Soccer: All Whites have a mountain to climb

Ricki Herbert

As the story goes, Ryan Nelsen passed on doing cartwheels of joy when New Zealand Soccer boss Graham Seatter rang to say an international had been arranged for the All Whites in June.

But the Blackburn Rovers defender's interest rose markedly when the opponents were revealed as World Cup holders, five-time winners and 2006 favourites Brazil, with their galaxy of stars like Ronaldinho, Adriano and Ronaldo.

Anecdotal perhaps, but a telling indication of the bumps, large and small, that the All Whites will endure in what is being billed as "The Road To South Africa", a campaign which at its highest point would see New Zealand in the 2010 World Cup finals.

A mountain to climb, for sure, and one that many predict will end up on a ledge somewhere on the side of the hill.

But the All Whites did the job in the early 1980s, so why not again?

Current coach Ricki Herbert made his All Whites debut in the 4-0 victory over Mexico in Auckland in 1980, the friendly that signalled John Adshead's side might be special.

They were on the road to the 1982 World Cup finals in Spain of course, even if no one dared say so at the time.

Those All Whites of old were so nondescript that radio coverage was limited to progress reports on an Auckland station, even though a running commentary was beamed back to Mexico.

The latest journey started live but hesitatingly on television against Malaysia in Christchurch last Sunday.

On a rock-hard QEII Stadium surface, the All Whites blasted, lobbed and skewed 28 shots towards goal, and landed only one, against a team that shares a world ranking in the 120s.

The most encouraging statistic of the match might have been in the stands, where 10,000 souls turned up.

The McGillicuddy Serious Party once listed an All Whites victory as an election promise; in the past three years an All Whites match at home would have qualified as an election bribe.

So for Herbert and his crew, the journey itself is as important as the destination, as they look to re-establish New Zealand soccer's credentials and visibility.

It is a sport that desperately needs to be seen, nothing - not even the unlikely sight of a resurgent Knights - could match the national team progressing towards a goal.

Herbert says the Nelsen anecdote is news to him. Yet it does still tell a story.

Herbert's journey has already taken him to Blackburn, and seen him contact other major clubs, to fly the flag and show his face.

He talked with Blackburn chairman John Williams and commercial manager Ken Beamish, after the All Whites played Australia at Fulham last June.

"Premiership clubs like that understand World Cup commitments, and the qualifiers are played in a Fifa window where the clubs have to release the players. But those clubs struggle when it comes to releasing players for friendlies," says Herbert.

The players also know where their bread is buttered of course.

With New Zealand players spread across America, Central Europe, Scandinavia, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, no one is underestimating the problems ahead.

So just what direction will this road take?

Matches against Chile in April and then the Geneva date with Brazil are early jewels in the crown, although given the scrappy displays against Malaysia, Brazil in World Cup mode could inflict a crushing defeat on these (or any) All Whites.

Away matches against Charlton Athletic and Crystal Palace are on the schedule. And Seatter is promising many more friendlies to help prepare the World Cup squad and draw a crowd.

Instead of the tournament system used for the past few World Cups, the qualifying will take place through a series of matches over 18 months.

At this point, New Zealand is preparing for 10 initial World Cup qualifying matches, played home and away, in a six-team Oceania group. They are scheduled for October and November of 2007 and 2008, and in March 2009.

With Australia having quit Oceania for Asia, New Zealand will be hotly favoured to win the zone. The opposition will include Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Tahiti.

The winner of a preliminary tournament between American Samoa, Cook Islands, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and Tonga will be the sixth team.

Vanuatu's upset 4-2 win over New Zealand in Adelaide during the 2004 Oceania Nations Cup, the World Cup qualifying tournament, is a reminder that the All Whites cannot afford to be caught off guard even though they will be heavily favoured to win the zone.

Herbert and/or his assistants Brian Turner - his Mt Wellington colleague and room mate for that 1980 Mexican game - and Stu Jacobs are likely to visit the island nations as part of the preparation.

"No one has given those countries the credit they deserve for moving forward," says Herbert.

"People in New Zealand struggle to come to terms with the fact that Fifa has invested in those places, given them more professional environments with academies, better pitches etc.

"I don't know if we've scouted over there in the past, I wouldn't think so, but we were surprised in the last [Oceania] Nations Cup and we can't have that happen again.

"We've got to win Oceania, as simple as that, which will get us to the Confederations Cup, which is my minimum requirement."

If that drawn out Oceania qualifying system brings the right result, the All Whites are scheduled to play two matches, home and away, against the fifth placed team from South American, or possibly Asia. The winner goes to South Africa.

This is the point where Australia edged out Uruguay to make this year's finals in Germany, but who would be bold enough to suggest that the All Whites could do the same?

However, Herbert says there is talk that instead of playing a South American team, the Oceania winners would go into an Asian group with maybe three other teams. If this was the case, the Oceania qualifying system would be condensed.

The famous 1982 All Whites, with Herbert in the heart of the defence, played a record 15 games to make the Spanish finals. If an Asian group qualifying route is introduced, the current All Whites would end up playing 18 World Cup qualifiers.

Herbert says: "The Asian qualifying system is preferable to my point of view. The South American route has proved very, very difficult - Australia made it this time but it was their third attempt.

"Until the Malaysian game we hadn't played at home for 3 1/2 years and we only had one game last year.

"So, wouldn't it be fantastic to have 18 World Cup qualifying games?

"If the public thought there was a programme of that quantity, it would be something to really get behind."

The series against Malaysia has brought a mixed start to the campaign. A series win was imperative, and the victories in Christchurch and Auckland achieved that.

But New Zealand, admittedly minus a handful of stars like Nelsen, Simon Elliott and Ivan Vicelich, looked well short of being able to foot it with a top South American side which, after all, is the ultimate name of this game.

New Zealand teams have, after all, been able to crush opponents like Malaysia in the past.

Herbert talked up the number of chances New Zealand created, but the squandering of those chances is a major concern.

When it really counts, the All Whites will have to take advantage of far fewer and more difficult opportunities. The whole campaign may turn on the ability to turn one half chance into a goal.

More than anything, the All Whites will need to go into games confident that they have players who can put the ball away, as the likes of Steve Woodin and Wynton Rufer were able to more than 20 years ago.

If South Africa, and at least the Confederations Cup, is the broad view, Herbert has had his eyes glued to the small screen in the past week or so.

He spent 10 hours just studying the first Malaysian match, in the way he has studied the game to the nth degree since his 84th and last international 16 years ago.

Along the way he attained a prized UEFA A Pro licence. To spend a couple of hours talking with him reveals not only his dedication to coaching soccer but his knowledge of the sport's statistics.

For instance: about one third of all goals in internationals are scored from set plays - penalties, free kicks, corners, throw ins etc; a high percentage of goals (around 30 per cent), come from moves involving five passes or less; only 6 per cent of goals are scored from crosses delivered near the touchline, but that rises to 27 per cent when they are made from shorter distances.

One conclusion is that sides need to be able to attack on the counter, to create opportunities when opponents have not had time to set their defences. New Zealand showed some spark in this area against Australia in Fulham yet still failed to find the back of the net.

On this score alone, the series against Malaysia delivered what many would have suspected anyway: That an inexperienced All Whites squad has promise, but a long way to go.