On Thursday night in Paris, on the turf of Stade De France,
href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/olympics/olympics-2024-all-blacks-sevens-campaign-ended-by-south-africa-in-quarter-finals/3JXKOQ2NQZH2HATXBNP3TEYNEQ/">a dream died.
At the same time, it was probably an awakening of our expectations at these Olympics. The premature exit of the men’s rugby sevens team was a jolt, something completely unexpected. They were big podium contenders but were undone by the 12th-ranked South Africans, who had been last to qualify for the tournament.
Sevens is a particularly brutal game, as the clock can be your enemy but this micro moment might also be a macro one. Put simply, we want too much.
NZOC chef de mission Nigel Avery has fielded questions all week about medal prospects, with many asking if the Tokyo tally can be bettered, or at least matched.
It’s a crazy question. Tokyo’s 20 medals will come to be seen as a modern-day miracle, a little like the eight golds of Los Angeles in 1984. As much as we are striving to achieve, there is a natural limit to what a nation of five million people can achieve, even if our per capita investment in high-performance sports is very high by world standards.
Perhaps in time, the numbers achieved in Rio (18 medals) and Tokyo (20) will be recognised as outliers, and we will settle somewhere back in the teens, or early double figures.
Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that we were thrilled with 2004 in Athens (five medals), especially the three golds (Sarah Ulmer, Hamish Carter and the Evers-Swindell twins), a 300 per cent increase on Sydney in 2000.
That overall total lifted to nine in Beijing and we were in raptures, especially with ‘Super Saturday’, which yielded rowing triumphs and athletics gold. From there it got a bit nuts. Six gold medals in London (almost as much as the three previous Games combined), with 13 medals in total and the start of the Lisa Carrington and Hamish Bond/Eric Murray dynasties.
Rio was another step up; Golds to the Kiwi pair, Carrington, Mahe Drysdale and Peter Burling and Blair Tuke, along with a staggering 14 other medals. The post-game gathering of Kiwi medallists almost filled an entire room.
And then came the Tokyo miracle. Kayaking scooping three golds alone, Rowing grabbing gold and silver in the eights, Emma Twigg etc. A total of 20 medals. That put New Zealand 13th overall, only four behind Canada, one-off Brazil and ahead of Spain, Switzerland, Denmark and Turkey.
Given the big European and Asian nations, along with some South American and African heavyweights, that was extraordinary. But there is a limit.
Firstly, the last decade has been blessed by once-in-a-generation performers – Bond and Murray, Val Adams, Drysdale, Burling and Tuke – who are all gone. Following them has been hard.
The last two games also had unique quirks. Rio was a hard place to compete and be based and the European nations in particular, struggled to adapt, whereas Kiwis felt at home, thanks to our prodigious travel and our bonds with the community there.
Tokyo had the Covid spectre. We handled the pandemic better than most, which allowed our athletes to prepare better and once in Japan, the resilient New Zealanders tended to adapt much better to the unusual situation than many other competitors.
Now the Games are back in their natural home, Europe, for the 17th time. Those from the continent are in their happy place, while many other nations – including North America, some big African countries and Asian nations, feel comfortable here.
So what will happen? Rowing is targeting three medals, which is achievable, with the men’s four having the best chance of gold. Bank on kayaking to get a couple – with Dame Lisa Carrington still a slight favourite in the K1 500m ahead of Aimee Fisher and gun Hungarian Tamara Csipes and good chances in the K2 500m and K4 500m, though Carrington’s pet event (K1 200m) is gone.
Track cycling could garner multiple medals while Hayden Wilde’s is a decent contender in the triathlon. The pool, with 26 events, brings hope of a podium finish but no guarantees, given our historic swimming difficulties. It’s a strong athletics team but it still won’t be easy, with Hamish Kerr and Tom Walsh probably the best chances. And golfer Lydia Ko can never be discounted.
So over the next two weeks, focus less on the numbers and more on the quality and be aware that anything exceeding London’s 13 medals would be an impressive effort.
New Zealand Olympic medal tallies this century
Year-Gold-Silver-Bronze-Total
- 2000 Sydney 1-0-3-4
- 2004 Athens 3-2-0-5
- 2008 Beijing 3-2-4-9
- 2012 London 6-2-5-13
- 2016 Rio 4-9-5-18
- 2021 Tokyo 7-6-7-20
*Athens to Beijing was an 80 per cent increase, followed by another 44 per cent leap to London, then a 38 per cent lift to Rio, before an 11 per cent boost to Tokyo.Copy from the second sentence.
