Peter Williams: Rich, quick club sports the way of the future

There were no sports subjects discussed at the Auckland Writers and Readers Festival last weekend. But one thought-provoking forum could have developed a sporting tangent - what will happen in the world in the next 100 years?

American academic George Friedman has written a book on the topic and his views on the future enjoyed a lot of media space this week. Freidman maintains that to forecast the future, we must pay heed to the past and use history to our advantage.

In 1909, sport was mostly the domain of the rich, upper class male. That subset of society had the time and money for such indulgence.

As with today, sport involved a ball, a race or a target. Women just watched. The Olympics were new and struggling for relevance, working hard to attract the best competitors in their limited range of games.

As the last 100 years evolved, sport increasingly included women, the poor and lower classes and athletes from underdeveloped countries; a huge public appreciation for sport developed, especially through media; elite competition became professional, often highly paid; and drugs enhanced performance.

There have also been new activities invented. A hundred years ago, who would have envisaged triathlon, beach volleyball, windsurfing or Twenty20 cricket?

So what will be the themes for sport in the future? I think two will emerge: less international, i.e. country versus country competition and events will be more compact.

The best practitioners of a sport will want to play with and against each other as often as possible. Football's Champions League is a blueprint. The cream of the game's talent competing with a chance to win every season is irresistible for both the talent and business promoting them. For players like Didier Drogba, Dimitar Berbatov and Ryan Giggs, winning a World Cup is an impossible dream because their respective countries just aren't good enough. But they can make a fortune plying their trade for Chelsea or Manchester United and have regular chances to win important titles.

In the next 100 years, that model will be emulated across all codes. The world's best basketballers, baseballers and golfers are in the United States now. The best tennis tournaments and cycle races are in Europe.

But this is a major threat to New Zealand. Already All Black tests between World Cups are devalued. Soon all our best players will join high achievers from all other parts of the rugby world and take up lucrative deals in Europe.

The Heineken Cup, or whatever it will be in future incarnations, is poised to become the world's most important rugby competition.

The future of cricket is already there for us to see in the IPL. Jacob Oram provided the unpalatable truth three weeks ago and Chris Gayle has only confirmed it since.

Broadband technology means elite sport will be cheaper and more accessible everywhere than now but as attention spans decrease, contests will have a fixed duration, seldom more than two hours, preferably shorter. Tennis saw the future with tiebreakers. Golf is under threat as baby boomers die off and needs to adapt quickly.

Despite the best efforts of WADA, the battle against performance-enhancing drugs won't be won until dopers start to die regularly. Until then, we can treat records with considerable scepticism.

There'll be new sports too. They may involve a ball but probably not much body contact. They'll either use natural elements or be aesthetically pleasing. Mountain biking and ice dancing are just the start.

If you're over 50, you probably don't like the thought of all this. But then 100 years ago, who wanted one day cricket, Bulgarians in English football and women running marathons?