KEY POINTS:
Time for a spot of crystal-ball gazing. Where might New Zealand's Beijing medals come from?
The country's best return was 13 in Seoul in 1988; Athens four years ago brought four gold and two silver.
Gold
Mahe Drysdale (rowing single scull):
-New Zealand's flagbearer has won the past three world titles. This will complete the set. None of his rivals has beaten him when it really counts, so mentally he's the boss. New Zealand's closest thing to a strong gold favourite.
Valerie Vili (shot-put):
-Again, the world champion but she's under pressure from a couple of burly Belarussians. Her best throw this year, 20.13m, has been surpassed five times by Nadzeya Ostapchuk and Natallia Mikhnevich. Still she only needs one piece of perfect athletic synchronicity between mind and body.
Rob Waddell and Nathan Cohen (rowing double scull):
-They've only been together a few months but have won both World Cup races in Lucerne and Poznan in emphatic fashion. Physically the odd couple, but it's working. For Waddell it would be two Olympic golds, eight years apart.
Sarah Walker (BMX):
-She could be the first owner of a BMX gold, with the event making its Olympic debut. The world's top-ranked rider has stiff opposition from a couple of French riders and Briton Shanaze Reade. In a sport loaded with bumps and thumps, if she gets to the first corner without a snag, watch out.
Tom Ashley (boardsailing):
-The North Shore man won the world title in Takapuna this year. He won gold at the test event at Qingdao last year too, so he knows what will be required. A case of been there, done that, now do it again.
Silver
Nathan Twaddle/George Bridgewater (rowing coxless pair):
-This might be selling the experienced pair one short. They were second and first in two World Cup regattas this year. Possessing a withering late burst of speed, they are sure to be close.
Bevan Docherty (triathlon):
-He too might have been in the gold column but for Spain's Javier Gomez, the world champion and clear favourite with seven wins from eight starts this year. A second silver to follow Athens four years ago? Not to be sneezed at.
Bronze
Moss Burmester (200m butterfly):
-Seven men will battle for two medals, with M.F. Phelps seemingly certain to secure gold. Burmester has put up the seventh-quickest time of the year. He'll need to shift to make the podium, but must be a chance.
Storm Uru/Peter Taylor (lightweight double scull):
-This would be some story. Only qualified in June, yet are one of just two crews to get within 1s of the favoured British pairing this year. Have picked up serious speed in the past couple of months.
Sam Warriner (triathlon):
-Ranked second in the world, she is renowned for her fighting qualities. Older than most of her rivals, bank on the Whangarei athlete leaving everything on the course.
Barbara Kendall (boardsailing):
-Silver medallist at the world champs. Age certainly seems not to have dimmed this great Olympian's talents or desire. Sailing, like some of its winds, can be fickle and as with Ashley it'll be a case of handling the on-water conditions best.
Andrew Murdoch (Laser):
-With his last three senior world champs finishes being 3rd, 6th and 2nd he has a consistency to his work which is eye-catching.
Hopefuls
And keep an eye on this group, who range from decent chances to outsiders who might just produce:
-Hayden Roulston (4000m individual pursuit); men's team pursuit
-Dan Slater (Finn sailing); Steven Ferguson/Mike Walker (K2 1000m)
-Erin Taylor (K1 500m); Three-day eventing team; Marc Willers (BMX)
-Hamish Pepper/Carl Williams (Star sailing).
