Tokyo Olympics 2020: Michael Burgess - Why the Football Ferns desperately need overhaul for 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup

OPINION:

In less than two years, the 2023 Women's World Cup will kick off at Eden Park, with the Football Ferns in action in the opening game.

That's exciting, but also a little scary, on the evidence of New Zealand's disappointing Olympics campaign.

The World Cup will be massive. It's the biggest global team event for women by miles, and will showcase the sport in an unprecedented way.

It's the best chance the Ferns will ever have of an historic World Cup run, with games in front of massive home crowds.

But how competitive will they be?

They've struggled in their last two pinnacle events and seem to be on a downward curve.

After losing all three games at the 2019 World Cup (though they were extremely close to a draw against the Netherlands) there were another three defeats in Japan, conceding 10 goals.

But it wasn't so much the results, as there were few expectations against the United States and Sweden especially, but the manner of the performances.

The Olympics are a time for athletes to rise to the occasion, to give the best performances of their lives, like Hayden Wilde or Erica Fairweather. For the Ferns, very few did. Instead most were a shade – or more – below their potential.

The Ferns were unfortunate to be placed in the 'group of death', one of the toughest pools any Kiwi team has ever faced.

They also desperately missed defender Rebekah Stott, New Zealand's player of the year in 2020, who has been battling blood cancer over the last year.

And they were hamstrung by being unable to play any build-up matches, unlike most of their rivals, with their last game in March 2020.

But they can call on huge experience, so combinations shouldn't have been a problem.

Five players had in excess of 120 caps, while Hannah Wilkinson became the latest Ferns centurion in Japan. Three other players have topped 70 matches.

They enjoyed the 2019 World Cup together, and the unprecedented build-up before that tournament and many have been regulars for a decade.

But something is not working, because the team can't find their best – individually and collectively – when it really matters.

It feels like this generation peaked at the 2015 World Cup in Canada – where they were unfortunate not to progress out of the group – and haven't scaled those heights since.

Instead, they have lost ground, while the rest of the world advances.

With Tom Sermanni stepping down, the new Ferns coach will have some big decisions, but it is surely time for new blood.

The youngsters in Japan (Daisy Cleverley, Paige Satchell, Gabi Rennie, Emma Rolston, Anna Leat) all showed their promise and deserve more opportunities.

But there may be some tough conversations with the old guard. Captain Ali Riley has been a great servant but had a mixed tournament and will be 34 in October.

Abby Erceg (31) remains a class above, but the likes of Anna Green (30), Ria Percival (31), Erin Nayler (29) and Betsy Hassett (30) might be looking over their shoulders.

They will want to be involved in 2023, especially as a career swansong, but the next Ferns coach needs to make selections solely on merit and form rather than reputation, because there is too much at stake.

This Ferns cohort has under-performed at several pinnacle events, so it's time to give some of the next generation a decent chance to establish themselves.

The new Ferns coach needs to build a winning mentality and culture, otherwise our home World Cup could be an anti-climax.

Time is ticking.