Golf: Upsetting the Master plan

The most anticipated game of golf since Og the caveman hit a small rock with a stick tees off at Augusta National next week. Paul Lewis says that Tiger Woods could not possibly win the Masters after all that's happened. Could he...?

This isn't a major, it's a momentous. The 2010 Masters could truly be called the biggest tournament in the history of golf; where you almost literally can't see the tees for the Woods.

Eldrick Tont (Tiger) Woods, that is, whose comeback presence at Augusta National will overshadow everything else, even the golf.

For this Masters isn't just about the test of majors golf, it's a psychologists' dream. The pressure of the sport; the event; is tough enough on its own but Woods and his two main rivals, Phil Mickelson and Ernie Els, will be battling mental strength issues that would make most of us curl up in the foetal position, suck our thumbs and reach for our blankies.

It seems astonishing that Woods, making his way back to golf after his sex scandals, should be instituted as a 4-1 favourite for the Masters. After all, he hasn't won it since 2005 and the hurdles he faces make Frodo's trip to Mount Doom look like a walk down to the dairy for a milkshake.

But hang on a moment. In the five months since the world No 1 has been away on self-imposed exile while the world has laughed at him (Frodo - Lord Of The Rings; Tiger - Lord Of The Flings), there is really only one golfer - Els - who has signalled consistently that he might be a threat; and that only recently.

Woods should really have no right being favourite. It's impossible... isn't it?

The global ridicule, the outrage, the eyes of the world being on his every move and utterance; plus the fact that he is not terribly popular among his peers - all that heat should make him wilt and dissolve into a little puddle of sweat.

But he's not built like that. Woods has chosen to come back at Augusta for the very reason that its manicured environs and jealously guarded atmosphere of civility, etiquette and sophistication will cushion him from much of the intensity of disapproval and expectation.

This is a man, remember, who wears his superiority like a suit of armour. Look at tapes of his victories and he is a man alone on the golf course. He talks little to his playing partners; he is aloof; focused; intimidating; his very distance a reminder of the gulf between him and everyone else.

He is accustomed to shutting it all out. The crowds, the noise, the pressure, the cameras, the opposition. They don't exist. If he does what he does best, they don't exist even more.

Still and all, the game of golf being the impossible thing it is to predict and the terrible pressure of being a man with a secret life held up to global scrutiny must tell; even on the strongest psyche.

There have now been reports that his wife Elin will be filing for divorce soon - and some sections of the media have made much of the fact that she is not coming to Augusta, although why the woman would let herself be subject to the unblinking gaze of the prurient millions is beyond reason.

The sex scandal has developed a life of its own in the US. One of the alleged mistresses - one of the 15, though it might be 16, can't remember - recently released some steamy text messages supposed to have been from Woods.

Another is threatening to storm the course to confront Tiger and, if that doesn't work, is said to be considering stripping at a bar somewhere close to Augusta. Hmmm - she doesn't sound much like a relentless self-publicist and opportunist, does she?

But however hokey or transparent the revelations, this stuff must have an effect. Surely, Woods can't win at Augusta. Not with the whole world watching his every move; his toilet breaks; where he goes for dinner; how he reacts to even the slightest distraction. Is that a blonde on our peripheral vision? Is Tiger looking at her?

Golf is a sport where manners are paramount but, if you were his playing partner on the final 18 holes the all-too-easy sledge would be almost irresistible: "Hey, what you doing tonight, after the game? Want to grab a few cocktail waitresses... ?" It won't happen, of course, but Woods' whole being will be on red alert.

Yet it's all too possible that Woods will win the Masters. That same mental strength that will be challenged next week will also be applied in the direction of his two biggest rivals - Els and Mickelson.

Els has just won two PGA tournaments in a row, breaking a long and debilitating drought. After shaping as stern competition for Tiger in the early years, Els was cracked by Woods' cold ferocity on the golf course.

In 2000, Els finished runner-up to Woods in three of the four majors that year. In later years, even when Woods was out of the running, Els stumbled.

In one major, the cameras strayed on to Els sitting down, his back to the crowd after failing to win when perhaps he should have; when the opposition was not as tough as Tiger, nor indeed as Els himself.

He finished second - and the cameras showed a hunched, dejected, defeated Els; wounded in the head by another not-good-enough performance.

The latest two wins have shown that Els has recovered his nerve at the sharp end of a tournament. He has also re-arranged his approach to golf. Now in his 40s, Els has decided to downsize the number of psychologists and advisers he has while spending more time at home, watching the kids grow up. Jack Nicklaus did much the same thing and won three majors in his 40s.

Els has also grown his confidence by engaging Woods' former coach Butch Harmon; has found real form with a new, softer ball and the V-groove clubs which many pros feel give them more reliable flight.

