Statistics are on Lowndes' side as he's the only repeat winner of the event over the past 10 races in Sydney.
As it's a street circuit, numbers rarely come into play and the racing will be hot and heavy.
"Sydney is always a tough weekend and Homebush is a tough track," said Lowndes this week.
"We'll be trying to fight to get back up to second in the championship and there are 300 points up for grabs, but we need to find 98 points.
Jaime Whincup. Photo / EDGE PHOTOGRAPHICS
"There's no doubt Frosty will be in for a fight to retain second and it will be a great battle.
"I enjoy the track and I have some great memories there, so hopefully that's going to work well for me this weekend."
As with any street track, drivers and cars will have to contend with kerb bashing, surface changes, road crown and undulations.
Engineers and mechanics struggle to get a car to work at its best for a full lap and then there's the weather. Rain is forecast, so Winterbottom and his crew will have their work cut out if they want to hold off Lowndes and his boys.
Winterbottom has finished runner-up only once in the championship, in 2008. But he has always been a contender and has never finished outside the top five in the final reckoning since joining FPR in 2006.
"It's good to be going to Sydney because it's a home race but I'm not sure how we'll go," said Winterbottom.
"We've struggled on street circuits this year a bit, so now is the time to try a few different things to see if we can improve it."
The three weekend races are worth 300 points, which means leading Kiwi driver Shane van Gisbergen, who is fourth on the table, 39 points behind Lowndes, could easily finish his championship inside the top three.
The planets would have to be seriously aligned for his fellow Kiwis Scott McLaughlin (fifth) and Fabian Coulthard (sixth) to get into the top three.
"Street tracks are always hard and anything can happen," said Van Gisbergen. "Our car's been good on the hard tyres all season, so we should go all right.
"Craig will be hard to beat, though - we'll just have to see how we get on."
Van Gisbergen could improve on his best championship finish - fourth in 2011 with Stone Brothers Racing - with a good result this weekend. He is the form man on the streets of Sydney Olympic Park.
V8 Supercars points with one round to go
1. Jamie Whincup 3094
2. Mark Winterbottom 2642
3. Craig Lowndes 2547
4. Shane van Gisbergen 2508
5. Scott McLaughlin 2295
6. Fabian Coulthard 2280
7. Chaz Mostert 2273
8. James Courtney 2265