A simple matter of medals

Eric Murray and Hamish Bond. Photo / Supplied

History says New Zealand is likely to earn no more than three gold medals at next year's Olympic Games in London. New Zealand has bettered that mark once, at Los Angeles 1984, although some might argue that a Soviet-led boycott assisted an eventual haul of eight gold medals.

Form, pedigree and investment suggest New Zealand should match or trump previous achievements. Against that is the intense pressure of Olympic competition and medal-winning home advantage for Britain who are strong in each of New Zealand's core sports - rowing, cycling, equestrian, sailing, triathlon and track & field.

Reaching the top of the podium will not come easily, not that it ever has, and those six sports appear to be where New Zealand has the most realistic chance of gold.

However, as the following analysis shows, there are many chances for gold and the facility for suprises is ever-present at the Oympics.

Rowing
The world championships, starting August 28, will be the best gauge of New Zealand's rowing medal chances at London. Unlike 2009 and 2010, where numerous top crews took sabbaticals, 2011 is Olympic qualifying year where the best dust off their skiffs.

Eric Murray and Hamish Bond look New Zealand's best hope for a gold medal across all sports. As the 2009 and 2010 world champions in the men's pair, they look likely to repeat that feat this year. However, the duo are aware the Olympics require something extra.

In 2008, with Carl Meyer and James Dallinger in the men's coxless four, they failed to make the Olympic final despite going in as world champions. They also need to shrug off the historical baggage of failing to make the final the last time they competed at the Lake Dorney Olympic course in 2006 - as part of a four at the world championships.

Looking at their tenacity over the past two years it seems such mental frailty is gone. With six other medals in Olympic classes at last year's world championships, New Zealand looks set for a substantial haul, but how many others could be gold?

* Emma Twigg is fulfilling her promise after bronze at last year's world championship and a gold against top opposition at the most recent World Cup.

* Mahe Drysdale's had numerous injury problems and faces stiff competition from Czech Ondrej Synek and Norwegian double Olympic gold medallist Olaf Tufte, both of whom beat him in Beijing.

* The women's pair of Juliette Haigh and Rebecca Scown, unbeaten since coming together early last year, were pushed into second by Britain's Heather Stanning and Helen Glover at the World Cup in Lucerne.

* The men's double of Joseph Sullivan and Nathan Cohen remain in the frame for gold after their world championship win on Lake Karapiro and a win at the recent World Cup against a tough field.

* The lightweight men's double of Peter Taylor and Storm Uru also won last week but their field was missing British favourites and world champions Zac Purchase and Mark Hunter. Hunter competed with another partner and only made the B final.

Best gold hope: Eric Murray and Hamish Bond (men's pair)

Worth a wager: Emma Twigg (women's single), Mahe Drysdale (men's single), Juliette Haigh and Rebecca Scown (women's pair), Joseph Sullivan and Nathan Cohen (men's double), Peter Taylor and Storm Uru (lightweight men's double).

Track & field
Val Adams has dealt with her share of turmoil in the last 18 months with well-documented marriage and coaching difficulties. Her 2010 season was not her best, beaten regularly by Belarussian rival Nadzeya Ostapchuk. However, the pair are favourites to take out gold and silver at London. Given Adams' relish for big competition - she is the reigning Olympic champion and has been world outdoor champion since 2007 - she is a top prospect for back-to-back gold.

There is not much between the two at their peak. Ostapchuk's outdoor record is 21.09m set six years ago, whereas Adams' best is 21.07m set in September 2009. The pair have thrown the nine best distances this year - no-one else in the world has putted more than 20.18m. It might be too early for 16-year-old shot putt sensation Jacko Gill to medal here - though he is already talking about it and has undoubted, gobsmacking talent. But a gold seems a putt too far. Nick Willis is New Zealand's other gold hope as he follows his Olympic dream of emulating Jack Lovelock, Peter Snell and John Walker in the 1500m.

However, this remains a long shot, despite his (evenutual; disqualification-aided) silver in Beijing. Willis could be at the mercy of the Kenyan contingent in deciding the race pace. He faces the Goldilocks principle: if the pace is too hot, say sub 3m 33s, he could be blasted away given his personal best is 3m 32.17s set five years ago; if it is too cold, say plus 3m 38s, he will struggle to fight off the finishes of those who have not been pushed enough on previous laps.

His "just right" window of opportunity might be a mere five seconds to have a realistic shot. He ran 3m 34.16 in Beijing.

Best gold hope: Val Adams (shot put)
Worth a wager: Nick Willis (1500m)

Triathlon
New Zealand has had a love affair with this sport since Hamish Carter and Bevan Docherty heroically fought out gold and silver at Athens in 2004, backed up by Docherty's bronze in Beijing. The chances of gold next year are less rosy if the current world championship series rankings are any gauge. As of last month Docherty was the best-ranked New Zealand male in the world championship series standings at 15th while Andrea Hewitt (3rd) and Kate McIlroy (10th) were the best of the women.

