One year to Rio: New Zealand's Olympic landscape

With one year until the Rio Olympics, David Leggat looks at each sport and how New Zealand is placed.

ONE YEAR TO RIO

Day 1:

Spotlight on the athletes

Day 2:

New Zealand's Olympic landscape - How the country is looking in each sport

Day 3:

Are we going to have a rowing eight once again?

Day 4:

The cost of a medal

Day 5:

Is Rio ready?

The important date for swimmers striving for Rio is March 28 when the New Zealand Open begins in Auckland.

Swimming's rule is match the Fina A standard qualifying time and you qualify. The sport has long had the policy that swimmers must achieve the standard on a prescribed date, thus matching what will happen at the Olympics.

The date was brought forward by several weeks last month, which complicated matters for swimmers based at American colleges.

The NCAA championships are on March 24-26 for men, March 17-19 for women, making it a squeeze for those swimmers affected.

One option is swimmers applying to take advantage of Swimming New Zealand's 'extenuating circumstances' clause so, for example, if they swam below par at the Open selectors can use discretionary powers to revisit those swimmers performances.

SNZ have looked at placing certain events at the end of the Open week to help those coming in from the US or enabling swimmers to qualify at other Fina-approved meets.
SNZ are hoping to field about eight to 10 swimmers in Rio.

Synchronised swimming missed out on qualifying and the national water polo teams have a slim chance through the Oceania route but would need New Zealand Olympic Committee approval.

The rules have changed for athletic qualification for Rio. Where in past Games, each national association would set qualifying standards, this time the International Amateur Athletic Federation has laid down the markers. Get inside that time or distance and an athlete is eligible for nomination to - in this case - the NZOC, who make final selection determinations.

Athletics New Zealand have also pencilled in their qualifying expectations, which are not far off the IAAF numbers, other than the women's marathon, where ANZ have put a qualifying performance about 13 minutes faster than a flabby IAAF time.

There are no specified events at which athletes must produce a qualifying mark. The qualifying period for the walks, relays, marathons, 10,000m heptathlon and decathlons began on January 1; all other disciplines started on May 1, and run until July 11 next year, about three weeks before the Olympics begin.

Several New Zealanders have already put up qualifying performances, including shot putters Valerie Adams and Tom Walsh, 800m runner Angie Petty, Nikki Hamblin in the 1500 and 5000m; Nick Willis in the 1500m, Zane Robertson in the 10,000m, race walker Quentin Rew in both the 20 and 50km and marathoner Mary Davies.

ANZ require athletes to prove their fitness in the leadup to the Olympics. That is, just because a qualifying performance is posted eight months out from Rio, athletes need to show their fitness closer to the start time.

There is an expectation of athletes having the capability of a top 16 finish with the potential to make the top eight.

A tough assignment for both the Talls, Blacks and Ferns. They play Australia in the Oceania qualifying series in August in two-game, home and away series. Both teams face the Aussies in a double header in Melbourne on August 15. The second leg for the women is in Tauranga on August 17, for the men it's Wellington one day later. Win that series and it's go directly to Rio.

The losing team will go to a repechage tournament, the women from June 13-19, the men from July 4-11 next year, the venues to be confirmed.

There, the women have an easier route from that point. The top five countries at that tournament will progress; for the men, they must finish in the top three.

The Tall Blacks have been in Europe and are involved in the Stankovic Cup against China, Mexico and Venezuela this week.

The Tall Ferns, just back from Taiwan where they had four losses and a win, have matches against Japan in Christchurch on this week as their leadup to the Oceania series.

Officials are hopeful of getting representation in Rio, but it'll be a tough road.

An elite men's team of eight are contesting the Oceania championships in Canberra starting on August 26. Making the final there allows entry to the world championships in Doha from October 5-18.

There, at the lower weight divisions, finish in the top two or three, depending on the class, and Rio beckons. At the heavier classes, 91kg and 91kg+, only the winner can progress.

In the case of the Oceania region, boxers who are unsuccessful at the worlds, then look to qualify through the Asian Continental Championships next April, at which the top three qualify.

The Oceania team includes three members of last year's Commonwealth Games representatives, gold medallist David Nyika of Hamilton, Chad Milnes and Patrick Mailata, both from North Harbour.

There's more to this sport than Lisa Carrington. That said, the 2012 Olympic K1 200m champion, and multiple world best over the 200 and 500m disciplines since London is a gilt-edged gold medal contender.

