Liam Lawson: Inside the Red Bull civil war holding Kiwi hopeful back from Formula One opportunity

Liam Lawson at the Australian Grand Prix. Photo / Getty

New Zealand motor racing driver Liam Lawson’s aspirations of securing a Formula 1 seat for 2025 are dependent on a power struggle between two of the biggest names in the business, according to a top analyst of the sport.

Lawson is currently serving as a reserve driver for Red Bull Racing and Racing Bulls Formula One Team (which is supposed to function as the junior team to Red Bull Racing, even if it hasn’t produced a driver for the senior team since 2019).

The BBC’s F1 correspondent Andrew Benson said Lawson is preferred for promotion through Red Bull’s ranks by the team’s motorsport adviser Helmut Marko for a seat at RB, but his Australian rival Daniel Ricciardo is favoured by team principal Christian Horner.

“Marko, who would probably like to promote Lawson, has lost power and influence in the internal civil war at Red Bull that was laid bare by the allegations of sexual harassment and coercive, controlling behaviour made against Horner by a female employee, which Horner denies, and which an internal investigation dismissed.

“Ricciardo is protected by team principal Christian Horner ... and is safe for now from being replaced by Lawson.”

While Ricciardo has at times struggled on track this year, no driver on the 20-strong grid commands the same marketability as the Australian, as a star of Netflix’s Drive to Survive documentary series.

Liam Lawson has impressed in his F1 starts to date. Photo / Getty Images

But Benson said the Kiwi could benefit from Yuki Tsunoda’s ambitions to move to another team.

“It is not hard to imagine a Lawson and Ricciardo line-up at RB in 2025, though, if Horner does not shift his stance and Tsunoda moves elsewhere,” he said in a question and answer session following last weekend’s Monaco Grand Prix.

“The impression from the outside is that there is absolutely nothing Tsunoda can do to be considered for a seat at Red Bull - the bosses simply do not rate him highly enough. This is why Tsunoda is looking outside Red Bull for job opportunities, even though he owes his seat in F1 to Honda, their engine partner.”

While it was initially theorised that Tsunoda would make way for Lawson at some point in 2024, the 24-year-old currently sits 10th in the championship, with 14 more points than Ricciardo.

Politics have also played a part in Tsunoda’s retention, thanks to his links to Honda, who will supply Red Bull’s engines through until the end of 2025.

With his path to a Red Bull seat seemingly blocked, the Japanese driver was likely to aiming for a move to Williams, Haas or Alpine, said Benson.

“It seems he has a decent chance of landing one of those seats in this summer’s driver musical chairs.

“As for his performance at RB, yes, he is beating Daniel Ricciardo regularly and has put in some impressive drives this year. But this is raising more questions about Ricciardo than it is changing minds at Red Bull about Tsunoda.”

Lawson has impressed in his handful of grand prix starts. When Ricciardo withdrew from the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix, Lawson took the wheel for five races straight races, going on to secure what was at the time the team’s best result of the season in Singapore when knocking world champion Max Verstappen out of qualifying, before finishing ninth.