Players of New Zealand celebrate after winning against South Africa in a 2022 Rugby Championship match held at the Ellis Park Stadium. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
Players of New Zealand celebrate after winning against South Africa in a 2022 Rugby Championship match held at the Ellis Park Stadium. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
OPINION:
Just one week ago, New Zealand thought it was witnessing the greatest coaching catastrophe in modern All Blacks history.
Now, with Ian Foster effectively endorsed as head coach through to the World Cup against all predictions and seemingly against the weight of evidence, one of the greatest fairy-tale comebackscould be about to be written.
The greatest redemption story of all may be about to unfold – one more dramatic and unlikely than the fall and rise of Graham Henry between 2004 and 2011.
One more dramatic than the incredible resurrection of South Africa under Rassie Erasmus who took a team that had fallen to a record 57-0 defeat to the All Blacks and 18 months later turned them into world champions.
No one should be in any doubt, that this time last week, Foster had no escape route. Too many losses had been posted, too many uncertain performances delivered where the All Blacks hadn't looked anything like the All Blacks.
It wasn't just that the All Blacks had lost to Ireland and France at the end of last year, and then again to Ireland twice and South Africa once this year, it was that they hadn't looked remotely like winning any of those five tests.
The All Blacks, as Foster himself pointed out on the day he was finally endorsed by his employer as the man to take the team to the World Cup, have encountered adversity before.
They have had bad patches, sometimes relatively prolonged, where performances have been sketchy and results more so.
But in the modern age, they haven't had a period as bad as the one they suffered between late October 2021 and mid-August 2022.
In 1998, when the All Blacks fell to five consecutive defeats, they were at least, with one exception, in the fight to win those.
The elusive win wouldn't come, but there was enough evidence in those defeats to at least believe it was just around the corner.
Anyone who saw the way the All Blacks folded in Dunedin against Ireland and then again in Wellington, before failing to offer any kind of constructive or considered attacking game in Mbombela, would have said they were a broken team.
That the All Blacks were confused, uncertain about their individual roles and collective ideas about where and how to attack.
Assistant coach Joe Schmidt (R) talks with Aaron Smith (L) during a New Zealand All Blacks Training Session at Grammar TEC Rugby Club. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
These were three performances so incohesive and meek and coming on the back of the two losses at the end of last year and the damning feedback about the assistant coaches, made it impossible to believe that Foster could survive in his head role through to the World Cup.
It may look like what saved Foster from the axe was the way the All Blacks fought back in the final 12 minutes to win at Ellis Park.
The depth of their resilience was impressive and commitment to the cause undeniable, but it would be wrong to believe that the New Zealand Rugby board are effectively gambling the All Blacks' World Cup hopes on those 12 minutes – hoping that they, and not the three defeats that proceeded victory at Ellis Park, are the true window into the soul of Foster's All Blacks.
What convinced them to stick with Foster is the obvious impact Jason Ryan has made as forwards coach since he arrived a month ago, but more significantly, the prospect of having Joe Schmidt on board in an active, hands-on, training ground role as attack coach.
Schmidt is the king-maker, the transformational element. He brings an attention to detail that has been missing in the set-up and so too will he bring a harder edge – a lower tolerance for standards that don't meet expectation.
The feedback from the players these past two years has been consistent – they feel the environment has been too comfortable, missing the sort of tension that high-performance teams need to thrive.
We live in a binary world where the board had to decide whether the All Blacks stood a better chance of winning the World Cup next year with Foster at the helm, or by bringing in Scott Robertson as head coach.
Again, it was the influence of Schmidt that persuaded the board to stick with Foster.
The draw is set up next year to pit the All Blacks against France and Italy in pool play and possibly Ireland and England in the knock-out rounds if they progress.
Joe Schmidt before the Blues Super Rugby Pacific match at Forsyth Barr Stadium. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
Schmidt spent seven years coaching Ireland in the Six Nations and he knows how to build gameplans to bring down France and England. He also knows inside secrets about Ireland, and all this will be invaluable next year.
And this is why the next year is going to be so fascinating, because it's possible now to see Foster completing his redemption story by winning the World Cup.
The board have taken a risk in retaining him but it is calculated and justified. People may not see that immediately because the process in getting to this point has been so clumsy and ham-fisted, but the All Blacks can win the World Cup if Foster is flexible and open-minded.
And that means they must evolve, adapt and turn up in France next year posing entirely different questions to the ones they have in the last 12 months.
They have to refresh their personnel, add some younger players and think more about revolution than evolution.
It's not that his All Blacks necessarily need a radical clean out of playing personnel, but there does need to be greater internal pressure applied on the senior players to hold their places.
The arrival of Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell and even Tyrel Lomax has changed the dynamic of the front-row and that's what fresh faces do – they can add energy, bring a sense of rejuvenation, and put older players on notice that their standards have to lift.
In short, the All Blacks need to operate a significantly more uncomfortable environment than they have.
There needs to be an edge, no one, not even Sam Cane, certain whether he'll play each week and the players have to believe that the boss is prepared to drop the biggest names if they underperform.
That ruthlessness hasn't been evident in Foster's tenure to date. But perhaps now, having survived against the odds and finally having gained the public backing of his chief executive and board, he'll feel more like a head coach in charge rather than one hanging on.
And with Schmidt and Ryan at his side, he'll have two strong voices challenging his decisions, asking pertinent questions, and bringing greater dynamism and clarity to the gameplan and selection.
Redemption is certainly possible. This coaching team could do the unthinkable and lead the All Blacks to a World Cup title in 2023, but there is no doubt that the NZR board have taken a leap of faith in even letting them try.