His confidence is returning - but it hasn't faced Tiger yet.

Mickelson, on the other hand, has been almost a polar opposite. With his wife and mother both battling cancer, Mickelson's preparation has been patchy and unfocused.

His best placing this season is eighth, he shot a ropey 77 in the final round of the Arnold Palmer tournament (which Els won) and he is only 41st on the FedEx rankings and 51st on the money leaders chart.

Yet Mickelson can turn it on when the gods are with him. He will have huge support and sympathy from galleries who will be as unequivocal with Mickelson as they may be undecided with Woods.

And Lefty did something that very few people have ever done last month - he shot a 58. That's 58, as in strokes.

It was a practice round so it doesn't count officially but, even in practice on what Mickelson described as "a fun little course" at Palm Springs, a 58 is gobsmackingly good.

Only three people have ever hit a 59 in competition - Al Geiberger in 1977, Chip Beck (1991) and David Duval (1999). Nobody has ever hit a 58. Palm Springs ain't Augusta, of course, but he hit 12 birdies and an eagle. Typical Mickelson, too - he also hit two shots in the water. He has also engaged Harmon and the word out of their camp is that Phil is firing.

He too hasn't met the icy determination of Woods in full focus but the memories of their pairing in the final round of Augusta last year are still fresh. Woods froze Mickelson out. Barely spoke to him, acted as if he wasn't there.

The pair have a legendarily frosty relationship but Mickelson, apparently with a twinkle in his eye, responded the right way when asked what would happen if he was drawn to be Woods' partner again.

"I think it would be great," Mickelson deadpanned. "I'd love it."

Maybe this year, of all years, he would.

Whatever else happens at this year's Masters, golf will get a shot in the arm. Some estimates from within golf's inner sanctum suggest that TV audiences for the sport are down 50 per cent in Woods' absence. Networks have lost out on millions of dollars of advertising contracts. The same pros who don't always like Woods, need him. He brings bigger paydays.

One study of the stock prices of the seven public companies that had sponsorship deals with Woods lost a combined total of US$12 billion in their value a month after Woods said he was taking indefinite leave. There may not be a proven, direct link but the financial message is unmistakeable.

Woods is apparently hitting up a storm in practice but there's really only one comparable incident where a top golfer came back after a long absence and played in a major without bothering with a warm-up tournament.

In 1953, the great Ben Hogan returned to play at the Masters after a self-imposed sabbatical which had lasted since the Masters of 1951. He won the '53 Masters, the first of three majors that year.

Woods will like the symmetry; the challenge of that. He will like the odds set against him and he will like the echoes of Hogan.

He can't win, surely... but don't bet against it.

Four to watch
If it isn't going to be one of the big three who prevail at Augusta, the winner could come out of the following group:

Steve Stricker (US)
Has never won a major but has become the most consistent player on tour behind Woods after a breakthrough year in 2009. Has already won this season and has three other top-10 performances; finished in a tie for sixth (with Woods) in last year's Masters.

Angel Cabrera (Argentina)
Last year's champion. No form to speak of but he has already shown with his two majors wins that he can win when not expected to. A laid-back, calm temperament and capable of making clutch shots.

Retief Goosen (South Africa)
Two hard years in indifferent form seem to be behind him. Has five top-10 finishes in seven tournaments this year and is scoring well again. A tough, single-minded golfer, he has two majors wins and did well in the Masters in 2005, 2006 and 2007 (tied for third, tied for third and tied for second respectively).

Padraig Harrington (Ireland)
Not fancied by most for this but a golfer who has a great deal of belief now and who has won three majors, one in 2007 and two in his breakthrough year of 2008. Finished top 10 in the Masters of 2007 and 2008 before a less impressive 2009 saw him finish with six straight top-10 finishes. Could be poised to do well here.

Out of the rough
Roughies who could surprise with a top 5 finish or better.

Camilo Villegas (Colombia)
Can be brilliant on his day, and less than brilliant - but has now struck a very solid and consistent vein of form. Finished tied 13th in the Masters last year and may be ready to perform.

Hunter Mahan (US)
Remember Zach Johnson and Trevor Immelman? Well, this guy could be similarly little-known and a Masters champion. Has the game to do well (10th in the Masters last year).

Nick Watney (US)
Tall, good ball striker with good touch and on the way up. Has done well (11th and 19th) in the last two Masters.

Paul Casey (England)
Playing well in the US now; four top-10 finishes in four tournaments and has the game to tame Augusta - the only worry is his mental toughness.

Rory McIlroy (Ireland)
Over-hyped youngster (he's only 20), but there's no denying he has talent. Likes the big stage and could surprise.