Barrett is 32 now, which means he’ll be 36 by the next World Cup and the odds of anyone that age being able to play well enough to merit All Blacks selection are slim. Photo / Getty Images
OPINION
The great players end up having great careers largely because they know how to reinvent themselves and adapt to the ever-changing world of international rugby.
Legs get older and slower, but minds typically get quicker and sharper, and the best players have known how to use the latter tocompensate for the former and make their experience tell.
With Beauden Barrett on the cusp of signing a four-year extension to stay in New Zealand until 2027, we will soon enough find out if he can join the pantheon of re-inventors which includes Richie McCaw, Sir Michael Jones, Kieran Read and Ma’a Nonu, and continue to be an integral part of the All Blacks until the next World Cup.
There will be, primarily because New Zealanders are largely swayed by the promise of youth and the sense of hope that new faces bring, a hefty number of analysts betting against Barrett being able to keep his test career alive for the next four years.
He’s 32 now, which means he’ll be 36 by the next World Cup and the odds of anyone that age being able to play well enough to merit All Blacks selection, are slim.
There have been a few in recent times who have played at that age – Dane Coles, Keven Mealamu and Brad Thorn – but they were in positions where strength and stamina were more important than speed.
And this is why many will doubt Barrett can go the distance in this coming World Cup cycle – his game is built on his speed – that uncanny ability of his to see space and motor into it.
It’s his searing acceleration that enabled him to effortlessly transition from first five to fullback, but for how many more years will he be able to cover the backfield and chase down wings as quick as Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse?
Anticipation and an ability to see the game unfold ahead of time can compensate for aging legs to some degree, but fullback is not a position anyone can play at the top level without being able to produce and sustain blistering pace.
It’s hard to imagine that he can go through this whole cycle as a fullback. The physical toll of the last decade is inevitably going to strike and if Barrett is to still be earning test caps in four years, it’s likely he’s going to have to make the transition back to the No 10 jersey again.
And this is where the weight of doubt sits against him in many minds as international rugby succumbed to a conservative virus six years ago which has convinced most of the world to box-kick and maul their way to victory.
This desire to play without the ball has squeezed out the playmaking high rollers and free spirits – no one more notably nullified than Barrett, who between 2016 and 2018 played the best rugby of his career as an ethereal No 10.
He was untouchable in that period, bringing what was essentially an unorthodox skillset to the role – or certainly, he didn’t rely on the same bag of tricks as most other 10s to be a brilliant play-maker.
His game at his peak was all about his ability to open defences with his running and in what will remain one of the more unbelievable statistics of the modern age, the All Blacks averaged 43 points a game in the 2016 Rugby Championship.
Defences worked out, though, that they had to get tighter and faster to shut him and the All Blacks down, and he’s never really been the same deadly force at No 10 since late 2018.
But that doesn’t mean he can’t find a way back to the summit of international rugby as a No 10, however unlikely some observers may feel that is.
That door is not shut and perhaps the greatest test of the Scott Robertson regime will come in project Barrett.
Can the new coaching team build a way of playing that facilitates a Barrett revival at No 10?
And can Barrett adapt and advance his portfolio to enable this transition to take place, by packaging astute game management, accurate kicking and calm decision-making around his natural instincts?
To all those who think this is an impossible dream, the rebuff is to look at the way Ireland’s former captain Johnny Sexton made himself the pre-eminent No 10 in the world between 2018 and 2023.
He was 33 in 2018 when he was named World Player of the Year and 38 at the World Cup just gone, where he was still orchestrating Ireland’s outstanding, multi-faceted attack, much of it coming off the back of his own running ability.
Last week, with Barrett’s future unknown and seemingly destined to be in Japan, the road looked clear for Damian McKenzie to establish himself as the All Blacks No 10 for the next World Cup cycle.
Now, there is the intriguing prospect of Barrett reinventing himself to re-establish himself as the All Blacks’ key playmaker.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and has written several books about sport.