His catastrophic decline in form since joining Red Bull Racing has been dramatic enough to cause whiplash.
Barely 12 days ago, after a summer of hope and hype, Lawson was preparing tostart the Australian Grand Prix race weekend, as the first Kiwi to drive for a top-tier F1 team in more than half a century.
Lawson has been near the bottom of the timesheets for every free practice, qualifying and race he’s taken part in as Max Verstappen’s teammate.
Liam Lawson (left) with red Bull teammate Max Verstappen at the Chinese Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull Content Pool
Even his most optimistic supporters must struggle to see plausible green shoots of improvement after he trailed home at Sunday’s Chinese Grand Prix 16th on the road, before being promoted to 12th after three disqualifications and a penalty for four drivers ahead.
There’s a case to be made about how difficult the Red Bull Racing RB21 is to drive: how it’s hard to keep the car’s tyres in the right operating window. How the car is tailormade for the curious needs of four-time champ Verstappen. And how Lawson is suffering because of his lack of experience, having made only 11 F1 starts before this season.
Talking to his race engineer on the team radio in Shanghai, the Kiwi said: “I can’t turn the car at all.”
But nuances like that are lost on the majority of people following the sport, especially those generating or consuming the endless hate against Lawson on social media.
The narrative taking hold is that Lawson is choking and needs to be replaced.
Sadly, that characterisation appears to be coming from some inside Lawson’s Red Bull Racing team, who are briefing journalists that Lawson might get demoted before the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6, or booted out of F1 completely.
The octogenarian Marko seems to revel in his own ruthlessness. Unsurprisingly, he’s been the most vocal within the Red Bull camp calling for Lawson to improve, or else.
It’s worth remembering that Lawson benefited from Red Bull’s cut-throat approach to driver selection to get his current job in the first place.
His promotion to the junior RB team, then Red Bull Racing, ended Daniel Ricciardo’s career, and that of Sergio Perez.
When Sky Sports F1 correspondent Ted Kravitz asked Red Bull team boss Christian Horner why they’d paid Perez to leave (rumoured to be in excess of US$20 million or $35m) to make space for Lawson and hadn’t seen any improvement, Horner didn’t have an easy answer.
Making things more difficult for Lawson is the performance of Verstappen in the same car, and Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli. The Italian 18-year-old benefited from a lot more testing than Lawson, but has turned in two tidy race weekends so far, while sharing the pressure of driving for a top team.
Red Bull mechanics get to work on Liam Lawson's car during the Chinese Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull Content Pool
Typically, Lawson hasn’t sought to blame anyone for his struggles and has been incredibly realistic about the situation in which he finds himself.
Red Bull are said to be meeting this week to decide his future.
There are three likely paths from here for Lawson.
The best-case scenario is that he’s kept in the Red Bull for the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka, a track he raced impressively at in Formula One in 2023 and knows well from his days fighting for the Super Formula championship. He turns in a solid weekend, and the spotlight will move elsewhere. Formula One is like that.
Another scenario would see Red Bull cave in to the tiresome #JusticeForYuki crowd on social media, put Yuki Tsunoda into the senior team and demote Lawson back to RB. Lawson’s performance ceiling is likely higher than Tsunoda’s, but the Japanese driver has five seasons of F1 experience to fall back on at least.
And, ironically, the RB appears far easier to drive in 2025 than the Red Bull, a trait observed by Verstappen over the Chinese Grand Prix weekend.
A move back to RB might sustain Lawson in Formula One but his chances of someday driving for a top team again would likely be unlikely, as Red Bull would view him as damaged goods, just like it did with Pierre Gasly.
The third option – and the worst outcome for Lawson – would be for Red Bull to opt for a driver outside its family, like Argentine Franco Colapinto, casting Lawson from the sport altogether.
Then he’d be the modern-day equivalent of Luca Badoer, who was dropped from Ferrari after only two races as Kimi Raikkonen’s teammate in 2009 and never raced in F1 again.
This is all brutal to watch and although Lawson would never look for sympathy, you can’t help but feel for him. One of the world’s most glamorous and intoxicating sports can also be the cruellest.
