"I played well and a good shot ended up having a bad break [when his ball ricocheted off the flag into the creek]. So it's not much. It's turning that tide and getting the momentum at the right time. That's what you have to do to win majors."
Woods was once above luck or fortune. He would ride the punches before delivering his own knockout blow. Indeed, his last major win saw him survive a bad break, quite literally. To think of Woods at Torrey Pines in 2008 and the blown anterior cruciate ligament and the stress fractures is to think of a golfer who simply did not obey the normal insurmountables.
Now he has to and therein lies the new reality for the 37-year-old.
The analysis is relentless. An old coach in Hank Haney - under whom he won eight of his 14 majors - criticises his preparation at the majors, while sports psychologists pinpoint the anxiety of a former champion who simply wants it too much.
It is not fair in one sense, as Woods has won four times this season, more than any of his rivals. But then, Woods is judged by a different benchmark and for him the five-year drought constitutes a disaster. Something must be blamed.
Woods has heard it all and sympathises with Rory McIlroy as the younger superstar comes under attack from the likes of Sir Nick Faldo for changing his equipment and losing his focus. Woods recalls when he was McIlroy's age and was the centre of the inquisition.
"I was getting questioned quite a bit in that era," he said, referring to the blank two major years after the 1997 Masters.
"I altered my swing a bit with Butch [Harmon] and people asked at that stage of my career why would you change something that won the Masters by 12. I think Rory's going through that now. Only he knows if it's for the betterment of his game."
Deep down Woods feels he knows what he is doing, that nothing much has changed and that eventually the majors will arrive with the consistency of yesteryear.
The contenders
Tiger woods (USA)
Age: 37
World ranking: 1
Worldwide wins: 90
Best result in a major: Won (1997, 2001, 2002, 2005 Masters; 2000, 2002, 2008 US Open; 2000, 2005, 2006 British Open; 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007 PGA Championship)
British Opens played: 16
Best British Open result: Won (2000, 2005, 2006)
Odds: $10
Why he can win: He's Tiger Woods. Already a four-time winner this year and a 14-time major champion.
Why he might not: Hasn't won a major in five years and comes into the tournament recovering from an elbow injury - just how fit is he?
Adam Scott (AUS)
Age: 33
World ranking: 4
Worldwide wins: 21
Best result in a major: Won (2013 Masters)
British Opens played: 13
Best British Open result: 2nd (2012)
Odds: $17
Why he can win: He all but won last year when he was the best player for 68 holes only to bogey home and hand the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. He's the Masters champion and has had seven top-15 finishes in last 10 majors including a win and two seconds.
Why he might not: Since his Masters win his game has gone off the boil with a small drop in focus and he was tied 45th and tied 57th his last two starts.
Rory McIlroy (NIR)
Age: 24
World ranking: 2
Worldwide wins: 10
Best Result in a major: Won (2011 US Open, 2012 PGA Championship)
British Opens played: 5
Best British Open result: T3 (2010)
Odds: $26
Why he can win: McIlroy has two majors already in the bag and he has talent to burn.
Why he might not: By his own standards McIlroy's form has been poor this year and his confidence is down with limited low rounds in 2013.
Phil Mickelson (USA)
Age: 43
Worldwide wins: 45
World ranking: 5
Best result in a major: Won (2004, 2006, 2010 Masters; 2005 PGA Championship)
British Opens played: 19
Best British Open result: T2 (2011)
Odds: $19
Why he can win: Phil the Thrill can really turn it on and the signs are good after he won the Scottish Open last week in similar conditions to Muirfield. Was tied second at recent US Open.
Why he might not: Outside the two top-three finishes, Mickelson has struggled in the links golf major. Fifteen of his 19 starts have been outside the top 20.
Ernie Els (RSA)
Age: 43
Worldwide wins: 66
World ranking: 13
Best result in a major: Won (1994, 1997 US Open, 2002, 2012 British Open)
British Opens played: 22
Best British Open result: Won (2002, 2012)
Odds: $26
Why he can win: He's the defending champion and last Open winner at Muirfield (2002). Has two wins and 10 top-10 finishes including three runner-ups and two thirds at the British Open. Also won in Europe last month and was T4 at US Open.
Why he might not: Els is ranked 141st in driving accuracy and 180th in greens in regulation on the US tour this year. While links golf is different, accuracy is still needed to avoid big numbers.