Michael Brown: Big Three on track for World Cup battle

Sonny Bill Williams training with the Kiwis. Photo / Getty Images

If the Kiwis are to win the World Cup in the coming weeks, they will have to do it the hard way.

They should emerge from their pool as top qualifiers reasonably comfortably, getting through Samoa, France and Papua New Guinea, but life will get distinctly more difficult after that.

They will probably meet Tonga in the quarter-finals, England in the semifinals and, all going well, Australia in the final.

If the Kiwis want to build momentum during the tournament, as they often talk about, that run of fixtures ought to do it. They will be worthy champions if they can defend the title they won in 2008 and it might even be an advantage to have a tough run.

Compare that to Australia's route to the final, which appears significantly easier. Assuming they win their group against England, Ireland and Fiji, they will play the winner of Group D (USA, Cook Islands, Wales) in the quarter-finals before a possible match-up with Samoa or Fiji in the semis.

Heaven forbid should England somehow beat Australia in tomorrow morning's (NZT) tournament opener - and Australia have some history of dropping opening games - because it would then pitch the Kiwis and Kangaroos into a tense semifinal at London's Wembley Stadium.

Only three teams have ever won the league World Cup across the tournament's 60-year history and only one of those three will win it this time, too. It's a sad picture - at least rugby has had four in half the time - and illustrates the lack of worldliness to the World Cup.

But this year's instalment promises to be the best since it became more global in 1995, when it went to 10 teams instead of four or five. Last weekend's series of bizarre results only serves to illustrate this.

England's 15-14 defeat to Italy, ranked 13th of the 14 teams at the World Cup, is like Fiji tipping over England at Twickenham in rugby. Actually, it's more notable than that given the Italian national body was established as recently as 2006 and only last year they were beaten by those heavyweights of European league, Russia and Serbia.

Add in wins for the US over France and Scotland over Papua New Guinea and there could be a few intriguing results over the next five weeks.

"There are so many of the NRL guys playing that the competition will throw up a boilover here or there," Australia coach Tim Sheens said this week. "Whether or not it's against the big three will be interesting."

Tonga loom as the team outside The Big Three who can make the biggest impression. They have some big boys and a dangerous outside backs combination that will surely see them go wide - Konrad Hurrell, Jorge Tafua, Daniel Tupou, Glen Fisiiahi and Siuatonga Likiliki.

They are also a lot more settled than a Samoan side in some disarray and gave a glimpse of their talent with a 36-4 demolition of Samoa this year.

For all that, it is defence and quality in crucial positions of hooker, halves and fullback that will decide this tournament. And that's where The Big Three stand out.