By comparison, Infostrada Sports, a company which monitors results in Olympic sports, suggests this estimate is below New Zealand's capability.
They forecast New Zealand to haul in 22 medals (eight gold, six silver, eight bronze), hence trouncing their previous best of 13 medals at Seoul (three gold, two silver, eight bronze) and London (six gold, two silver, five bronze).
Rowing and cycling each receive an additional $100,000 next year, giving them respective $5.3 million and $4.7 million budgets.
Athletics and canoeing gain an extra $75,000 each, while paralympic sports get $55,000 more to develop their gold medal prospects.
Freestyle wrestler Tayla Ford ($15,000) and trap shooter Natalie Rooney ($20,000) receive backing for the first time. Ford won bronze at the Glasgow Commonwealth Games; Rooney earned a Rio quota spot at the Oceania Championships.
Men's hockey dropped $50,000 to $700,000 after missing direct Rio qualification on a number of occasions, women's football decreased $150,000 to $800,000 after failing to get out of the World Cup group stages and swimming dropped from $1.4 million to $1.3 million for failing to meet agreed performance goals.
"We had a six-monthly performance review with them because we didn't feel confident the programme was progressing at that point [June 30]. Subsequently they've made good progress and Lauren [Boyle] is a potential medallist."
Canoe slalom racers Mike Dawson and Luuka Jones drop $30,000 to $175,000 but are still deemed an outside chance of success with one boat per nation on the Olympic programme. Boxer David Nyika dropped $15,000 to $65,000 because he is unproven at the new Olympic weight division.
"There are not many surprises," Baumann said of their overall decisions. "The K4 women's kayakers [who qualified New Zealand in the discipline at a Games for the first time] get money to attend an additional World Cup, and we will fund an extra overseas training block for Lisa [Carrington].
"We're also supporting the golf team 50:50 with Golf New Zealand [HPSNZ will invest $25,000] because it is their first time at a Games with three potential athletes."
Elsewhere, the set-up budget for the Games sits at $1.55 million.
"It doesn't make sense to spend everything on the daily training environments but not have a smooth, seamless transition into a Games environment," Baumann said. "It'll ensure athletes have everything they need."
Those funds include $450,000 for the New Zealand Olympic Committee, a $250,000 NZOC Games delivery baseline, $350,000 described as a Rio "one-off" fund, $200,000 for the Paralympics Games delivery and a $300,000 Rio Black Gold Underwrite fund.