New Zealand are expecting to field a fast-rising women's K4 of Jaimee Lovett, Caitlyn Ryan, Aimee Fisher and Kayla Imrie - who won a World Cup 500m title in Portugal in May - Marty McDowell in the K1 1000, Scott Bicknell in the K1 200m sprint with question marks over a men's and women's K2 crew.

Qualifying is in two stages. The first is at the world championships in Milan late this month. The single seaters must make the top eight to advance directly to Rio; the multi-seaters vary between top 10 or top six depending on the discipline.

The second option is through the Oceania channel in Adelaide early next year. That's tough as the paddler must win the title. If Australia has already qualified a seat this year, ordinarily that would help New Zealand's prospects, but there's a catch. Events must have at least three crews trying to qualify. In the case of the K2 men, for example, the problem might be getting that many Pacific nations to the start line.

New Zealand are off for a three-week training camp in Slovenia before the worlds.

A hellishly complicated qualifying process across the disciplines.

Take the track. The total team is limited to 15 riders, eight men and seven women. Olympic spots are awarded to the country, not the individual and based on UCI Olympic track rankings.

That is determined by results at qualifying events, which include the last two world cups, continental championships and world championships, with the period ending at next year's worlds in London in March. Quota spots are released on March 14 for the five track events - team pursuit, sprint, individual sprint, keirin and omnium.

On the road, UCI points are gained over the qualifying period which ends on December 31. Based on current rankings, and assuming Australia remain among the qualifiers from the world tour, New Zealand would qualify two men via the Oceania route. The women would get two riders in their road race; while the time trial has one spot per nation out of Oceania while one rider form the top 15 women's nations, along with the top 10 finishers at htis year's worlds, qualify for the women's time trial.

In BMX, points are accrued over the major events up until May 30 with 31 qualification places on offer for the men, plus the host nation, and 15 for the women.

And in mountain biking, points are gained up until May 25. In terms of men's qualification, New Zealand are right on the cusp, but well outside the women's criteria. However New Zealand could get in by an individual ranking system.

Strange as it sounds, but New Zealand have yet to qualify for the eventing competition, in which they have a proud Olympic history, most recently winning the team bronze in London three years ago.

New Zealand's next chance comes at the Boekelo trial in the Netherlands in October. New Zealand are grouped in International Equestrian Federation's group G, which covers South East Asia and Oceania. Australia have already qualified for Rio. That leaves Japan as New Zealand's closest rivals, although they have no riders ranked in the world's top 200. New Zealand have several in the top 20.

Win the teams event in Boekelo and New Zealand are off to Samba land.

If they don't, there's an alternative, late route next year, but there's an important reason why New Zealand will be keen to knock the qualifying off at Boekelo. It will allow them to take a reserve along with the four team members, which doesn't apply to those arriving late at the Rio party.

The big sensation of the (New Zealand) Olympic buildup year was the disqualification of the OlyWhites for fielding an ineligible player at the Oceania tournament in Papua New Guinea. Deklan Wynne failed to meet the criteria as laid down by world governing body Fifa and New Zealand were pushed out on the eve of the final against Fiji, where victory would have ensured a trip to Rio.

The Football Ferns will play home and away fixtures in October against the best Pacific nation. If they don't win that, given their world No 17 ranking, there'll be hard questions asked.

A leadup programme towards Rio is still to be finalised for the women.

It's back in the Olympics for the first time since 1904, when it was a two-way shootout between the United States and Canada in St Louis, Missouri. Now it's in for Rio and Tokyo in 2020.

The format is two fields of 60 players for 72-holes of individual strokeplay. Playoffs will be used in the event of ties for the medal positions.

The top 15 players on world rankings on July 11 next year qualify automatically with a limit of four for any one country. After that, countries can have a maximum of two players from any country which does not already had two or more players in the top 15.

All that means is that plenty of the world's finest players won't make the cut.

The tournament will be played at the Reserva de Marapendi in Barra da Tijuca, about 5km from the athletes' village.

If the Games were on this week, New Zealand would be represented by Danny Lee (ranked No 27 in the Games field), Ryan Fox (No 39) and Lydia Ko (No 2).

No rhythmic representation however New Zealand have a highly promising trampolinist, Dylan Schmidt, who placed 15th at last year's senior world championships in Daytona Beach.

Schmidt needs to produce consistent results at three selected events, including two World Cups in Spain in September and Portugal a month later, then at the world championships in Denmark in November.

