KEY POINTS:
Over the next 11 months, hundreds of Kiwis will run, jump, punch, lift, swim, ride, shoot, spike, pedal and grapple in their bid to be at next year's Olympic Games.
Many will fall short. There will be tears amid the moments of rejoicing. The New Zealand Olympic Committee has set tough criteria across the board.
The bottom line is they want to pick athletes with an expectation of making the top 16 in individual events and teams who can get beyond the first round.
It's an unforgiving stance, designed to raise the bar on Olympic performance across the board in Beijing.
It's not got unanimous support in the athletic community, primarily from those who are likely to suffer.
Some sports' chances of meeting the criteria are slim to nil. They are hurting.
NZOC secretary-general Barry Maister acknowledges there will be some pain.
"It's a really interesting issue for us. By and large, sports have been supportive and some have gone [set standards] higher than that," he said.
"Some say 'this cuts us out' and we're saying it might but to be an Olympian you have to be up there."
In most cases, just doing the qualifying mark is no cast-iron guarantee. After that, they must be approved by the NZOC selectors, Maister, Simon Wickham and Mike Stanley.
It's possible NZ might send one of its bigger Games teams but with representation in fewer sports.
That's because two NZ soccer teams could be in Beijing - which will be an Olympic first - along with two hockey teams and two basketball teams.
Some sports are on solid ground in terms of expecting to send a good-sized team.
Rowing is a prime example. They are in good shape.
Sailing have qualified in eight of the 11 classes, with hopes of two more early next year; cycling have fingers crossed they could get up to 20, including BMX world No 1 Sarah Walker, at that discipline's first Games.
The Olympics open on August 8. The clock is ticking for the contenders.
ARCHERY
No.
AQUATICS
Swimming's sudden death qualifier is the national open championships at Waitakere in March. Do the time there or don't go to Beijing.
Three relay teams have qualified from last March's world champs in Melbourne - men's 4 x 100m medley relay and the women's 4 x 100m and 4 x 200m freestyle - but who will swim them is not sorted out until March.
Swimmers must have done a minimum Fina B qualifying standard.
To qualify for individual events, swimmers must do Fina A standards, which are based on making the top 16.
A realistic figure? About eight to qualify, plus relays.
Synchronised sisters Nina and Lisa Daniels are on track to be NZ's first Olympic representatives.
They won the Oceania slot at the Swiss Open - identified by Fina as the Olympic qualifying event this year - by finishing 10th of 21 in the duet.
The Commonwealth Games bronze medallists last year, they have consistently bettered rivals Australia since Melbourne.
Diving has a chance with Brisbane-based Wayne Cobb in the 3m springboard. He went to the Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur nine years ago, retired and is back in the sport.
His last chance is at the Beijing World Cup meet in February where he must make the top 18.
The only other possibility is American-based Damien Brown, who is rated a slim outside hope.
ATHLETICS
Seven athletes have posted qualifying times - Valerie Vili (shot put), Beatrice Faumuina (discus), Adrian Blincoe (5000m), Nick Willis (1500m), Kimberley Smith (5000m and 10,000m), Michael Aish (10,000m and marathon) and Nina Rillstone (marathon).
Athletics NZ cut to the chase: International Amateur Athletics Federation B standards aren't considered and, in a couple of cases, they made qualifying marks tougher than the IAAF had set.
Several others are in the frame, including sprinter James Dolphin, marathoner Jonathan Wyatt, decathlete Brent Newdick, walker Tony Sargisson and steeplechaser Kate McIlroy.
The world champs start in Osaka on August 25. Qualification beckons and ANZ are hoping to get 12, possibly 13, to Beijing.
BADMINTON
North Harbour's John Moody is a realistic chance in the singles. He's off to the world champs in Kuala Lumpur next week but has drawn sixth-seeded Chinese player Yu Chen.
However, he's had a top 16 finish at the Indonesia Super Series in May and, at No 36, is on the brink of the top 24 - the Olympic field is 32 - once country restrictions come in.
Women's singles player Rachel Hindley and mixed doubles pair Craig Cooper and Renee Flavell have extremely hard jobs to make it.
BASEBALL
No.
BASKETBALL
The Tall Blacks play Australia in a best-of-three to qualify for Beijing as Oceania representative. That's the easier route.
Lose and they're off to a repechage tournament in Europe shortly before the Games.
Five spots are available from that but heavyweights like Germany, Serbia, Italy and France might be there.
The Tall Ferns have a three-way Oceania series in Dunedin next month against Australia and a Pacific Island nation yet to be confirmed. Australia, as world champions, are already in Beijing.
The runner-up gets the Oceania spot and, if NZ don't win that, it's time to take up tiddlywinks.
Their biggest problem may be convincing the NZOC of the merit of their case to go to China.
