The old rule of thumb that world championship form a year out from an Olympic Games is a solid indicator of medal prospects needs reassessment according to Sport New Zealand boss Peter Miskimmin.
Speaking on the day New Zealand's rowers finished their Rio campaign with two gold medals and one bronze, two fewer than their overall return from London in 2012, and questions being asked about their performance against the pile of funding - a whopping $32.069 million over the four-year Olympic cycle - provided by the taxpayer, Miskimmin reinforced the view that winning Olympic medals is a tough business.
Their target has been 14 medals, one more than in London. There have been close calls in rowing and cycling in particular, and Miskimmin said it's no longer safe to say there cannot be significant changes in the pecking order in those final 12 months of the cycle.
"In previous years the results leading into the Games have been a pretty good indicator. I don't think we can say that any more," he said on Veitch on Sport.
"There was a lot of speculation (where) some media had us getting 20-plus (medals). We always knew this environment is red hot.