Gregor Paul: The best candidate to be All Blacks’ ‘unlikely’ World Cup hero

All Blacks David Havili (left), Richie Mo'unga and Anton Lienert-Brown during the NZ national anthem. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

OPINION:

World Cups have a history, a habit even, of thrusting peripheral players into central roles and making unlikely heroes.

It’s nigh on impossible to predict who might see their future dramatically change in the next few months, but David Havili, simply on account of being one of only two second-five specialists in the 33-man squad, has to be a candidate.

The 28-year-old hasn’t played a test yet in 2023 but sneaked into the All Blacks World Cup squad on the strength of his contribution between 2020 and 2022, when for much of that period he was the preferred No 12.

It was a position he lost in the second Bledisloe Cup test of last year when injury ruled him out, and in his place came Jordie Barrett, who delivered such a commanding and direct performance as to immediately change the pecking order.

Barrett was transformational for the All Blacks. He straightened the attack and brought a level of confrontation that the role demands.

But so too did he bring the scope of vision that head coach Ian Foster had been hoping for in his No 12, delivering a neat array of tactical kicks, some clever short passes and most importantly, a strong voice to guide the other play-makers.

As much as it was transformational for the All Blacks, so too was it a major turning point for Havili, as Barrett laid down a template for what a world class No 12 needs to do to have real influence in the international game.

Havili, who is gifted and admirably committed, was never quite able to piece everything together when he played in that period.

He had all the component parts – which is why he was the preferred starter – but the composition of his game never quite gave the All Blacks the balance of brain and brawn they were looking for.

Siya Kolisi(C) of South Africa and David Havili of New Zealand during the South Africa Springboks v New Zealand All Blacks match at Ellis Park, Johannesburg on August 13. Photo / Christiaan Kotze / www.photosport.nz

But now that Havili, who is back in the squad having missed the Rugby Championship with a hamstring injury, has seen how Barrett strings together the various parts of his game, it’s provided him with a clear focus on what elements of his own game he needs to grow and focus on to be more effective at No 12.

Essentially, what’s happened in the last nine months is that Havili has gone from being teacher to student.

“It has been awesome to see him going so well in that jersey,” Havili said of Barrett from the team’s training base in Teddington on the South-West fringes of London.

“Being able to see him execute like he does under pressure. That is something I have been working on closely with him, and looking at his short kicking game, the subtle touches he does and the way he takes the pressure of our 10s to make sure they are controlling the game.”

Having not played any test football all year, it’s almost certain that Havili will feature at Twickenham in some capacity – most likely off the bench – because he’s a more valuable chess piece in the context of this World Cup than may be realised.

Barrett has made the position his own, but the midfield is an area of such physical confrontation, that it’s going to take an enormous amount of luck to get him through the tournament without any injuries.

Fate typically has a big hand in determining who is ultimately crowned champions as teams rarely, if ever, reach the knock-out stages with all their preferred match-day 23 fit and available.

Being able to cope with injuries is a big part of the World Cup challenge and the All Blacks need Havili to be able to step into the breach should he be required to do so, and largely deliver the same direct, physical sort of rugby as Barrett.

So too will they need him to combine direct running with a range of softer, clever touches and ensure that the All Blacks attack game flows.

What’s critical for the All Blacks in their quest to win a fourth World Cup, is that they can play precisely the way they want regardless of who is fit and available.

One injury can’t be a reason to remodel their attack or radically amend the style of rugby they play and so there is a degree of pressure on Havili to prove at Twickenham that he can facilitate the style of rugby the All Blacks have been playing this year.

There is a possibility that should Barrett be ruled out for any reason, that the All Blacks may select Anton Lienert-Brown as the alternative, but his unorthodox skill-set seems better suited to being introduced off the bench, particularly when there may be more space opening up later in the game.

Havili has the greater similarities to Barrett and while he wouldn’t quite be a like-for-like alternative, he would be close – or at least closer than Lienert-Brown.