Olympics: Experts predict five golds for Kiwis

By DAVID LEGGAT

ATHENS - New Zealand to win five gold medals?

Sounds a shade optimistic? Not in the eyes of celebrated American magazine Sports Illustrated.

Every four years it rolls out a list of predictions for the medal-winners in each of the 301 events.

This time, it reckons five gold and one bronze medal will be New Zealand's lot.

Three of the five are good bets, one relies on an element of luck, and the fifth is an eyebrow-raiser.

The magazine plumps for world-champion Hamilton twins, Caroline and Georgina Evers-Swindell, to win their double scull; Sarah Ulmer, world record-holder and champion, to triumph in the women's 3000m individual pursuit; and world champion Ben Fouhy to dominate his K1 1000m paddling discipline.

So far, no real surprises.

But Sports Illustrated has tipped Bevan Docherty to win the men's triathlon from world No 1 Dmitry Gaag, of Kazakhstan, and Spain's Ivan Rana.

World No 2 Docherty is a good chance, but triathlons include an element of who handles events best on a given day.

The course and the heat will play key parts, and the field contains a cluster of high-calibre performers.

But the magazine's real surprise is in tipping Fouhy and Steven Ferguson to win the K2 1000m gold medal.

The pair have not shone as hoped in the earlier stage of their European campaign, and Ferguson, a swimming Olympian at Sydney four years ago, has picked up a back twinge in the past few days.

Coach Ian Ferguson has long believed Fouhy and his gifted son have the talent to be genuine contenders, but yesterday Ferguson was attempting to arrange a flight for his son to Athens to link with the New Zealand medical team.

"It looks like it's nothing major," Ferguson said. "But you can't be too sure. We would rather he gets looked at."

Since suffering the injury Ferguson has completed longer, slower sessions rather than planned speed sessions.

Fouhy has trained separately for the canoeing regatta, which does not start until the 10th day of competition, on August 23.

The one bronze the magazine expects to finish in New Zealand hands would be won by seasoned boardsailor Barbara Kendall.

If the prediction proves correct, that would give her a remarkable haul of gold, silver, bronze and bronze again from four Games.

Sports Illustrated tipped formidable Italian Alessandra Sensini for the Mistral gold medal.

And as for Michael Phelps, the American swimming hero who has set his sights on seven gold medals, the magazine gives him a thumbs-down.

It picks Phelps to win three gold, one silver and one bronze in his individual events.

Even if he collects three golds in the relays, it will still leave him one shy of the brilliant Mark Spitz, who set the benchmark at the 1972 Games in Munich.

* Blyth Tait, winner of four medals, has chosen former gold medal-winning mount Ready Teddy for the eventing competition.

It marks a third Olympic campaign for Reddy Teddy, 16, an unprecedented achievement in the equestrian world.

Ready Teddy was favoured over Tait's other horse Eze.

At their first Olympics in Atlanta in 1996, the pair won gold in the individual eventing competition.

In Sydney four years ago, Ready Teddy was injured and unable to complete the event.

Andrew Nicholson also had to make a choice between two horses and chose Fenicio. Athens will be Nicholson's fifth Olympics and he is keen to add an individual medal to his collection of team medals.

* Mixed doubles badminton pair Daniel Shirley and Sara Runesten Petersen, the Commonwealth Games bronze medallists, have been drawn to play unseeded Canadians Philippe Bourret and Denyse Julien in the opening round on Saturday.

When they last played the Canadians, in the round of 32 at last year's Taipei Open, the New Zealand combination won 6-15, 15-2, 15-5.