Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory: A-League Men’s semifinal first leg - kickoff time, expert predictions and odds

Online Sport Editor·NZ Herald·

12 May, 2024 05:01 AM5 mins to read

Finn Surman (centre) and his Wellington Phoenix teammates celebrate his late goal that gave them a 1-0 win over Melbourne Victory last month. Photo / Photosport

The Wellington Phoenix men’s side will be looking ahead, rather than at history, this weekend as they strive to go where no Phoenix team has before – to the A-League grand final.

In eight attempts at finals football, none has resulted in a title. But no Phoenix team has had a season this successful to date.

Finishing second in the league and missing out on the Premier’s Plate on the final matchday of the regular season meant a direct ride to the semifinals and skipping the elimination final, which has seen the downfall of the Nix in their past five finals appearances.

The Melbourne Victory beat crosstown rivals Melbourne City in a penalty shootout to emerge from their elimination final and earn a semifinal against the Phoenix.

But how do A-League semifinals work? How did the results play out during the season? What do the experts predict will happen? Here’s all you need to know.

When does the Phoenix v Victory semifinal first leg kick off?

Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne

Kickoff time: 6pm NZT

How to watch: Sky Sport 3 will have coverage from 5pm

For those making the trek across the ditch, or for Melbourne-based Phoenix fans, the Wellington Phoenix Melbourne Supporters group will be hosting a pre-match function at the Beer Deluxe, Fed Square, from 3pm NZT (1pm AEST)

How did the results play out in the regular season?

The Phoenix made the trip to AAMI Park on matchday 13 in late January and the Victory were one kick away from taking the chocolates. A Tim Payne red card in first-half injury time reduced the Nix to 10 men and from that point the Victory piled on the pressure with 64 per cent possession and 19 shots on goal. They eventually scored in the 79th minute and looked to have taken the three points until Phoenix captain Alex Rufer converted a 96th-minute penalty to save a point.

In the return fixture, there was more late drama as Phoenix defender Finn Surman directed a 96th-minute header goalward that deflected off Victory counterpart Roderick Miranda and into the net, sending the home fans into mayhem. That win for the Phoenix secured their first top-two regular season finish.

How do A-League semifinals work?

The highest-placed team in the semifinal gets to nominate its preference to host either the first or second leg. The Phoenix finished second and the Victory third, so the Wellingtonians earned preference and decided to play at home in the second leg.

This may seem trivial but the mechanics of A-League semifinals make it important. The away-goals rule does not apply in the A-League, so playing at home in the second leg gives the Phoenix an advantage should the scores be level after 90 minutes.

In that event, 30 minutes of extra time would be split across two 15-minute halves. Should that not be enough to find a winner, a penalty shootout will decide who goes into the grand final.

What do the experts predict?

NZ Herald’s Bonnie Jansen: “The Nix won’t lose in Melbourne. They’ve been too strong defensively all season to not come away with at least a draw. On the contrary, finding a win will be a difficult ask. Victory are built for the playoffs, they’ve finished third or higher eight times. You just have to look at their elimination final match where they played 80-plus minutes with 10 men and still managed to get the job done.

“They’re familiar with the pressures and expectations of an A-League semifinal – the Phoenix aren’t. However, heading home to the Cake Tin with a slight advantage is all they really need.”

Newstalk ZB’s Jason Pine: “If you offered the Phoenix a draw, they’d bite your hand off for it; coming home to what’ll be an absolute cauldron at Sky Stadium next Saturday night with the tie level will be an ideal scenario for the Nix, who’ll totally believe they can beat Victory on home soil, as they did in the pouring rain a few weeks ago.

“Expect a reasonably conservative approach from Wellington in the first leg on Sunday with huge focus given to defusing the attacking threats of Bruno Fornaroli and Daniel Arzani. Having said all that, Wellington have been dangerous on the counter-attack all season and don’t need many opportunities to find the net. I think this one finishes goalless, setting up a blockbuster second leg next Saturday night.”

What are the coaches saying?

Phoenix coach Giancarlo Italiano says AAMI Park is not an easy venue to play at but he and his side are relishing the challenge.

“They’re the one club I wanted to play in the semifinal at AAMI because their fans make an electric atmosphere and, if we have a good travelling contingent as well, it will be a great feel and a great experience for the boys.”

Because there is no away-goals rule, a win or a draw in the first leg will see them as favourites to advance to the grand final.

“In the Champions League, which no longer has away goals, the advantage is with the team that is more brave and therefore playing in front of a home crowd is like a half-a-goal advantage and we’ll take that mentality.

“We’re going to go into these games with nothing to lose.

“I feel I’ve spent my whole season trying to take that pressure off the players and this will be no different.”

Victory coach Tony Popovic hopes their fans will get behind them after the shootout win over Melbourne City.

“We just want to keep on winning. We’re excited that we’re in a big game again in Wellington and credit to them, they’ve had a fantastic season.

“Hopefully there will be a big crowd and they can lift us. I’m sure it’ll lift them and let it be a fantastic game with us coming out on top.”