For a sport that usually requires acute timing and well-planned race tactics, the triathlon world championships this weekend are shaping to be a messy dogfight.
When the starter's gun fires in Gamagori, Japan, for the elite men's and women's races on Sunday, it will signal a helter-skelter start that should be replicated at the finishing line.
The Gamagori course is flat, with a tight and technical multi-lap bike and fast, flat multi-lap run, unlike the gut-busting hilly circuit at Athens where New Zealander's Hamish Carter and Bevan Docherty completed a remarkable gold-silver double in 2004.
Gamagori literally provides a level playing field, making the race a lottery at the finish with less chance of a group breaking from the pack, Carter claims.
"I think the race will be full of dark horses," Carter said when asked whether Gamagori would see a rank outsider take triathlon's top prize this year. "It can happen here. Someone will have a blinder for no reason and you can't pick it."
"Triathlon without a hilly bike [ride] just becomes far more of a lottery because anything can happen.
"I guess you'll get a handle on it quickly when people get to the front and you see what they can do. It will be a big pack for guys."
Carter, 34, will race at his last world championships after a stunning 12-year career which was capped in spectacular fashion in Greece. He heads the men's charge with 2004 world champion Docherty and former junior world champion Terenzo Bozzone.
Seasoned athletes Kris Gemmell, Shane Reed and Nathan Richmond complete the elite men's team while Samantha Warriner, fresh from her second International Triathlon Union world cup win last month, leads a four-strong women's team.
Besides world championship glory, the New Zealand contingent will be hunting automatic qualifying spots for the Commonwealth Games in March. The first person in the top 20, or two athletes in the top five over the 1500m swim, 40km cycle and 10km run, will qualify.
Each country gets three spots in the men's and women's race in Melbourne. If the qualifying spots are not filled in Japan, they may be used at a Commonwealth Games test triathlon in October in Melbourne.
New Zealand high-performance manager Stephen Farrell said there were at least 15 triathletes who could win on Sunday in both the men's and women's races.
Sunday offers Carter his last chance to claim the title that has eluded him.
He has had seven top-10 finishes at world championships, a second at Perth in 1997, third in Manchester in 1993, fourth in Lausanne in 1998 and fifth in Perth in 2003 and Queenstown in 2003 among them.
But Carter, who enters the race in top form after beating world No 1 Hunter Kemper to win the Chicago triathlon two weeks ago, was not putting too much pressure on himself. "For my last worlds I'm looking forward after a long career and I really want to enjoy my race."
While he starts to wind down his career, the goal to secure a Commonwealth Games ticket is still burning. After his Chicago triumph, Carter said he considered not trialing for the Games team if he failed to get an automatic spot. The extra qualifying race in Melbourne on October 15 would stretch his year too far out, he said.
But Carter yesterday re-affirmed his desire to front in Melbourne if he grabs a qualifying place.
"I'll definitely go. There's no doubt I really want to. The Commonwealths would be brilliant, but all of that stuff is not an issue. I'm here to race."
- NZPA
Multisports: Carter goes flat out for worlds
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