Olympic Games: Our best shots at success

Valerie Adams, will be defending her Olympic title in London next year and shapes as one of the country's best gold medal contenders. Photo / Brett Phibbs

New Zealand athletes are in full Olympic Games qualifying mode for London in 13 months' time. How are they shaping up and where do our best hopes of success lie?

Archery
Quietly optimistic would be the best way to put archery's prospects. The discipline in London will be recurve, as distinct from the compound, which New Zealand contested at last year's Commonwealth Games.

Both fields are of 64 archers. New Zealand have three men in the frame, Auckland's Stephen Florence, Waikato University student Yiftach Swery and national champion, Invercargill's Rob Peterson. No women are in contention.

The top eight teams at the world champs in Turin next month get Games spots, plus eight individuals from other countries. Two men and two women will qualify from the Oceania event in Masterton in January. There's one final chance, an event in Utah around May.

Athletics
The team in Korea for the world champs from August 27-September 3 will make up the bulk of team in London. The Games standards have not yet been set, though they are likely to mirror the IAAF 'A' standards or be slightly tougher.

Take it as read that if fit, Valerie Adams (shot put), Nikki Hamblin (800m and 1500m), Nick Willis (1500m) and marathoner Kimberley Smith will be on the starting line.

Those with an even chance or better of joining them will be Stuart Farquhar (javelin), decathlete Brent Newdick, whose 8114 points in Australia in May was just 86 points below the IAAF 'A" standard, Andrea Miller in the 100m hurdles, 5000m runner Jake Robertson and boom shot putter Jacko Gill.

Badminton
Unlikely. The sport had a clearout of most of its leading players after last year's Commonwealth Games.

There are no men within sight. The longshot chance is Denmark-based Aucklander Michelle Chan. She is ranked No 79 but New Zealand Olympic Committee's tough criteria insists a player must be in the world top 16 to be selected.

Basketball
There are some significant hoops the Tall Blacks and Tall Ferns must jump through before booking their passage to London.

First there's a three-match Oceania playoff against Australia, in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney on September 7, 9 and 11. The winner gets the Oceania spot.

The only recourse for the loser is a repechage tournament in June-July in Europe. The top three men's teams and top five women's team get the London trip.

Beach volleyball
Both events feature 24 teams. New Zealand's best men, Kirk Pittman and Jason Lochhead, are world No 31 and contesting the world champs in Rome this week.

The top 16 combinations at the cut-off next June automatically make the Games field. But there's a catch. Countries are restricted to two teams per gender.

So if Pittman and Lochhead can get onto the cusp of the 16, they could still be in business.

After that New Zealand teams, assuming they've progressed through the Oceania zonal system, must win the Continental tournament next June. Finish second and there's one final playoff tournament.

Two women's teams are longish shots - Hannah Croad and Micah Lindsay-Brown, and Debbie Hill and Melissa Ruru.

Boxing
New Zealand have hopes of being on the first Games card to feature women. The best chances are Magan Maka of Auckland in the 75kg class; a couple of likely lightweights (60kg) in Auckland's Alexis Pritchard and Hamilton's Eske Dost ; and flyweight (51kg) Siona Fernandes of Auckland.

Super-heavyweight Joseph Parker looms as the best male prospect.

Men making the top eight at the world champs in Azerbaijan in September go. Then there's the Oceania champs, in Darwin in March. Boxers must win their category, but on its own that might not be enough.

Canoeing
If you want a convoluted system, look no further than canoeing.

The world champs in Hungary in August are crucial.

Qualification for the K4 is based solely on that event. The top 10 nations qualify as long as three continents are represented.

The top six K2 crews, from any continent, qualify directly; the next three best placings from three different continents earn chance to qualify through continental champs, in New Zealand's case the Oceania's in Sydney next March. Europe is guaranteed the 10th and final slot.

In the K1, the top eight from any continent qualify direct in Hungary. Europe is guaranteed two of the remaining six spots, while America, Africa, Asia and Oceania also get one.

Clear as mud then. That's the sport's criteria, then the NZOC has to be satisfied the paddlers have potential to finish in the top eight.

New Zealand had one whitewater representative at Beijing, and Luuka Jones is trying once again. Aaron Osborne is the other possibility.

Cycling
Cycling is based on qualifying points and has one of the more complicated qualifying processes.

Divided into four disciplines - track, road, mountain bike and BMX - the two-wheeled exponents will be, along with rowing, New Zealand's biggest hope for a medal haul.

The track spots will close off at the Melbourne world champs from April 4-8.

Early form suggests New Zealand will be represented in the men's and women's pursuit, the men's and women's omnium, the men's sprint, the men's team sprint, the keirin and the kilo.

Road is more complicated as it qualifies late in the piece and relies on the health of cyclists who have ridden for European and North American seasons.

With Sam Bewley and Jesse Sergent definitely riding track and Hayden Roulston contemplating a return to the boards, Greg Henderson and Julian Dean may be the only contenders for the men's road race.

