The transtasman league has a history of close-run finishes with six or sometimes even seven teams in the running for a playoff spot heading into the final couple of rounds. But this year is different.
There is a clear divide between the top five and bottom five teams in the standings, yet the race for playoff spots remains as absorbing as ever.
Only the Firebirds' place in the top four is secure, with the unbeaten Queensland side having sewn up the minor premiership.
You can probably also safely put a tick next to the Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic. The Magic, who have never missed out on the playoffs, are sitting in second position on the ladder with a two-point buffer over the next three teams.
While it is still possible for the Magic to miss out, it would take an extremely unlikely run of results for that to happen, including losing both their final two matches, against the Thunderbirds in Adelaide and the Pulse in Taupo.
So the real battle exists between the Swifts, Vixens and Mystics, who are tied on 14 points.
The Mystics lie in fifth position as they have the weakest goal percentage. But they do have an advantage in the fact that the Vixens and Swifts face each other in the final round, meaning one of those teams is going to miss out on the points from that game.
So the assignment facing the Mystics is a very straightforward one: win both their remaining games against the Canterbury Tactix and Southern Steel and they are through.
That puts the Mystics in the rare position of being in charge of their own destiny. In previous years at this stage of the season the Auckland side were either out of the hunt, or dependent on a fortuitous run of results to secure their place in the top four.
But while they are better placed to make the top four than they have been in previous seasons, there are still some question marks hovering over their form.
Their inconsistency remains the big concern. The Mystics suffered their most demoralising loss of the season on Monday night, falling 53-46 to the Swifts in Sydney. The Mystics were let down by a lack of discipline, composure and court smarts.
Adding to their gloom was the loss of midcourter Grace Rasmussen, who will not play another game this season after injuring her knee in the defeat.
If the Mystics want to prove they are a reformed team this year, they need to produce a confident, composed and clinical display against the two South Island franchises. Like any genuine title contender should.
FOUR INTO THREE
The run home
Magic, 2nd, 16 points
Round 11: Thunderbirds (away)
Round 12: Pulse (home)
Swifts, 3rd, 14 points
Round 11: Steel (away)
Round 12: Vixens (away)
Vixens, 4th, 14 points
Round 11: Pulse (home)
Round 12: Swifts (home)
Mystics, 5th, 14 points
Round 11: Tactix (home)
Round 12: Steel (away)
Netball: Mystics have much to prove
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