The Northern Mystics have at last discovered their mojo and are on a roll, with the utmost confidence in their game plan, but the Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic have much to lose as well as much to gain as they go into this Sunday's transtasman netball league clash
What the Mystics have going for them
Momentum
The key factor in the Mystics' favour heading in to this match is momentum.
The camp are all smiles this week and their confidence is at an all-time high after a series of breakthroughs over the past couple of weeks.
They qualified for the finals for the first time and then convincingly beat one of the pre-season favourites, the NSW Swifts, on opposition soil.
Captain Temepara George believes the "penny has dropped" for the Mystics. They have learned possession is key and have total confidence in their game plan.
Magic, however, must pick themselves up after a heavy loss to the Firebirds in the major semifinal.
Some may argue momentum is just a sporting myth, a psychological factor that has no impact on the outcome of games, but Mystics coach Debbie Fuller believes it can't be discounted.
"Netball is all about momentum. It's like a thunderbolt, you never know when you're going to get it. Luckily for us it has come at the right time of the season."
The X-factor
Mystics coach Debbie Fuller has raved all season about her side's X-factor and attacking flair. But this had become a nice metaphor for their infuriating habit of pushing the 50-50 balls.
Their strange compulsion to opt to throw the flashy passes when a more conservative route would be more effective has seen them rack up the highest turnover count in the league.
But over the past couple of weeks the Mystics appear to have turned a corner. They have found the right balance between playing their natural attacking game, whilst still treasuring possession.
Last weekend against the Swifts, the Mystics had just 12 turnovers compared with their 21.4 average for the season.
George said earlier her side were guilty of opting for the low percentage plays, but they had learned to rein it in.
"We can still play at speed and let the ball go, but if it's a 50-50 ball then it's not on. It's about keeping our shooters calm and making sure we're not putting them under any extra pressure."
While the Mystics are more measured on attack, they still have the X-factor that makes them unpredictable on attack and hard for the opposing defence to read.
Scoring power
Notwithstanding their turnover count, the Mystics boast one of the best attacking records in the competition.
At the end of the regular season, they had scored 684 goals - the second-highest tally in the competition behind the league-leading Queensland Firebirds.
This is not surprising when their team boasts a shooting attack of Cathrine Latu and Maria Tutaia, both of whom are confident in going to the post.
But what makes the high ranking so impressive is that the Mystics have recorded the second-lowest number of misses for the year.
The four shooters for the Mystics this season - Latu, Tutaia, Megan Dehn and Bailey Mes - have missed on only 118 occasions between them.
Only the Magic shooters have missed fewer shots, registering 116.
The Mystics are the only team that can match the Magic for accuracy.
This is a concern for the Waikato side - in several close matches this season it has been the Magic's superior accuracy on-goal that has seen them scrape through for a win.
But given the Mystics have the most accurate shooter in the league in Latu, who has a strike rate of 93 per cent, the Magic need to dominate possession to win through to the grand final.
Anna Scarlett
The Mystics have an aura of unpredictability on defence as well, courtesy of one player - Anna Scarlett.
As Silver Ferns coach Ruth Aitken once described her - "She's ... well, just random."
Her style may be unorthodox, but it is certainly effective.
She sits in the top three in the league for intercepts, top three for deflections and she leads the competition in blocked shots with 14 - nine more than any other player.
And with a knack for pulling off the match-winning turnover, Scarlett is certain to play a key role in this game.
History beckons
It has already been a season of firsts for the Mystics, but now the ultimate "first" beckons.
No side that has finished in fourth place after the regular season has gone on to win the competition - and the Mystics have their sights set on achieving this piece of history.
But they can approach this game as though they have nothing to lose.
They have already exceeded most of the netball public's expectations in making it through to the preliminary final and the only pressure on them is what they have put on themselves.
What the Magic have going for them
More than one title at stake
The chance to take on the Firebirds for a shot at the transtasman league final is undoubtedly the main motivator for both sides.
But the Magic have a little extra carrot being dangled in front of them.
Over the past three seasons the Waikato/Bay of Plenty side have hung their hat on being the best performing New Zealand team. But they stand to lose their billing as top dogs on this side of the Tasman if they are toppled by the Mystics on Sunday.
While the Magic have been unable to bring home the title in their past three finals campaigns, they have at least been able to console themselves in the fact that they have been where no other New Zealand team has been before - an ANZ Championship grand final.
And the Magic will be desperate to keep it that way.
History
The Magic are the only team in the competition to have played in all four finals campaigns.
While their track record is impressive, the big prize remains elusive. This is beginning to become a glaring blip on their record. Winning the competition is now essential, otherwise four years of hard work could possibly amount to nothing. Having been so close on a number of occasions and fallen short, the desire in the Magic camp is huge.
The 'big three'
While the Mystics have more Silver Ferns in their line-up, the Magic have Netball New Zealand's holy trinity.
In Irene van Dyk, Casey Williams and captain Laura Langman, the Magic boast the three best-performing Silver Ferns in each third of the court.
They will want to reinforce their position as New Zealand's top talent by outplaying their fellow Silver Ferns on Sunday night.
Magic's last chance?
One down side of having the backbone of the Silver Ferns' starting line-up in your roster is that every season their stars are the target of big-money offers from other franchises.
In the ever-increasing professional age it is becoming harder and harder for the Magic to keep their team together. After this year's world championships Langman and Williams could be interested in a new challenge and could be convinced to move away from the franchise they have played all their netball for. Particularly when the likes of the Steel can offer them up to three times what they would get at the Magic.
Then there are the questions over how long van Dyk plans to stick around in the game. The veteran shooter, who at 38 remains at the top of her game - last week's quiet performance against Laura Geitz aside - has previously said she has no immediate plans to retire. But if the Ferns win the world title in Singapore in July it may convince the star shooter to step down on a high.
Given the uncertainty over how long this team can stay together, many believe this could be the real last chance the Magic will have to win the transtasman league for quite some time.
Revenge
For the Magic there is a hint of grudge to Sunday's game after the Mystics pulled off an unlikely one-goal win in their last meeting back in round five.
By rights the Magic probably should have won that game in Hamilton. The Waikato side led for virtually the entire game, until the Mystics put on a late charge in the final minutes, taking the lead for the first time with only five seconds left on the clock. Just to rub salt in to the wound, it was the Magic's former star, Maria Tutaia, who slotted the long-range bomb to secure that win.
