Formula 1: Liam Lawson’s Red Bull hopes take a hit - what we learned from Las Vegas Grand Prix - Alex Powell

THREE KEY FACTS

• Liam Lawson finished 16th at Formula One’s Las Vegas Grand Prix
• The Kiwi was the last-placed of Red Bull’s four cars
• Only two race weekends remain as drivers aim to impress Red Bull bosses

When Red Bull do make their decision as to who partners newly-crowned world champion Max Verstappen next year, Kiwi motorsport fans should hope the Las Vegas Grand Prix doesn’t hold too much weight.

While Liam Lawson has impressed on his return to Formula One in Texas, Nevada wasn’t as kind. A 16th placed finish aside, Lawson struggled for pace all weekend on a track that he’d never driven before, and where the cold conditions made things even worse.

With two Grands Prix and a sprint race still to come this season, the Kiwi will hope for better in his bid to stay on the grid next year.

Here’s what we learned from the Las Vegas Grand Prix:

Race for the Red Bull seat

All things considered, that was as poor a result as Lawson could have asked for in the grand scheme of things.

Not only was he the only Red Bull driver not to score points, but he also crossed the line behind Williams’ Franco Colapinto.

It is now widely understood that Colapinto has joined Lawson, Sergio Perez and Yuki Tsunoda in the race to partner Verstappen next year.

And, as we saw when Perez replaced Alex Albon in 2021, recency bias plays a huge part in Formula One.

Lawson will need to bounce back, fast, in Qatar next week.

Strategy stitch-up

While, yes, the result is nothing to write home about, it would be very harsh to lay the blame at the Kiwi’s feet.

All season, RB have struggled with their strategies. In Azerbaijan, race engineer Pierre Hamelin even apologised to Daniel Ricciardo on behalf of the team.

In Las Vegas, as the cold threw predetermined strategy out the window, RB again appeared to play down the wrong lines. In Austin, the team’s strategy of starting Lawson on hard tyres, go long, and finish on mediums worked a treat – going from 19th to ninth on his return.

This time around, though, he started on mediums – while Perez made perfect use of the hard start to score his first points in three races. That left Lawson finishing on the slower tyre, from further back on the grid, a fact made even worse when strategies were forced to change from one-stop into two-stops.

Yes, Red Bull and RB are separate teams (despite the similar names), so there isn’t any conferencing over these strategies.

But why did Lawson’s team look to fix something that wasn’t broken?

Qualifying performances

While Perez may have swung things back in his favour in the Grand Prix, his efforts in qualifying can’t be overlooked.

Again, the 34-year-old didn’t make it out of the first qualifying session, and was beaten by both Lawson and Tsunoda. In fact, Lawson’s qualifying position of 15th should have been higher.

He was on track to better his first time, but was called back into the pits before he could have another attempt to end the session, before a Colapinto crash put paid to those hopes.

Despite Verstappen sealing the driver’s title, Red Bull won’t win the constructors to go with it.

Red Bull only having one car starting at the front of the grid, a world champion one at that, will only put more pressure on Perez.

Perez’s chance to finish strong

If Perez is to finish 2024 in a way that guarantees him a spot in 2025, the cards are falling in his favour.

While taking into consideration that coincidence is not causation, Perez has an exceptional record in countries with poor human rights.

Of his six wins in Formula One, five have come in Azerbaijan (twice), Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Bahrain. Taking that into account, the final two Grands Prix of the season just happen to be in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

However, his best results across both of those races were fourth in Qatar and third in Abu Dhabi.

But given his win in Bahrain in 2020 was enough to convince Red Bull team principal Christian Horner to bring him on board, the right result at the right time would do wonders for Perez.

Is Colapinto a threat?

When Williams’ approach to Red Bull for Lawson was rejected earlier this year, the team found a very capable replacement in Colapinto.

While the sacked Logan Sargeant scored no points from his 15 races in the same car, Colapinto has scored five from seven.

That form has seen his name thrown into the mix with Lawson, Perez and Tsunoda as an option for Red Bull - given Colapinto also brings in sponsorship from South America.

Given Williams already have Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz on their books for next season, Colapinto is in the same boat as Lawson in trying to prove his worth to Red Bull to win a vacant seat.

However, he’s also caused two crashes - in Brazil earlier this month, and again in qualifying for Las Vegas.

Commentator Martin Brundle outright claimed Colapinto will be on the grid next season in “a competitive car”, whether that means the Red Bull or not is still to be seen.