He needs to build a case that he's capable of a top 16 finish with the potential to make the top eight in Rio. His prospects of qualifying at this point appear bright.

New Zealand might get a couple of artistic gymnasts to Rio, but the qualfication process is hard, and complicated.

Last year's Commonwealth Games bronze medallist on the floor David Bishop is a chance, as is Misha Koudinov, most likely for individual apparatus qualification.

Several girls are on the long list, but Courtney McGregor and Charlotte Sullivan appear the most likely to put out a decent bid.

There is a World Cup event in Croatia in September and the world champs in Glasgow a month later, followed by another World Cup in Doha in March and the Olympic test event in Brazil in April.

New Zealand's women are confirmed for Rio, but for the men it's a different story. They slipped up badly at their World League semifinal in Buenos Aires. As a result it's got a lot tougher to make Rio.

New Zealand, ranked seventh, must beat world No 1 Australia in the Oceania qualifying event in Stratford in October. Win and they're in; lose and they're almost certainly out.

After a rousing effort at the Glasgow Commonwealth Games, the sport is optimistic of being on the mat in Rio.

The two most likely chances are partners Jason Koster and Moira de Villiers of Christchurch. Both medalled in Glasgow, with bronze and silver respectively in the under 100kg and under 70kg classes. They each won medals at three World Cup events in South America early this year and are accruing important ranking points.

New Zealand are sending a team of seven to the worlds in Astana, Kazakstan at the end of this month. Auckland's under 52kg fighter Justine Bishop and under 57 Glasgow bronze medallist Darcina Manuel from Perth join de Villiers in the women's section; while Auckland-based Adrian Leet (silver in Glasgow) is in the under 73kg; while Ivica Pavlinic, Sydney-based under 81kg athlete, and Auckland 100kg and over Sam Rosser complete the squad.

The Oceania championships in Wollongong is likely to be a must-win event for all bar Koster and de Villiers, and when the International Junior Federation rankings are released early next May, a placing inside the top 22 (men) or top 14 (women) should guarantee a trip to Rio.

New Zealand are aiming to have a full set of 14 crews in Rio. They want to press on from the small boat success in recent years to having a presence in the eights.

The early signs have been encouraging. RNZ have stellar crews such as single sculler Mahe Drysdale and unbeatable pair Eric Murray and Hamish Bond as their spearhead.

Others, such as world champion lightweight and open women double scullers and men's lightweight four are shaping as formidable crews, while both sets of eights made a hefty statement with podium places at the Lucerne World Cup last month.

Qualifying this year all takes place at the world championships, in Aiguebelette, France, over the first week of September.

There is a final opportunity at the Lucerne World Cup regatta shortly before the Olympics next year, but no team wants to rely on that route.

Both New Zealand teams have qualified through their world circuit performances, and both shape as strong medal chances.

While the women's team looks fairly settled, there is plenty of interest in how coach Gordon Tietjens will work with his current, specialist sevens players who have done him proud down the recent seasons, and those 15-a-side players who fancy a dart at an Olympic medal.

New Zealand qualified a boat in all 10 Olympic classes at last year's worlds in Santander, Spain. What remains to be resolved is who will sit in them in Rio.

Yachting New Zealand have a range of events coming up in the next few months from which results will go into the blender.

Only three countries, Britain and France being the others, qualified a boat across the complete Olympic spectrum. With three current world champion crews - Peter Burling and Blair Tuke, Jo Aleh and Polly Powrie, and Alex Moloney and Molly Meech - and a clutch of other strong-performing sailors, New Zealand are trending towards a strong showing in Rio.

We're into the world of quotas. New Zealand need them to secure bodies on the ground in Rio and haven't got any yet.

The big test will be the Oceania championships in Sydney in December. Even then, the shooter who secures a nomination won't necessarily be the athlete to get the trip to Rio.

Trap shooter Natalie Rooney and rifleman Ryan Taylor have fulfilled qualification criteria to receive a nomination, but without quota spots they can't go. The expectation is that New Zealand will have possibly four shooters in Rio once the dust has settled.

New Zealand had three athletes at the London Games, Vaughn Scott, Robyn Wong and Logan Campbell. Scott is still in the mix. There is optimism that New Zealand will again field representatives in Rio.

The qualifying process is under way. New Zealand competed at the Pacific Games in July and officials are in the process of identifying key tournaments on the world grand prix circuit at which valuable ranking points will be on offer in Europe, Asia and Pan America.
The idea is secure as many points as possible to present a compelling case to the NZOC, who want to see evidence of capability of making the top eight from nominees.