The top nations can get up to six riders but New Zealand are likely to get two spots. Of the women Cath Cheatley and Linda Villumsen appeal as the only options.

The only mountainbiker with a chance is English-based Rosara Joseph, whose form has been solid but not spectacular.

New Zealand could qualify two spots in both men's and women's BMX, the qualifying points system carrying through to the world championships in Birmingham in May. Marc Willers and Sarah Walker are the standout candidates.

Diving
A long shot. Wellington teenager Gabrielle Armstrong-Scott was at last year's Commonwealth Games, but has retired - at 14. The only possibility is Canterbury's Amy Kroening, who is training in Canada.

Kroening is not going to the world champs in Shanghai next month, which is the first qualifying event for London. That leaves a meet in London next February as her only entry point.

Equestrian
There's a chance, albeit slim, that New Zealand could be in all three disciplines, eventing, show jumping and possibly dressage.

Three-day eventing is a strong medal hope. Mark Todd's win at Badminton last month showed that, at 55, his skills remain undiminished.

1996 individual gold medallist Blyth Tait is trying to make a comeback, ageless Andrew Nicholson remains among the best in the sport, while Caroline Powell, Clarke Johnstone and Jonathon Paget have all pulled off notable wins of late.

There will be a team of four and one individual in London, the team due to be named on July 2.

Show jumper Katie McVean hopes to qualify at Aachen, Germany next month with a win on Dutch gelding Wavantos VD Renvillehoeve.

Taranaki's Vanessa Way and Clevedon's Louisa Hill are dressage longshots, aiming at a qualifying event in Australia in November.

Fencing
English-based Jess Beer, who competed at Athens in 2004, is again looking to qualify in the epee.

The 31-year-old Aucklander's best chance will be through the Asia-Oceania zonal tournament around May. Win that and she goes.

There is one possible longshot, Hamish Chan of Auckland, a talented 18-year-old who made the last 16 at last year's Commonwealth champs.

Gymnastics
Rhythmics no, artistic and trampoline? Possibly.

New Zealand have five athletes - three men, two women - contesting the world artistic champs in Tokyo in October. It is the only qualifying event.

Auckland's Patrick Peng and Ohio State's former North Harbour athlete Misha Koudinov appeal as the best chances.

There is one place for a New Zealand athlete of each gender.

Two teams of four trampolinists are attending the world champs in Birmingham in November. The Games fields are of 16 and it's an individual only event.

The top eight automatically qualify for the Games. The women might have a better chance due to fewer international numbers.

Hockey Both national teams should qualify. Both are ranked No 7, and had decent Commonwealth Games campaigns in India last year, finishing with silver (women) and bronze (men) medals.

They will head to Hobart for their Oceania qualifying series against Australia and Fiji from October 1-11. The top two in each progressing directly to London. It should be a cinch. But miss out in Hobart and that's that.

Judo
Qualification for London is based on world ranking, points for which can be accumulated through World Cup events, grand slams and August's world champs in Paris.

The International Judo Federation requirement is the top 16 for women and top 22 for men. Countries are limited to one entrant in each class. The NZOC's cut-off is more stringent, with a projected top 16 finish the cut-off.

Four stand out. Under-70kg athlete Moira de Villiers is the top-ranked athlete at No 24. If you take out the nations with double-ups, her true position is more like No 18, just outside the cut-off. She is on scholarship in Paris.

At under-73kg Sean Choi is ranked one spot behind de Villiers in the world rankings. If it stays the same, double-ups would take him into the top 22, but outside the NZOC-stipulated cut-off.

Under-100kg and under-90kg exponents Jason Koster and Ryan Dill-Russell are inside the top 50 and are outside chances.

Rowing
Seven medals were won at last November's world championships on Lake Karapiro in the Olympic classes.

Rowing New Zealand are sending two elite groups to Europe this year. The first are in action this weekend in a World Cup regatta in Hamburg. The world champs at Bled, Slovenia in August-September is this year's Olympic qualifying regatta.

The backup Olympic qualifying regatta is at Lucerne next year. RNZ expect to figure in at least 12 of the 14 Olympic categories at Eton Dorney and be among the leading medal-winning nations.

Sailing
Olympic qualification is at the world champs in Perth in December. Once the classes are qualified, the sailors have to fulfil Yachting NZ and the NZOC's own selection criteria.

Yachting NZ expect to qualify a boat in every class, but there may be a couple that are borderline, the women's RS:X for one.

In classes where there are more than one sailor or boat vying for selection it will be up to Yachting NZ's Olympic selection panel to determine who gets the nod.

Sailors have also nominated pinnacle events at which they must perform to earn selection.

The most contentious classes are the Laser, where veterans Andrew Murdoch and Mike Bullot are battling it out with a few talented youngsters, and the men's RS:X, where Beijing gold medallist Tom Ashley faces long-time rival JP Tobin.

Shooting
There were four shooters in Beijing and the likelihood is a similar-sized squad for London. New Zealand hopes largely rest on winning quota spots, achieved through strong performances in leadup events.

One of the criteria is an expectation of a top 16 finish at the Games event.

