When the big guns start bombing Baltusrol at the 87th US PGA championship - and the final major of the golf season - on Thursday night (NZT), it might be time again to reflect on the enormity of Michael Campbell's US Open win, holding off Tiger Woods and blocking the world's best golfer from the highly prized Grand Slam.
Woods is favourite for the PGA title at Baltusrol, and had Campbell (also playing next week) not intervened, Woods would be looking at the Slam after winning the Masters and the British Open this year. Woods is favoured not just because of his recent form but because Baltusrol seems to be the perfect course for him.
A 7400-yard brute, Baltusrol is a par 70 which favours the longer hitters. Its 650-yard, par-five 17th, the longest hole in a major, is an example. In a practice round this week, even Phil Mickelson declared he could not reach the green in two. Considering Mickelson is one of the longest hitters in the game, it would seem Baltusrol and No 17 have defeated the march of technology, for the moment anyway.
"I certainly can't get it there in two so I'm playing it as a three-shotter," said Mickelson. "It's a tough hole and guys can have a lot of problems if they miss the fairway."
Yes sir. Many of Baltusrol's fairways have been shaved in width by 25 metres and the rough is long and punishing. Big-hitting John Daly became the first of only a few players to reach 17 in two in 1993 - but then the hole measured only (only?) 620 yards.
Making life harder is the fact that Baltusrol has not hosted a major since the 1993 US Open, meaning most of the current professionals have never played there.
And it's not just 17 that shapes as a test. Two of the par fours measure over 500 yards and two of the par-threes are 220 yards or more.
The combination of length and direction needed seems to point to Woods - although it may also hint at a bit of an Achilles heel.
Last week, at the Buick Open, Woods had seemingly given up the chase of Vijay Singh as his closest rival this year pulled away after a wobbly Woods start to the fourth round.
Woods, usually buttoned up tight, focusing only on golf and treating all around him with a kind of professional disdain, relaxed to the extent that he was flashing smiles, joking with the gallery, lolling in a chair on a tee in an extremely un-Tigerish way and generally displaying body language that said: "I can't win this, so I don't care."
Then, with Singh battling, Woods produced an eagle and two birdies in four holes and had the scent of Singh's trail. Woods stepped up to the 18th with his driver and produced one of those massive, back-wrenching whacks at his golf ball that would knock a hole in a passing tank.
Only it went right. Way right. So right that Woods was playing his next shot from the furthest reaches of the neighbouring fairway.
This was significant in that Woods' much-discussed swing changes have mostly corrected his tendency to spray it right when he gives it everything. Here it was, pressure on and a chance of victory (albeit a small one) and the world No 1 slipped into an old error.
Whether this will give the field at Baltusrol much hope remains to be seen. But, at practice this week, Tiger was seen bombing the range with his driver and holding little back again. The lingering doubt remains that Woods hitting the ball at 85 per cent strength is a better golfer than Woods at 100 per cent strength and his hopes of his third major this year may depend on whether he can control his ego and resist the big-club challenge of Baltusrol.
As a further illustration, Woods is second in the PGA tour stats for driving length but 178th in accuracy, although the latter stat probably does not take into account more recent improvements in his swing and game.
As for Campbell, his preparation for Baltusrol has hardly been ideal - spent mostly in New Zealand at his homecoming - but there is no doubt that he has reacted well to winning the US Open and has not shown any signs of 'one-hit-wonderitis' in some reasonably strong showings following the major.
Singh, the defending champion, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen and Mickelson are most favoured outside of Woods but Mickelson has been quiet since his breakthrough Masters win last year, Goosen has hit a troubled patch or two and Garcia hasn't managed to break through in the top events.
So, if not Woods, Singh (who took a lot of confidence from last week's towelling of Tiger) could be the man to beat Baltusrol, with Jim Furyk, Adam Scott and David Toms also threats. Or the winner could be as much of a surprise as Campbell was.
SIX 'ROUGHIES' TO WATCH
Robert Allenby (Australia)
Coming into form, is a long, straight hitter. Fourth in Buick.
Chris Di Marco (USA)
A good record in majors, a tough golfer and in good form.
Jim Furyk (USA)
Hardly a roughie but won't get mentioned in the same breath as the big five. Has major-winning consistency.
Mark Hensby (Australia)
Arguably the most improved golfer in the world this year, outside of Campbell. Has won on both sides of the Atlantic and in hot form.
Kenny Perry (USA)
Long, straight and has inventive iron shots. Coming right at the right time.
Geoff Ogilvy (Australia)
Belts the bejesus out of it and is curing his tendency to stray off the fairways. Rough chance if he stays straight.
Golf: A licence to drive
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