Performances at the recent world championships in Russia are included and the final cutoff will roughly be worked around the Oceania Olympic qualifier in Papua New Guinea next March.

Marina Erakovic is, once more, the only singles contender.

At present, her ranking, which has been as high as 39, is 84.

On June 30 next year, the International Tennis Federation will issue a list of players who are eligible for direct entry, once various criteria have been worked through, notably a maximum of four players from any country.

However New Zealand Tennis have found the NZOC a tough nut to crack. Erakovic has competed at the last two Olympics, but only after a scrap with the NZOC, whose criteria in several sports is tougher than the IOC standard. Erakovic needs to get her ranking as high as possible before the end of next June to help her case.

New Zealand could field a men's doubles team if they can perm the best two from Michael Venus (currently ranked No 45), Artem Sitak (No 46) and Marcus Daniell (No 69). Venus is the best individual player, Sitak and Daniell have paired up before.

New Zealand are holding three women's and two men's quota spots for Rio. At the last two Olympics they have been one of the few countries to have a full hand in both events, an honour open only to eight countries per race.

However Triathlon New Zealand have a philosophy that big is not necessarily best.
For example, Switzerland and Sweden had just one entry each in the women's race in London. Those athletes won the gold and silver medals respectively.

Ink in world No 3 Andrea Hewitt, and almost certainly No 14 Tony Dodds and No 39 Ryan Sissons, barring injury or significant loss of form, for Rio, where the run leg along Copacabana beach many be many things but hilly it ain't.

Both Nicki Samuels and Kate McIlroy are recovering from injury layoffs. On the international rankings, Samuels sits 14th, McIlroy a misleading 90th. Both are aiming to be back in action soon.

New Zealand are targeting a medal and top eight finishes. They are due to make nominations to the NZOC around mid-April next year.

Indoor no; beach a chance. The only New Zealand combination with a sniff are Tauranga duo Sam O'Dea and Mike Wilson. They have to attend a series of competitions around the globe in the coming months and rack up the wins, and the ranking points.

They won the Oceania title late last year, but that doesn't count towards Rio. They finished third in their pool at the recent world champs in the Netherlands.

The Olympic event has 24 teams in men's and women's competition.

Another sport with a challenging assignment.

The simple part is this: New Zealand teams of six men and four women will attend the Oceania championships in Fiji in May. The teams must finish in the top five (men) and four (women) in order to secure a spot for one lifter in Rio.

Assuming that is accomplished, Olympic Weightlifting New Zealand have a ranking list from which they nominate their best male and female lifter to the NZOC selectors.

Even then, it's far from cut and dried. For example, if the top ranking lifter happens to compete in a demanding weight category, his, or her, chances of producing a top 16 performance, with potential to make the top eight, may be less than a lower ranked lifter who is in a less brutal division.

The top ranked pair at this early juncture in the process are Ianne Guinares in the under 62kg class and Tracey Lambrechs (75kg+).

Expect London Olympian and Glasgow Commonwealth gold medallist Richie Paterson and Lambrechs, who had surgery after Glasgow, to put out strong bids for the sole spots in the coming months.

The nationals are in Wellington in October, while Lambrechs and Guinares are off to the world champs in Houston in November.

It's 15 years since New Zealand had a wrestler at the Olympics, when Martin Liddle stepped onto the mat in Sydney in the 54kg division. There are hopes that there will again be a representation in Rio.

First target will be the Oceania championships in Hamilton next March, leading onto the Oceania-Africa trial in Algeria in April. The top two wrestlers in each event are eligible to go, subject to NZOC approval.

Tayla Ford, a bronze medallist in the 58kg division in the Glasgow Commonwealth Games last year, has moved from Rangiora to Mt Maunganui to develop her game, while Sam Belkin, in the 97kg class, is training in Russia.

Both are on an initial long list of 12 names. Ford is expecting to try her luck at the world champs in Las Vegas in September.

Ford's success has drawn more young women to the sport and there is a belief a good number could be ready for international competition by the time of the next Commonwealth Games on the Gold Coast in 2018.

Not going:
Archery, Badminton, Fencing, Modern Pentathlon, Handball, Table tennis

ONE YEAR TO RIO
Yesterday: Spotlight on the athletes
Today: New Zealand's Olympic landscape - How the country is looking in each sport
Friday: Are we going to have a rowing eight once again?
Saturday: The cost of a medal
Sunday: Is Rio ready?