The 2013 GP3 champion replaced Vettel at Red Bull after just one season with Toro Rosso and outscored teammate Ricciardo last year.
However, it is thought Red Bull bosses are keen to promote teenage sensation Max Verstappen to the senior team as soon as possible as the Dutchman continues to enhance his reputation as one of the hottest properties in F1.
"The reality of the situation is that at the end of this season Red Bull will promote Max Verstappen to the team and the seat he is likely to occupy is Kvyat's," Allen wrote.
"That was already clear at the start of the season. Sources suggested that decision had been made."
Allen reported there is still plenty of time for Kvyat to salvage his reputation this season, but believes Ricciardo has proven himself the top dog at Red Bull.
"Ricciardo is under contract to Red Bull and although he would be the first choice to replace (Kimi) Raikkonen at Ferrari, the previous history with Vettel means that such a move by Ferrari would destabilise their number one driver and they do not want to do that," he wrote.
"Kvyat is not stupid, he's seen the writing on the wall, but he is emotional.
"Emotions got the better of him yesterday, trying to make a big statement for Mother Russia in front of the nation's most important figures and his family.
"There will be quite a bit of movement at the end of this season with question marks over the continued participation of Raikkonen, Massa and Button.
"Yesterday did not cost Kvyat his seat - that had almost certainly already gone. It is unlikely to have cost him a future in the sport, as he has plenty of opportunities to show what he can do between now and driver decision time around August/September.
"He can still save his career, but he has to learn from what happened yesterday and show he has learned, while not losing his aggressive edge. That's his tightrope walk for the rest of the season.
"It's not over yet for Daniil Kvyat."
The 22-year-old was named the worst driver of the Russian Grand Prix on the Skysports.com 2016 Russian Grand Prix driver ratings after twice making contact with Vettel.
Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene said: "Once is acceptable but to hit him twice is unacceptable".
Kvyat was given a rank of 4/10.