A man walks by posters to promote the Olympic and Paralympic games planned for next year. Photo / AP
She's trying to avoid getting carried away, but New Zealand Olympic Committee chief executive Kereyn Smith is quietly confident Tokyo 2021 will happen.
When postponed in March, it seemed hard to fathom the Games would even go ahead next July, with Covid continuing to spread with little containment, putting lifeand sport around the world in jeopardy.
Smith concedes it's probably only in the last month and a half where she's felt more certain the Olympics will go ahead.
"We're feeling there's a real, clear pathway now," Smith told the Herald. "For a while people were starting to lose confidence in it being possible, but it's probably been in the last six months where we've been getting more information from the Tokyo Organising Committee, the IOC [International Olympic Committee] and Japan itself, that gives us a real sense of not if, but how the Olympics take place."
The signs are certainly promising. Last weekend, 30 gymnasts from Japan, China, Russia and the United States competed in the Friendship and Solidarity Competition in Tokyo, with 2000 fans in attendance.
That further good news was boosted this week, with it confirmed that athletes arriving in Tokyo for the Games will be exempt from the 14-day isolation period. Olympic organisers say details still need to be worked out, but measures for athletes are likely to include coronavirus testing within 72 hours of arriving in Japan.
Smith concedes to breathing a sigh of relief when finding out that news.
"We've seen a lot and heard a lot from athletes about how debilitating [it is] having to do a quarantine and not being able to exercise at all… Athletes need an environment to continue their lifetime's work."
IOC President Thomas Bach this week said he's contemplating hoarding a supply of coronavirus vaccine to ensure the safe staging of the Tokyo Games next July and August.
On Monday, pharmaceuticals company Pfizer said early results suggested they might have a vaccine 90 per cent effective at zapping Covid-19.
Bach prefaced his comments by saying the world's most vulnerable should take priority. "My sense of it is the IOC's seeing vaccines as one of the safety measures, but not the silver bullet," Smith said. "Physical distancing, PPE, all of those other options are more important and sustainable than reliance on a vaccine. That's how we've been viewing it, and given the difficulty distributing vaccines across the globe, I anticipate that's the way it'll have to be."
However despite the ever-growing confidence and optimism around the Games, Smith concedes there are still many logistical bridges to be crossed.
"We're still yet to get into the itty-bitty detail. How will a village operate? How will athletes go in and out of Tokyo? At this stage, we'll have to quarantine coming back.
"There's also those who are yet to have secured their place, athletes and their sports are working through a path to qualification. We're working really hard with them and advocating with the international federations and the IOC to be cognisant of the situation that our athletes in New Zealand, Australia and Oceania face.
"And for those who have already secured a place and want to keep preparing and be in the best form possible, they're having to be very flexible and adaptable around how they prepare… hopefully we'll be able to get a transtasman bubble opened up to have more dynamic training."
Smith reflects on the last few months, and how the ever-moving feast, seems at least somewhat more stable.
"I'm just really pleased for the athletes that there's some pathway forward because my goodness it's been really tough on them. I'm feeling like it's really stretching our minds around how we make this a reality, but that's now global sport. This is the new world, this is how it's got to be, so if we can play a part to help out sports and athletes adapt to the future competition environment then that's a good thing."