Olympics: Five golds for NZ - according to the pundits

Professional analysts and amateur tipsters have started coming out with their picks. Photo / Getty Images

There's nothing quite as predictable as medal predictions. So prevalent have they become that there is a chance the discipline will be added to the International Olympic Committee's sporting programme in time for 2020.

Using the sort of forensic analysis usually reserved for human genome therapy, Sports Illustrated this week added its considerable clout to the mix and, rejoice, it's picked New Zealand to take home 16 medals, five of them gold.

Three rowing crews - the men's pair, double and lightweight double - are all expected to stand on the highest step, as are shot-putter Valerie Adams and BMX racer Sarah Walker.

The American magazine is a giant in the field, a publication that still treasures the concepts of research, fact checking and knock-em-cold writing. For more than 50 years, it has marked its writers as a trusted source of information.

So if they say it, it must be true. Right? Well, not quite. What they've spent on fact checking, they might have saved on reality checking.

Sixteen would be New Zealand's biggest haul at an Olympics, beating by three the efforts from Seoul, Korea. It would be a stunning haul.

It would also surge past Sport NZ's cagey forecast of "10 or more" medals and the Associated Press' pick of 14.

The Wall Street Journal, another journalistic pillar, has also picked New Zealand to win five golds, but 13 in total.

It stated its "projections are a product of the probabilities of success based on recent performance, interviews with experts and other factors".

It's the "other factors" that probably tell you the most about the pitfalls of trying to predict human performance under pressure.

Sports Illustrated is not the top end, however. USA Today, with the help of Infostrada, has picked New Zealand to win 17 medals, including five golds.

Professional analysts and amateur tipsters have become emboldened in recent Games by the fact that in modern sport there is little room for the bolters, the fairytale finishes. They do happen, but rarely these days.

Look back to world championship, world cup and other "pinnacle" events and you tend to find your Olympic medallists consistently hovering around the top three.

Goldman Sachs has looked deeper, though, much deeper. Its analysts have used models based on previous Olympic performance and economic factors for their predictions.

New Zealand does not fare so well here, coming in with three golds and 11 medals in total. It's the economy, stupid.

Even Goldman's tally seems absurdly generous compared with analysis by the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College, US.

It's handed New Zealand just seven medals, a tally that mirrors the number handed out by PricewaterhouseCoopers' own report. No more than three of those seven will be gold.

Don't write off Tuck's analysis too quickly - it has won a reputation for being the most accurate tipster.

Here's another thought: you could just sit back, relax and enjoy the spectacle.