Racing Bulls teammate Yuki Tsunoda will start one place higher than Lawson, after he finished with a time of 1m 23.419s as the final car to be eliminated in session two.
“When you have two cars together like that, it means you’ve got most of it out of it,” said Lawson after qualifying.
“A perfect lap would have gotten us through, the margins are so close at the moment.
“I don’t think we quite had the speed [to match] Alpine and Haas today, they’re a bit too far down the road.
“We’re optimistic, we need to make something happen. We’re behind in points, we’ll give it our best shot.”
Tellingly for both drivers, Red Bull senior stablemate Sergio Perez reached the third and final qualifying session, with a best time of 1m 23.264s to start 10th on the grid.
Red Bull have reportedly made the call to end Perez’s time with the team after the Grand Prix, with Lawson the frontrunner to replace him.
However, with recency bias playing a huge part in F1’s driver market, the Kiwi won’t rest on his laurels until the chequered flag on Monday morning (NZT).
Starting outside of the top 10, though, will allow Lawson to potentially make use of the same strategy that saw him finish ninth after starting 19th at the US Grand Prix in Austin, where he went long on his first set of hard tyres, before finishing on the faster medium compound.
As they look to close out a first constructors championship title since 1998, McLaren locked out the front row, as Lando Norris took pole position while Oscar Piastri will start second.
Their closest challenger Ferrari has Carlos Sainz starting third, and Charles Leclerc at 19th, thanks to a 10-place grid penalty for an engine change. McLaren hold a 21-point advantage over Ferrari heading into the final race of the season.
Lawson and Tsunoda will try to push Racing Bulls higher than eighth.
The two Red Bull juniors have been battling to see their side finish sixth in the championship, but trail Alpine by 13 points. Haas split sixth and eighth with 54 points, three fewer than Alpine and eight more than Racing Bulls.
Haas have the best chance for points in Abu Dhabi, as Nico Hulkenberg qualified fourth but has since been hit with a penalty that drops him to seventh, with teammate Kevin Magnussen in 14th.
Alpine have Pierre Gasly in fifth, as teammate Jack Doohan will start 17th, despite qualifying last, with other drivers penalised.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix starting grid
1. Lando Norris (McLaren)
2. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
3. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)
4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
5. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
6. George Russell (Mercedes)
7. Nico Hulkenberg (Haas) - PENALTY
8. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
9. Valterri Bottas (Sauber)
10. Sergio Perez (Red Bull)
11. Yuki Tsunoda (Racing Bulls)
12. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
13. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
14. Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
15. Zhou Guanyu (Sauber)
16. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
17. Jack Doohan (Alpine)
18. Alex Albon (Williams) - PENALTY
19. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - PENALTY
20. Franco Colapinto - PENALTY
Alex Powell is an Online Sports Editor for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016, and previously worked for both Newshub and 1News.