Two tests against India could be a step too far for the history-making Black Caps. Photo / Photosport
Two tests against India could be a step too far for the history-making Black Caps. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
As the Black Caps embark on their final matches of 2021, New Zealand cricket fans may have to get reacquainted with the dejection of defeat.
A two-test series in India is rivalled only by a trip to Australia as cricket's greatest challenge, and much like the tour down underin 2019-2020, this series could be a step too far for the history-making Black Caps.
After a sustained spell of success unmatched in Kiwi cricket history, the Black Caps' 2021 could realistically end with six straight defeats.
A Twenty20 World Cup final defeat to Australia was followed by a 3-0 T20 series defeat to India, and with India having lost just two of their last 39 tests at home, a 2-0 series victory to the hosts is the most likely outcome in the series that starts this afternoon.
That result wouldn't necessarily be a poor reflection on this Black Caps team – in the last 10 years, India have only lost to Australia and England in home tests, and have lost just one test series at home since 2005.
But if the Black Caps truly are a world-beating team in all conditions, worthy of their top-ranked status and a threat to defend their World Test Championship title, then at minimum a fighting display is required – something showing more substance than their 2016 tour, which ended with defeats of 197, 178 and 321 runs.
They're helped for the first test by the absence of some of India's stars, with Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, Rishabh Pant, Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami all missing, and will have confidence facing players who they easily dismissed in New Zealand, and then for good measure toppled in the WTC final in England.
Black Caps will face a tough task in tests against India, despite the home side missing several stars including Virat Kohli. Photo / Photosport
The Kiwi bowlers may especially fancy their chances against an Indian batting lineup that is undermanned. Only two batsmen have played more than 15 tests, and those two - Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane – are not in their best form.
However, India's spin trio of Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel have a combined 470 wickets at an average of 20.97 when playing in home conditions, and that alone could be enough to spearhead an Indian victory.
Additionally, the Black Caps are heading into the Indian cauldron without Devon Conway, Colin de Grandhomme and Trent Boult, and have only three batsmen with experience in Indian test conditions.
To win, those three – Tom Latham, Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor - will need to be at their best, with added help from unexpected places, but it's hard to foresee a New Zealand victory in where they rack up runs and bat India out of the contest.
Instead, an upset victory will likely need to be conjured by the bowlers.
Ajaz Patel will be pivotal in leading a Kiwi spinning contingent that could be a trio – most likely Patel, Will Somerville and Mitchell Santner. They'll need to produce a performance similar to the Indian spinning trio, while Kyle Jamieson must trouble the Indian batsmen as much as he has in Kiwi and English conditions, assuming he gets the nod in what could be a devastatingly difficult selection decision, with likely only two of Jamieson, Tim Southee and Neil Wagner to be selected.
If their task wasn't daunting enough in the present, the weight of history will be back of mind – New Zealand haven't won a test in India since 1988, and have rarely come close since.
Yes, the Black Caps have made a habit of making history in recent years – but to prove they're a team worthy of fear in all conditions, they'll need to finish the year with one of their greatest performances.
