Sports funding agency Sparc yesterday declared that New Zealand's athletes were on target to deliver the requisite 10 medals in London - although there were some reservations.
At a media briefing to analyse the year in sport, Sparc high performance manager Marty Toomey said 2009 "had been a pretty good year, but we cannot be complacent".
The reasons for cheer are the fact that New Zealand achieved 10 medals in pinnacle events for Olympic disciplines, the highest total since 1992.
They have six world champions and four new world champions.
Those numbers have been achieved despite a number of quality athletes either taking a year out of competition, or suffering significant injuries, this year, including Tom Ashley, Andrew Murdoch, Barbara Kendall, Ben Fouhy, Nathan Twaddle, Nick Willis and Rob Waddell.
Balancing that is the number of athletes achieving top eight results has dropped from 27 in 2008 to 24 and just four sports have contributed to the medal tally.
Add to that the fact it is not just New Zealanders taking "gap years", many of the world's elite athletes take a back seat in the first year of an Olympic cycle, and that is why Sparc has described 2010 as a "critical" year for assessing their chances in London.
Of most concern to Sparc will be that rowing, cycling, athletics and sailing delivered medals only in pinnacle events this year. Of the six Olympic sports that receive targeted funding, triathlon and swimming failed to deliver medals while no non-targeted Olympic sports reached the podium either.
The worry beads will not get a work-out with triathlon, in part because there are only six medals on offer each year, making it one of the toughest sports in the programme to succeed in, but there must be continued frustration at the inability of swimming to deliver top-eight, let alone medal-winning performances on the biggest stage.
"There's still a high reliance on rowing," Toomey said, acknowledging that more than a quarter of New Zealand's top-eight performances were delivered by the oarsmen and women.
"Cycling has been strong and yachting has had a pretty good year. The system needs triathlon, swimming, kayaking and equestrian to be in the mix too."
Toomey said that statistical modelling put together by the Government agency tended to suggest that New Zealand's 24 top-eight performances this year would not be enough to get the 10 medals they have asked for in London.
That would be a conversion rate of 42 per cent, whereas traditionally New Zealand has converted just 32 per cent of its top-eight results to medals.
"If we convert at traditional levels, we need 30 top eights by 2012," Toomey said.
Of more immediate concern to the New Zealand Olympic Committee, also represented at the briefing, was the Commonwealth Games in Delhi.
NZOC president Mike Stanley believes India's capital will be ready in time, though not before a significant amount of elbow grease was applied.
Stanley visited in October and said there were a number of stadia and facilities either good to go or well advanced, while others are going to require around-the-clock attention to get them operational on deadline.
2009 MEDALLISTS IN OLYMPIC DISCIPLINES
(* denotes world champion)
* Valerie Vili: shot put
* Sarah Walker: BMX
* Mahe Drysdale: single scull
* Storm Uru/ Peter Taylor: lightweight double
* Hamish Bond/Eric Murray: pair
* Alison Shanks: pursuit
Michael Bullot: Laser
Hamish Pepper/ Craig Monk: Star
Men's cycling: team pursuit
Emma-Jane Feathery/ Rebecca Scown: pair
Sparc declares NZ athletes on target for 10 medals
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