There are mitigating circumstances for a lack of male representation. The key race for Kiwi athletes this year is the London world championship series event in the first week of August which doubles as Triathlon New Zealand's first Olympic qualifier. Most New Zealand hopes will not peak until then.

With a gold missing from his Olympic collection and a proven record in big races, Docherty remains New Zealand's best men's hope. Hewitt, with an overall third in the world last year and an eighth-place at Beijing, is still capable of delivering on her initial promise when she emerged to win the under-23 world championships from relative obscurity in 2005.
Best gold hope: Bevan Docherty
Worth a wager: Andrea Hewitt

Equestrian
It is a case of 'back to the future' for the New Zealand equestrian team at London. The sport has surged again in the last nine months to a point where it offers hope of past glories using the same riders from yesteryear.

At the World Equestrian Games in Kentucky last October, New Zealand picked up a bronze medal and qualified an Olympic eventing spot. That was complemented by 49-year-old Andrew Nicholson's individual bronze.

Mark Todd trumped that in April by becoming, at age 55, the oldest winner in the 62-year history of Badminton. Olympic winners since a 28-year-old Todd won at Los Angeles in 1984 have ranged in age from 28 to 45 - so he has plenty to prove.

Nicholson and Todd - both six-time New Zealand Olympians - shape as the key to Kiwi success. They're likely to be joined by Caroline Powell, who won the Burghley horse trials last September. The final two spots are likely to be contested by 1996 Olympic gold medallist Blyth Tait (50) and up-and-comers Jonathan Paget and Clarke Johnstone.

London's location puts the New Zealand team in a position of strength. Todd and Nicholson already have UK bases and Equestrian Sports New Zealand has set up a separate high performance base, meaning the team will travel just down the road to compete.

The usual logistical problems like transporting the horses by air and quarantine are non-existent - enabling the team to pay greater attention to other preparation details.

Best gold hope: Mark Todd (would you back against him?)
Worth a wager: Three-day eventing team

Cycling
Track and BMX offer the best prospects. BikeNZ is aiming for four medals and has a bold philosophy that, while any Olympic medal takes some getting, high performance does not correlate with bronze. The changes in track events from the last Olympics mean there are now five events for men and women (as opposed to seven versus three).

New Zealand has a talent-laden group that should get medals even with the removal of the individual pursuit where Jesse Sergent and Alison Shanks won silver medals at last year's world championships.

Shane Archbold rates as a top chance. He was ranked best in the world in the six-event omnium at the end of last season (in April) and picked up silver at the world championships. The omnium includes a flying lap against the clock, an elimination race, a scratch race, a 1km time trial, a 4km individual pursuit and a points race.

The men's team pursuit may struggle to improve on their bronze at Beijing if fourth at last year's world championships is a gauge. The prospect of Hayden Roulston returning from the road in Europe offers a boost. A more realistic gold medal chance comes with the introduction of the women's pursuit to the Olympic programme.

New Zealand has had success in that event since 2009 with a silver and two bronze medals at world championships. Pushing to the next level will still be a challenge, however.

Ex-Dane, now-Kiwi Linda Villumsen also shapes as a strong candidate in the road time trial, with bronze at the past two world championships. BMX can crush Olympic dreams faster than most sports when the bikes bolt from the start. So much of the race seems determined by who makes it in one piece to the first corner. But BikeNZ is wise to place some standing on Kiwi chances Marc Willers and Sarah Walker - currently ranked second in the world.

Best gold hope: Sarah Walker
Worth a wager: Shane Archbold

Sailing
New Zealand will be blessed with plenty of competitive crews at the Olympic venue off Weymouth but three stand out as potential gold medallists.

Jo Aleh and Olivia (Polly) Powrie are performing strongly around the world in the women's 470 class. They picked up silver at last year's world championships and won last month's Sail for Gold regatta on the Olympic course. After a spell back home, they race the Olympic test event in the second week of August. Team Jolly, as they are known, shape as strong contenders to take New Zealand's first sailing gold medal in a boat (rather than on a board) since Russell Coutts in the Finn and Rex Sellers and Chris Timms in the Tornado took gold off Los Angeles in 1984.

The other gold medal contenders are strong but still up for debate. Tom Ashley, the defending Olympic boardsailing champion faces a battle with long-time rival Jon-Paul Tobin for the right to repeat his feat.

Whoever gets the nod will challenge for the top podium spot. Tobin has the edge at the moment. He came second at Sail for Gold last month and earned the right as New Zealand's one entrant to the Olympic test regatta.

Ashley knows a thing or two about timing his run and gold medal pressure. The Laser class is the other contender. Andrew Murdoch is the incumbent Olympian, finishing fifth in Beijing. His second placing at Sail for Gold got him the nod over other contenders Mike Bullot, Josh Junior and Andy Maloney to race at the Olympic test event. Murdoch has the advantage for now but no other nation has as much competition in the same class. That bodes well for creating the hunger, fear and desire required when it comes to ruthless Olympic racing.

Best gold hope: Women's 470 (Jo Aleh and Olivia Powrie)
Worth a wager: Men's RS:X (Tom Ashley)