The US Open tees off on Friday morning (NZT) and Paul Lewis reports on how the hottest of favourites could yet be upset by a stroppy, punishing golf course and suggests some rank roughies for consideration.
Perhaps Tiger Woods - a prohibitive favourite for next week's US Open golf
tournament - said it best: "If they set up Bethpage Black the way we played the Open every day, I don't think anybody would play golf any more."
Bethpage is the public course which hosted the 2002 US Open and which played so tough only Woods finished under par for the tournament. Second-placed Phil Mickelson shot par. Enormous length, punishing rough and pressure-filled shots to some narrow fairways and blind greens are common.
This is golf for the big boys. If you like seeing clever professionals, used to target golf and able to play all sorts of fancy tricks, come apart under the sort of golf course intensity that undoes we mere hackers on a regular basis, this is the golf major for you.
Most pre-publicity about Bethpage Black suggests that it has been tweaked to be a little easier - with attention focused on the par four 10th, where the carry from the tee was so vast that the shorter hitters ended up in the rough, even though they hit their ball dead straight.
That's been shortened but, overall, Bethpage is actually longer than last time - about 200 metres in all - and several greens have been re-shaped to tempt the players into risk-and-reward shots.
Woods, after his come-from-behind, immaculate-driving win of last week's Memorial tournament, is such a hot favourite that it seems almost futile trying to discuss who might beat him to this crown - which would be his 15th major.
Accuracy is a key element at Bethpage. It might be long and have some debilitating obstacles, but Bethpage also requires pinpoint accuracy, giving the shorter hitters but fairway hitters a better show.
Second choice to Woods for most is Phil Mickelson, absent from the PGA tour in recent times after spending time with his sick wife. It's fair to say that a Mickelson without much game time can be either impossibly brilliant or impossibly frustrating. It will be interesting to see which version turns up.
Other than those two, according to the betting agencies, there really aren't any credible win' possibilities and most interest could centre on who makes it into the top five.
But golf's just not like that. Woods plus Bethpage does indeed indicate a lock but there is another possibility and, amazingly, he's paying 60-1, according to the TAB.
Angel Cabrera won the 2007 US Open at Oakmont, another nasty course set up to deal a blow to the egos of the pros - and for which Woods was a prohibitive favourite. Cabrera also beat Woods to the US Masters title earlier this year.
Since then he has done absolutely nothing, zilch, nada, nil and even zero. But the phlegmatic Cabrera is a big-match player. In the four tournaments he has played since the Masters in April, he has missed the cut three times.
In the fourth, the TPC Players' Championship at Sawgrass - regarded as the "fifth major" by many in the pros - he suddenly popped up again with a creditable 14th. After beginning his career by surprising knowledgeable judges that he didn't win as often as his talent suggested, Cabrera has gone to the other extreme - he is not often regarded as a threat when that talent and an unflappable temperament now suggest otherwise.
He is drawn in the same three as Woods - never easy - and winning back-to-back majors is no easy feat but it's not impossible, as Ireland's Padraig Harrington (30-1) showed when winning the British Open and the US PGA last year. He has since slipped out of the world top 10.
Of other possibilities, the USA's Jim Furyk (20-1) - in the midst of a hot run of form lately - England's Paul Casey (now No 3 in the world and 25-1) and Sweden's Henrik Stenson (40-1 and who impressively won that TPC at Sawgrass) loom largest, even though Furyk had a horror time at Bethpage in 2002, carding a 73 and an 80 as the wind blew, the rain lashed and the temperature plummeted.
Casey has always had the talent, the strength and length but has struggled with temperament and a tendency to blow up for at least one bad round. He has successfully curbed that this year and has become a lot more solid. A question mark remains about his ability to keep out of the Bethpage rough but there is no doubt he has the talent to win. The same can be said of Stenson, who will take a lot of confidence out of his TPC win, but the most interesting contenders could be the shorter hitters.
They include Tim Clark (South Africa), Luke Donald (England) and Justin Leonard (US) while other long-shot possibilities include Retief Goosen (South Africa) and Ian Poulter (England).
