Martin Devlin: Statistics show it won't take a genius to predict the winner of this year's Fifa World Cup

Argentina's Lionel Messi controls the ball during a friendly. Photo / AP

The Fifa World Cup kicks off this weekend in Russia, the undisputed number one sporting event on the planet, bigger than any of its contenders, generating more revenue coverage and eyeballs watching than all the other pretenders.

And while each of the 32 nations qualified might kid themselves they have a chance, realistically and statistically, barely one quarter of them actually do.

Bear with me here as we roll a few facts and figures.

In 20 previous tournaments there's only ever been eight different winners
with five of those - Brazil, Uruguay, Italy, Germany and Argentina - having won 17 of the previous 20 Cups between them, while only four other countries outside those past winners have even made it through to a final.

So in 88 years of competition just 12 different names have contested the
20 separate finals with of those 12 now back again for Round 21 in Russia.

Translated there are 24 teams present who've not only never made a final but of that 24
only seven of them have ever made a semi-final, with the last of those being South Korea
back in 2002.

Meaning even if you know nothing at all about the game, the sport, the event, you can still sound like an absolute expert by confidently telling your friends that the winner will definitely be one of those who've either been there and done it or won it before.

And mathematically, statistically, historically, traditionally you're $1.10 and closing fast.

Because when it comes to the business end of this tournament there are precious few upsets, so no great surprise to find that four past winners - Brazil, Germany, Spain and France - are also this year's raging favourites.

The Devlin Radio Show is on Radio Sport and NewstalkZB from noon to 3pm every Saturday and Sunday.