KEY POINTS:
Olympic year always brings bold predictions of Kiwi medal success, but when it comes to forecasts in Beijing, boardsailor Tom Ashley has generally flown under the radar.
Not that he minds.
Typical of his reticent nature, Ashley is quite happy to do without the hype and fanfare that often comes with lofty Olympic expectations.
Away from the glare of the giddy New Zealand public, the RS:X World Champion has been quietly going about his business, putting the finishing touches on his preparation in Valencia.
So far, all is going to plan for the 24-year-old Devonport man. Ashley is enjoying the relaxed environment in Spain, where he is training alongside a number of other boardsailors he will line up against at the Olympic regatta.
"I'm keeping things pretty low-key and trying to stay as relaxed as possible," he said.
"It doesn't help to get too wound up about things. I've had all the training planned for months and it's just a matter of sticking to it and doing what I planned all those months ago."
But don't be fooled by his approach, Ashley has every chance of soaring in China.
This year's Games will be his second Olympics, having competed as a 20-year-old in Athens four years ago.
He finished 10th in 2004, but admits he was pretty green back then.
He has since radically altered his training regime, both on and off the water, and gained a wealth of international experience.
His results over the past few years suggest he has found the winning formula, and Ashley says he has stuck to what he knows when it came to planning for the Olympics.
"I didn't have to reinvent the wheel I just sort of rehashed the build-ups I've done for big regattas over the past few years, which made it easier to plan as well."
And why wouldn't you if you'd all but dominated the sport over that time?
Ashley has been virtually untouchable at the top of men's boardsailing in recent years - his profile on the Sparc website catalogues win after win including a gold medal at last year's pre-Olympic regatta in Qingdao and a world championship title in Takapuna this year.
But can all this translate in to an Olympic medal? Yachting New Zealand will certainly be hoping so.
The national body is eager to show it has learned from a disastrous campaign in Athens, in which New Zealand failed to come home with a sailing medal for the first time since the 1976 Montreal Games.
It forced Yachting NZ to re-examine its selection and funding criteria. In most sports athletes have to demonstrate an ability to finish in the top 16 of the world to earn Olympic nomination. But Yachting NZ will nominate Kiwi sailors only if they display medal-winning potential.
Ashley said after the disappointment of Athens there is a real resolve among the sailing team to perform well in Qingdao. But in a sport with so many variables to contend with, they can't afford to be too bullish about their chances.
"Obviously in Athens we were trying to win medals as well, but it just didn't work out.
"Sailing is a sport in which anything can happen and sometimes you're at the mercy of conditions and all you can do is try your hardest.
"I think we're all better prepared than we were for Athens, but it's still no guarantee."
For Ashley, the biggest challenge the Olympics presents is a mental one.
"The sailing itself is not too different at all, but there is all the extra hype to contend with, I guess. I think if you can block out all the hype and ignore all the attention, it's pretty much the same. But a lot of people get pretty wound up."
It's something the three-time youth world champion has clearly mastered.
In Valencia, Ashley has been sailing with friends from Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands. These friends also happen to be some of his fiercest rivals on the water. It's testament to Ashley's easygoing nature that just weeks out from the biggest regatta of his life he is happy to interact with his competition
What's evident in the sailing community - in the Olympic classes at least - is that there is a sense of camaraderie among all the competitors.
And Ashley wouldn't have it any other way.
"It's great, it's definitely a lot better that way. If everyone was stressed out all the time it wouldn't help preparing for an event like this."
Valencia was chosen for Ashley's build-up as the light-air conditions there are similar to what are expected in Qingdao.
And, shattering any myths about the sparkling Mediterranean, Ashley joked he had also become accustomed to sailing in "pretty dodgy" water.
The much-publicised algae outbreak that has choked up the coastline of Qingdao has added another unknown dimension for the sailors preparing for the Olympics.
Ashley has seen the incredible pictures of the coastline blanketed in the blue-green algae and heard some of the feedback from other sailors based there, but typically he isn't too fazed about the situation.
He's happy to leave the worrying up to the Chinese officials, who by all accounts are getting on top of the situation.
Likewise, Ashley isn't letting other external factors, such as what some of his main rivals are up to, disturb his own focus.
"There's a couple of guys who I have no idea what they've been up to, but to be honest the most important thing is to prepare myself as well as I can.
"No one is going to be doing anything new, it's just a sailing regatta, and the guy who sails best is going to win."
It could just be a winning philosophy.