Goosen has already won two US Opens (in 2001 and 2004) and has shown recent signs of getting back the ice-cool toughness that typified his rise to prominence. He won a PGA tournament in March, his first for quite some time and, if he can tame his driver, will not be out of this.
Leonard, like Goosen, is regarded as being past his best but also has the game to do well at Bethpage. Never among the big hitters, he is usually highly accurate off the tee and hit a fine 68 at Bethpage back in 2002 before a 76 in the last round dumped him out of the top 10 and ruined his chances. Like Goosen, perfectly capable of adapting his game to this demanding course.
Clark will have lost a lot of friends for choking when he seemed to have the Crowne Plaza Invitational won late last month; ending up in a playoff which he promptly lost. However, he is another for whom accuracy is a staple diet and his steadiness and putting skills - when they are on - stamp him as a player who is just waiting to snatch a big one.
Donald is similar, never remarkably long off the tee but a grinder and a percentage player. He put together an extremely hot round of 64 for the Crowne Plaza before falling away in the latter rounds but is another who can adapt his game well for Bethpage (which is, thanks to the gods of golf, a different thing from saying that he will...). But perhaps the most interesting longer-shot prospect is Poulter, the flamboyant Englishman whose dress and temperament seemed unsuited to the US when he started playing on the PGA tour. Like Casey, he had some trouble with the psyche of the American fans but he has come extremely solid and has the ability to play some shots of near genius (as well as the ability to implode...).
This season has seen him become more impressive than implosive and his 60-1 odds in the US seem out of kilter for a man who finished top 20 at the Masters, who has missed only one cut since and who finished second to Stenson at the TPC at Sawgrass. If he can retain his accuracy off the tee, he is a fine scrambler and shotmaker and could be a real surprise.
SIX TO SURPRISE
Angel Cabrera
Strengths: Unflappable; sound temperament; can win majors.
Weaknesses: Can drift out of things if matters go against him.
Pedigree: Won US Open 2007 and Masters 2009.
Recent record: Cut in three of last four tournaments; 14th at TPC at Sawgrass.
Odds: 60-1 - ridiculous for one of such recent, big-occasion form.
Justin Leonard
Strengths: Accurate off the tee; fine touch with irons; can be deadly putter.
Weaknesses: Short off the tee; has lost his accuracy at times. Pedigree: Won British Open 1997.
Recent record: 32nd, 5th, 16th and 13th in lead-up tournaments - played well at Bethpage US Open in 2002.
Odds: 100-1.
Retief Goosen
Strengths: Tough, unflinching golfer; big match temperament.
Weaknesses: Has seemed to lose much of that fire & ice in recent years.
Pedigree: Won two US Opens, 2001 & 2004.
Recent record: 11th and 22nd in lead-up tournaments but coming solid.
Odds: 40-1.
Tim Clark
Strengths: Accurate, patient and clever golfer with the potential to win a big one soon.
Weaknesses: Choked when set to win last tournament; putting can stumble.
Pedigree: No majors, has never won a PGA tour event.
Recent record: 37th, 9th, 32nd, 2nd in lead-up tournaments.
Odds: 80-1.
Ian Poulter
Strengths: Strong self-belief, talented all-round golfer; playing well.
Weaknesses: Flamboyance can backfire; suspect temperament.
Pedigree: No majors, has never won a PGA tour event.
Recent record: 5th, 2nd, cut, 8th, 53rd in last five tournaments.
Odds: 60-1.
Luke Donald
Strengths: Grinding style suits Bethpage; playing well.
Weaknesses: Can drift out of contention when not under pressure; still coming back from injury.
Pedigree: Two PGA tour wins, two European tour wins.
Recent record: 2nd, 37th, 13th, 14th in last 4 tournaments.
Odds: 60-1.
Tiger Woods' only challenger at Bethpage will be Phil Mickelson, say the betting agencies. Photo / AP
The US Open tees off on Friday morning (NZT) and Paul Lewis reports on how the hottest of favourites could yet be upset by a stroppy, punishing golf course and suggests some rank roughies for consideration.
Perhaps Tiger Woods - a prohibitive favourite for next week's US Open golf
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