BOXING
A tough predicament. Wellington's Joe Blackbourn is the one real candidate to win nomination. He bagged a bronze at the Commonwealth champs in Liverpool last month in the 69kg division.
The minimum requirement is winning the Oceania title next year, but then they must persuade the NZOC selectors they are a chance to make the top 16.
The world champs are in Chicago in October. Wins there will certainly help but they're no guarantee.
CANOEING
The world championships, doubling as the Olympic qualifying regatta, end in Duisberg, Germany, this weekend.
NZ's former world champion Ben Fouhy, who won silver in Athens in the K1 1000m, is in tonight's final and has qualified, as have K2 1000m pair Steven Ferguson and Mike Walker by qualifying for their A final. K1 500m paddler Ferguson is a decent chance.
The K4 women's crew might get a final chance at the last chance regatta in Penrith next year.
CYCLING
Four disciplines - road, track, mountainbike and the newcomer, BMX, in which world No 1 Sarah Walker from Kawerau is a royal chance of at least a medal.
Look for Rosara Joseph and Kaschi Leuchs to qualify for the mountainbike races.
Julian Dean and Joanne Kiesanowski are strong chances to head the road campaigns and up to about eight track riders.
The key is chasing qualifying points and, if they get 20 to Beijing, Cycling New Zealand will be happy.
EQUESTRIAN
Show jumping qualified a team of four in Balve, Germany, last month. They'll do team and individual - subject to NZOC approval.
Dressage have a tough job. They need strong performances at the Oceania qualifier in Sydney, against riders from Australia and Japan.
The eventers will be assessed off Olympic rider rankings in May next year. The plan is to get six riders and horses to Beijing, a team of four and two individuals. Once those who have already qualified are taken out of the equation, prospects are good.
FENCING
Jessica Beer competed in Athens but didn't last long. However, she, Jenny Hope and Sarah Raudkivi are NZ's best prospects for Beijing.
Beer, based in England and Hungary and NZ's best-ranked fencer at No 113, and Melbourne-based Hope are in the epee. They surprised by winning the Commonwealth champs title in Ireland last year and are off to the Asian champs in China next month. New York-based Raudkivi contests the foil class.
Rankings can be misleading and point more to how often competitors are in action. Even so, they have a stiff task, with a minimum requirement being the top 32 at the world champs in St Petersburg next month and must show consistency of performance as well.
The NZOC standard may be their toughest hurdle. Nominations are due in by the end of the year.
FOOTBALL
The men's competition is of 16 under-23 teams, the women's 12, with no age restriction. Both NZ teams can qualify, but the women's chances are stronger.
The men's Oceania qualifying series is next March, the venue still to be finalised, with direct entry to the winner - and remember Australia are now part of Asia, significantly enhancing NZ's prospects.
The women will play the winner of the South Pacific Games - likely to be Papua New Guinea, Samoa or Tonga - in either a home-and-away contest or a single play-off game, the winners to get a plane to Beijing.
The women are in the World Cup next month and play heavyweights Brazil, Denmark and hosts China. Not a bad preparation.
Mildly interesting stat: Football is the only event which will start before the opening ceremony on August 8.
GYMNASTICS
The world championships are the only Olympic qualifying event this year and athletes must make the top 15 to be eligible. NZ are contesting three worlds.
The rhythmic champs are in Greece next month. NZ's chances in a tough, 120-nation event are remote.
The trampoline worlds are at the end of October in Quebec and two Kiwis are a chance, Aucklander Ben Windsor, 19, and former world open double mini-champion Kylie Walker. She retired and was living in England but has returned and is making a comeback.
The artistic champs are in Stuttgart early next month. Three Kiwis are contenders - national champion Mark Holyoake, Daniel Good and gifted 16-year-old Misha Koudinov, who returned this week from finishing eighth in the floor discipline at a World Cup event in Shanghai. He's the first New Zealander to make a world final. He's worth watching.
HANDBALL
No.
HOCKEY
The men's Black Sticks play their Oceania qualifying series in Buderim, Queensland, next month, against Australia and Papua New Guinea. The winner progresses to Beijing, second place has a final chance at an Olympic qualifier at North Harbour in February.
The women's Black Sticks also look to qualify at Buderim through the Oceania round robin. Australia, as world No 3, are sure of a spot. New Zealand, ranked 11, will qualify if they win or finish runner-up. Third? They're gone.
Both competitions have 12 teams.
JUDO
Going through a rebuilding stage. Players must prove their capability through a series of tournaments in the next few months.
The world champs are in Rio from September 13-16 and there are a series of Asian circuit events, along with the Oceania open and closed champs in Perth and Christchurch respectively.
Prospects? Auckland's Ryan Dill-Russell, Lee Calder and Andrew Pragnell, along with Gisborne's Joy Williams, are in the frame but it's going to be tough to make it.