Right now, no one across the pistol, smallbore and shotgun disciplines has been nominated.

Soccer
Both national teams have decent chances, especially the women. Both were in Beijing three years ago in their first taste of the Olympics.

The men's Olympic programme is for under-23 teams, although once qualified for the finals, three over-age players can be brought in. The women's event has no age restriction.

The men face a qualifying tournament in Fiji, around mid-March. The winner goes to London; there is no backstop qualifier.

The Football Ferns are strong fancies. As easy winners of the Olympic qualifying tournament in Auckland last October, they have a home and away decider against the winners of the Pacific region tournament, in early September.

The women are ranked No 24 and it would be a surprise if they don't make the finals.

Swimming
One contentious review out of the way, chastened swimming bosses will likely have a smaller team on the blocks than in recent Games.

The leading contenders are backstrokers Daniel Bell and Gareth Kean, freestyler Lauren Boyle and breaststroker Glenn Snyders.

Dark horses include sprinter Hayley Palmer, working in the US with celebrated coach Randy Reese, and Kurt Bassett.

Everything comes down to the Olympic trials at West Auckland in March. The NZOC has yet to sign off, but it seems certain a FINA 'A' qualifying time in a final will be enough.

Open water swimmer Cara Baker has a chance of qualifying for the Olympics direct from the Shanghai world champs next month if she finishes in the top 10.

If an Australian male does something similar, it opens up an Oceania spot for somebody like Rotorua's Kane Radford to attempt at an event in Portugal next June.

Table tennnis
TTNZ will this time focus on the men's and women's teams events, but high performance manager Murray Finch concedes that on current form and rankings, a men's team in London is "highly improbable".

There is more optimism for the women. To take the Oceania teams berth, they would need to take two of the top three singles positions.

Finch believed 34-year-old Karen Li still had the ability to dominate qualifying and a group of three players beneath her were making enough strides to suggest that New Zealand could be competitive should they qualify a team for London.

Taekwondo
Hopeful of backing up from Beijing, where Robyn Cheong and Logan Campbell are looking for back-to-back Games appearances.

They, along with fellow Aucklander Vaughn Scott and Wellington's Hayley Schofield are off to the Olympic qualifying tournament in Baku, Azerbaijan at the end of this month.

After that, they have the Oceania qualifying event in Noumea in September.

Tennis
Marina Erakovic and ... stop right there.

The Olympic programme has two 64-person singles draws, and two of 32 for the doubles.

Erakovic is in her best form for the last year, making the last eight in Birmingham last week and this week qualifying into the main draw at Wimbledon. Her ranking is now 145.

The top 56 players get automatic places in the singles fields, but countries are restricted to four entries. To make the draw Erakovic would realistically need to be around the top 70 at the cut-off point.

No men are within cooee in singles or doubles.

Triathlon
A sport where New Zealand have a solid recent Olympic pedigree.

Bevan Docherty is aiming for a third successive medal after silver and bronze in Athens and Beijing. Other New Zealand men in the frame include Kris Gemmell, up-and-comer Ryan Sissons and James Elvery.; with Andrea Hewitt, Debbie Tanner, Kate McIlroy and Nicki Samuels providing a four-pronged women's challenge. However there will be tears next year; at least one of that quartet will miss out.

The London leg of the world champs series on August 6-7 is this year's qualifying event; the Sydney race early next year the final chance for New Zealand athletes.

Two runners in the top 10 in London in August, guarantees two Olympic spots, but not necessarily for those two athletes. The top eight countries at the end of the world circuit around May next year will get a third place in the respective fields.

Water polo
For the men and women, there's the one Oceania berth on offer, a highly unlikely route given Australia's superiority.

For the men, there's a final qualifying tournament next April, in Edmonton, Canada, where three spots are on offer. They are longshots.

Despite the women attending this year's worlds, there is no direct qualification through to the eight-team Olympic finals. They were 13th at the worlds in 2009. Their final qualifier is in Italy. They appeal as a better bet.

Weightlifting
National coach Richard Dryden is confident New Zealand will have both a male and female representative on the boards.

Qualifying will be determined at next year's Oceania champs in Samoa. Athletes accumulate points for their countries, with the top five men's countries qualifying one spot each for London, likewise the top four women's teams.

Weightlifting New Zealand then select the athletes using the Sinclair formula that equalises athletes across body weights. Athletes must be capable of finishing in the top 16 in London.

Stas Chalaev and Richard Patterson look to be battling for the men's spot; Tracey Lambrechs is most likely women's pick.

Wrestling
New Zealand will send a small team to the worlds in Turkey later this year, focusing instead on qualification through an Oceania-African trial in Morocco during April and May.

They must win their class at the nationals in Mount Maunganui in August, before finishing in the top two at the Oceania champs in Sydney in January to qualify for the Oceania-Africa event. They could circumvent that with an unlikely top six placing at the worlds. Greco-Roman grapplers Sam Belkin and Clinton Davies and freestyler Andrei Paulet shape as the best bets.