KEY POINTS:
Rotation has become such a dirty word in New Zealand sport it was little surprise Silver Ferns coach Ruth Aitken came under such fire for the rotated team that inexplicably lost the middle of the three tests against England in the recent, wildly fluctuating series.
Today the Ferns take on a much sterner foe, Australia, in the first of two tests across the Tasman and do so with Aitken defending rotation and insisting it will continue. It will be intriguing to see how much, if any, rotation she uses during the series. Some rotation has been forced following injury to captain Julie Seymour and the unavailability of defender Leana de Bruin. But, with the Australians without key players like Sharelle McMahon (knee surgery) and Catherine Cox (ankle ligaments), this is surely the time to trial new blood.
Aitken's public reasoning for the rotation was that there are few tests before the 2010 Commonwealth Games and little to be learned from putting the top seven out consistently. However, the Ferns have not dealt well with rotation. Go back three years. Under Aitken's subtle direction, they had become undisputed world champions and, in 2005, beat the Australians 61-36 in Auckland.
In netball terms, that is a hiding; a real bath - underlining the gulf between the second-best team and the best. There seemed no way back from the psychological blow dealt the Australians. They looked unconvinced they could bridge the gap.
The Ferns had won the preceding test 50-43 in 2005. Then came the Melbourne Commonwealth Games in 2006 and a sound victory over the Australians for the gold medal. In July 2006 was a 52-40 victory in Brisbane.
Enter rotation. Aitken, not unreasonably, tried new combinations with the 2007 world championships in mind. Sound familiar?
On July 25, 2006, the Ferns looked without rhythm and the Australians won 48-38. What also accrued was a new belief and surety about the Australian play and players.
That coincided with the first signs of wear in the Vilimaina Davu-Temepara George-Irene van Dyk axis that had been Aitken's strength since she took over in 2001. George's Energizer Bunny play was countermanded by the speed and athleticism of the van Bertouch sisters, Natalie and Laura, and Davu began to show signs she was in decline.
After that, the Ferns clearly began to lose the mental edge against the Australians. Aitken's record is successful - but not in recent times.
Since 2006 (including the two tests mentioned), the Ferns have played 16 tests for 10 wins and six losses. That includes the 2007 world champs, won by Australia - encompassing matches against `minnows' like Malawi, Wales, Botswana, and even South Africa, dispatched 82-23. Since that 2006 watershed series in Australia, the Ferns have played 11 times against serious opposition (Australia, England, Jamaica) and won five. New Zealand and Australia have met 6 times since 2006 (excluding the watershed series) and the Ferns have won twice. Against England, they have a 2-2 record in the past two years.
Even acknowledging rebuilding, that is not a desired win-loss record. Rotation starts to look less important than winning. When the Ferns have rotated line-ups or had failed experiments like van Dyk at goal attack, there is a strong suggestion they don't operate well with such variables.
Yet Aitken is right - most teams need new blood and methods. But maybe it is more effective, surely, to introduce new blood subtly into a team which wins consistently as opposed to one which stutters when several variables are introduced.
It must also be harder - even acknowledging Aitken's skills - to assess a team's performance if there are many changes in the line-up as opposed to a few.
That's why today's test and the next will likely be watersheds. This year's New Zealand series was shared 1-1, with the second test being that defence-dominated, 38-31 scoreline.
Both have lost senior players; both are rebuilding. Australian coach Norma Plummer and shooter Susan Pratley have said they agree with Aitken's rotation strategy. Well, they would, wouldn't they? Plummer would be happy to see a multi-changing, unsettled New Zealand team. New Zealand can strike back at the Australian juggernaut in this series; loosening their grip on top-of-the-world status as the Australians did to them two years ago.
For that reason, this does not seem like a time for rotation or experiment.
