Tokyo Olympics 2020: Eddie Dawkins column - The massive shift facing NZ's Olympic track cycling team

OPINION:

When New Zealand's cyclists take to the track in Tokyo, we can expect plenty of promise and surprise.

There are genuine medal contenders in the men's and women's pursuit teams; two quartets who should be contending for a medal every day of the week. Over the last couple of years, they've either been at the top of the world or they've been knocking on the door.

They're both doing fantastic times in training and in simulation days, and I assume they've just gone from strength to strength. They work really well together; they have a good coaching staff around them and a bit of new kit as well. It's always nice having shiny new things, so hopefully, that spurs them on. If it all comes together, they'll be two hard teams to beat.

There's a lot of promise in the endurance teams and in a couple of the individuals within the endurance teams, and someone like Ellesse Andrews in the individual sprint shapes up as a real wild card.

Ellesse Andrews could surprise in the individual sprint. Photo / Getty Images

But while there is a lot to like in the New Zealand group, it would be a surprise to see the men's sprint team on the podium this time around. We won the silver medal in Rio de Janeiro five years ago, but a lot has changed since then.

Heading into the Tokyo Games, Ethan Mitchell and Sam Webster, who I rode with in 2016 and have long-established roles in the team for the event, have had to take on different roles to accommodate the addition of young Sam Dakin.

Dakin has stepped up to fill that spot but has probably a couple more years of growing and time under his belt before he becomes that rider. I think for him it will just be an opportunity to experience the Olympics as this massive show which it is and hopefully build on that to Paris in 2024.

Looking at it from a purely performance point of view, Ethan, who has typically been on the front and has been on the front since 2009 – he's never gone anywhere other than the front – is now having to ride second. It's a massive shift physically and technically.

He's the fastest guy in the world over that first lap, so to not be able to do that and to move into a different position, I assume is pretty tough. And with Sam going from second position back into third, where I was, is a whole different way of training.

It's not anything similar to what he was doing so it would've been a tough shift. But from the numbers I've heard them doing, they're both going really well so it all comes down to how the team works together.

Eddie Dawkins, Ethan Mitchell and Sam Webster celebrate their medal in the men's team sprint at the Commonwealth Games in 2018. Photo / Getty Images

I think the individual splits from Sam and Ethan will surprise a lot of people. I just think they're too far back in the first lap to make a charge for the top four. That's not to say they can't get there, but it would be a surprise.

There is, however, plenty to like in this group of talented cyclists.

There are a couple of outliers in terms of the Madison pairing - which will probably be Aaron Gate and Corbin Strong - then the individual and the Omnium. New Zealand has been dominant when it comes to the individual events, and the women's Madison as well – they've picked up a couple of World Cup wins in recent years, so they're in the hunt for that as well.

Having seen the work they have put in over the past few years, I'm just looking forward to seeing the guys and girls racing again. They haven't raced in a long time.

They race against themselves or they go over to Australia and race against Australia, it's just not the same.

I think it will just be exciting to see some track cycling on TV; I haven't seen it in a while now, so it'll be good to see that and how they go, and cheer them on from my couch for the first time.