Phil Tataurangi: Open contenders' eyes on the skies

Phil Tataurangi

What will be going through the players' minds when they get up this morning for the start of the New Zealand Open at Gulf Harbour?

The first thing they will think about is the weather forecast. Where's the wind coming from and is there any rain expected?

Their thoughts on the course and their prospects will have been crystallised by what they have seen over the past two days. Yet the weather will play a large part in their ability to execute certain shots.

Some will fancy their chances and will be feeling good and looking forward to stepping up to the first tee. Others may have found the course layout doesn't necessarily suit them, but will have worked out a plan to give themselves the best chance.

The two days leading up to the start of a professional event are critical, especially given most will be playing Gulf Harbour for the first time.

Tuesday was a key preparation day, when the players try to pick the eyes out of the course and see where to be aggressive and where to be cautious.

Most will have played a practice round but the day was hot and sunny with little wind and may have given a false impression of what lies ahead.

There was a light sea breeze for yesterday's pro-am so that at least gave the players a taste of what they might encounter.

Take the 12th hole, which has an elevated tee and green but drops into a large hollow at fairway level. Although many tees at Gulf Harbour allow some room for error, it's still good for players to see how their ball might be affected if the wind is up.

The players and their caddies will have their yardage notes for each hole that include a range of different information.

For example, a 135m shot on the 11th is going to play differently to the same distance shot on the 18th. One is uphill, one downhill; one predominantly into the wind, one invariably with a tailwind, and so on.

Players will have been looking at their strategy from each tee, choosing targets for where they should be positioning the ball. Just as importantly, they will be working out where they don't want to be.

They will be picking up a feel for the greens, trying to assess the speed and breaks, as well as getting a rough idea of pin placements, which will most likely get harder as the week progresses.

A large part of determining who will succeed on Sunday will come down to course management. In layman's terms, that means playing smart, thoughtful golf.

Players need to be disciplined, to play to their strengths and not attempt shots they aren't confident of pulling off.

Yesterday was pro-am day, a final chance to do any tinkering in a semi-competitive environment.

Some would have been double-checking favourable positions on certain fairways, or taking particular notes of whether the greens have changed much from 24 hours earlier.

My tip?

Craig Parry must be favourite, even though it's rare to win back-to-back events anywhere.

He's in form, he's a classy player and he's won on all types of courses.

When you watch "Pazza" he doesn't possess a classic swing, but that doesn't matter. The only barometer that counts is getting the ball from tee to green and into the hole in the most efficient manner. Parry has a fantastic short game and he knows his limitations. He will be tough.

David Smail is New Zealand's best chance.

His tie for 18th at the Heineken Classic last weekend in Melbourne will have done him good, knocking any rustiness out of his game. He's playing well, he's in good health, he's our most in-form golfer and I see the course suiting him pretty well.

Don't be surprised, though, if Michael Campbell is there on Sunday. "Cambo" is not in the best of nick but he elevates himself to a higher plane when playing in front of the whanau.

And I would expect a clutch of young Europeans to challenge hard. They may not be household names in New Zealand but they are no mugs and you can be sure the wind won't worry them.

It promises to be a fascinating four days.

* Phil Tataurangi is one of New Zealand's leading professional golfers.