Soccer: Herbert set to retain first-leg formation

Don't be surprised to see All Whites coach Ricki Herbert stick with the same team and formation that lined up against Bahrain last month.

They used a 3-4-3 in Manama in the first leg of the World Cup playoff with three centre backs and three strikers. It was a way for Herbert to play what he thought was his best XI.

It worked in that match. The main goal was to come away with the tie still alive and 0-0 was about as good as could be expected.

But it often resembled something closer to a more defensive 5-2-2-1. It was a formation that focused on defensive stability and getting a couple of big bodies forward in the hope of nicking an away goal.

A different approach will be needed in Wellington. New Zealand need to win because any scoring draw will see Bahrain go through on the away goals rule.

The All Whites need to be more attacking than in Manama and that's why a more conventional 4-4-2 appeals.

Leo Bertos operated as a right wing-back in the first game, which saw him defend more often than attack. He did a decent job but it would be a waste if he was required to perform a similar duty.

Bertos is New Zealand's most attacking player and he needs to run at defenders in advanced positions to be effective.

Playing him wide on the right with a right back behind him would allow him to do that.

The problem though, and it is a big problem, is that New Zealand don't have a right back that can be fielded with confidence.

David Mulligan has played there but is not a natural defender and was exposed badly at times in June's Confederations Cup. Aaron Scott performed well in the final game against Iraq but this is not the time for an inexperienced NZFC player.

Stephen Old was a possibility, given he is playing regularly at right back for Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premier League, but he was overlooked for this squad.

Ben Sigmund is the only other option but Herbert seems unwilling to move him from his favoured position of centre back.

Consequently, Sigmund is likely to line up beside Ryan Nelsen and Ivan Vicelich in a back three.

If Bertos is to play on the right side of a midfield four with only three defenders behind him, he needs to be given more of a licence to push forward. He needs to get the ball in the opposition's half, not his own, and that is going to be the big challenge in a 3-4-3.

Another reason for Herbert's inclination to stick with the same team as the first leg is that it again allows him to play his three first-choice strikers.

Changing to a 4-4-2 would mean one of Shane Smeltz, Rory Fallon, or Chris Killen missing out, possibly Killen.

Fallon proved a handful for Bahrain, who struggled to cope with his height and awkwardness in the first leg. Even when he drew two defenders, he usually still came out on top.

Smeltz could also play wide in a 4-4-2 but that would be a waste of his scoring talents. He is a poacher and needs to be in and around the box.

Michael McGlinchey put forward a good case for inclusion. The Wellington-born Scotsman was excellent when he came on as a substitute in the first leg and has been in good form for the Central Coast Mariners in the A-League.

But he looks destined to play an impact role off the bench if needed.

It will be a big gamble if Herbert sticks with a 3-4-3. It could backfire or it could get them through to the World Cup.

The stakes couldn't be any higher.