MODERN PENTATHLON
No.
ROWING
Likely to be one of NZ's big medal hopes.
Caroline and Georgina Evers-Swindell won gold in Athens three years ago and they, two-time world champion single sculler Mahe Drysdale, coxless pair Nathan Twaddle and George Bridgewater, and Juliette Haigh and Nicky Coles - both world champs silver medallists last year - and the coxless four are the elite of the elite squad.
Olympic qualifying happens at the world champs in Munich starting on August 26, with the Lucerne regatta next year the last-chance opportunity for those who miss out.
SAILING
NZ have qualified in eight of the 11 classes - Finn, men's and women's RS:X boardsailing, Star, Yngling, women's 470, Laser and Laser Radial.
Four nominations have been made, for three-time Olympic medallist Barbara Kendall (RS:X), Finn man Dan Slater, Jo Aleh (Laser Radial) and Andrew Murdoch (Laser).
There's still a chance for men's 470 and Tornado early next year at their world champs, the 470s in Melbourne in January, the Tornado at Takapuna at the end of February. However, 49er almost certainly won't be represented in Beijing.
SHOOTING
The Oceania champs are in Sydney at the end of next month. From that, NZ will win quota spots for Beijing. A good bet is perhaps five or six.
The New Zealand Shooting Federation will then hold trials early next year to sort out the nominees, who must then pass NZOC examination.
There are 15 disciplines on the Beijing programme, from shotgun, through rifle to pistol. NZ are targeting all of them.
SOFTBALL
NZ women's team missed qualification in the Asia Oceania series last February.
TABLE TENNIS
Facing an uphill struggle. Singles? The NZOC requirement is the ability to make the top 16. Forget it.
The women's team is a chance. They must make the top three at the Commonwealth champs (did so in India last month); win promotion to division one of the world teams champs in China in February (hard) and get two in the top three of the Oceania singles qualifying tournament next year (even harder).
They doubtless reckon someone at HQ doesn't like them.
TAEKWONDO
Beijing is achieved through the Olympic qualifying event in Manchester next month, where the first three in each of eight divisions qualify their country for a spot, or the Oceania champs in December or January, where winners only qualify. The NZOC has the final say, with a top eight expectation in Beijing.
TENNIS
Done largely on rankings, with some restrictions. Men? No. Women? Highly unlikely. Marina Erakovic, at No 180, will need to rocket up the ladder in the next few months to have even a remote chance.
TRIATHLON
New Zealand could get three to the line in each event. That's based on rankings but qualification will come from two events: next month's Beijing World Cup and the Mooloolaba event in March.
There's a scale system used for qualification. Be in the top 16 in Beijing and the first Kiwi and you go; be second Kiwi and in the top 10; in the top five and third Kiwi and you go.
If only two qualify, then there's a case to be put to the Olympic selectors considering New Zealanders are highly ranked.
Athens silver medallist Bevan Docherty (world No 3), Kris Gemmell (No 4), Shane Reed (No 10), and Sam Warriner, Andrea Hewitt and Debbie Tanner are world Nos 3, 4 and 5 respectively.
Strong medal chances next year.
VOLLEYBALL
Beach volleyball pair Kirk Pitman and Jason Lochhead are right in the frame. The Olympic programme is for 24 teams.
They finished 17th equal at the recent world champs and are ranked No 26 for Olympic qualifying purposes, three outside those in the field if the Games began today. Countries are limited to two Olympic entries and the hosts China get one spot.
The qualifying circuit comprises 31 events running until next July. The NZOC requirement is top 16. Pitman, originally from Northland, and Tauranga's Lochhead have beaten five pairs ranked ahead of them this year. They are a good chance.
Women's pair Susan Blundell and Anna Scarlett are to make a late run starting next year. They'll need to perform out of their skins to make up lost time.
Indoor volleyball? No chance.
WATER POLO
Both teams have best-of-three Oceania play-offs with Australia for one spot in Beijing; the men in Auckland at the end of November, the women in Brisbane from December 17-19.
The women are experienced and rated a chance; the men, who are relatively young, will struggle. Lose and there's a final qualifying tournament of 12 teams of whom three qualify for the Games.
The men's is in Oradea, Romania, from March 2-7, the women's in Trieste, Italy, from February 19-26.
WEIGHTLIFTING
The ability to make a top 16 finish in Beijing is the key criterion. The world champs in Thailand next month are an Olympic qualifying event, but athletes can qualify through the Oceania championship in Apia in November.
It'll be tough and the bottom line is they'll need to convince the selectors of their worth.
WRESTLING
Two possibilities. Rangiora's Stephen Hill (84kg) and Christchurch woman Olena Bonderenko (48kg) are contesting the world champs in Azerbaijan next month.
They are training in Russia and must make the top eight at the worlds to be in the frame. Tough but both are rated chances.
