overall - although they still have three races to go and are only a few points off the medal positions and can threaten seriously with some good final races.
But both Barbara Kendall, in the women's boardsailing, and Jo Aleh in the Laser Radial stumbled yesterday. Aleh, who led the fleet at one stage, had her third 14th finish in a row before finishing 20th in her final race and is down to seventh overall. She is in today's medal race but is 28 points off a podium place - a lot of ground to make up, even with double points.
Kendall's fighting spirit is well known and she had a 6th and a 13th in her two races yesterday, dropping to seventh overall. She is 13 points off the medals and would like a good showing in her last race today.
However Laser sailor Andrew Murdoch gave himself hope, continuing his comeback with a fifth in his seventh and eighth races before winning the ninth and last race, dragging himself into sixth overall. He is now 14 points off a bronze and 17 points off a silver - not impossible but it will still be a magical redemption if he can close in on a medal in today's final race.
Britain's Paul Goodison seems set for gold but Murdoch may feel the double-points medals race could give him an outside chance at catching second-placed Swede Rasmus Myrgen, with whom he had a thrilling battle in the last race, and third-placed Gustavo Lima (Portugal).
The boardsailors had one race to run but the failing wind will dictate the event's timing.